Numerical Simulation of Synoptic Condition on a Severe Sand Dust Storm

By using observational data and MM5, an observational analysisand numerical study was conducted on the synoptic condition of a severe dust storm that was caused by a Mongolian cyclone whichoccurred from 6 to 8 April 2001. Results illustrated thatthe cyclogenesis was due to the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) advection in the upper troposphere and the terrain modifiedbaroclinicity in the mid-lower troposphere. The Altai-Sayan complex of mountains blocked the lower level cold air and made the isentropic surface sharply steep. When the air slid down along the isentropic surface the increasing of baroclinicity anddecreasing of stability blew up the vertical vorticity development.The formation of the dust storm was a result of a cyclonic cold front passing across the area. The occurrence of this dust stormwas closely related to the strong surface wind, which was accompanied by a cold front passing, rather than the cyclogenesis, itself. Hence, the reason for the pre-front dust storm formulation was the formation of heating convection. Reasons behind the formation of a black storm (visibilitylower than 50 m), which occurred in the mid-north part ofInner Mongolia, lay in several aspects. Firstly, in thisarea the surface wind was strong, a direct result of thedownward transport in mid-lower troposphere. Secondly,the cold front passed over the effected area near sunsetso the air obtained much more surface heating to form adeeper mixed layer (ML). Thirdly, cooperation between thelower level wind and the terrain made the atmosphere inthis area and acquired the maximum advective contributionnecessary to form a deep post-front ML. The sensitivityexperiment revealed that surface heat flux was important to the frontal lifting. In addition, the forcing of surface heating wasalso seen as the primary forcing mechanism of frontogenesis. Meanwhile, removal of the surface heat flux made the atmosphericstratification became stable and the pre-storm ML very shallow,which weakened the strength of the dust storm.     

西北地区沙尘暴引发的荒漠化问题

从西北地区继1993～1995年连续3a出现沙尘暴之后，1996年甘肃和内蒙古西部的阿盟等地再次遭到沙尘暴的袭击入手，分析了沙尘暴发生的原因，指出它归根结底是荒漠化的直接后果。概述了荒漠化的状况及危害，并分析了其成因。     

Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

Dust Storms are an Indication of an Unhealthy Environment in East Asia

Dust storms frequently occur in Mongolia and in northern China. Each year there are 30 to 120 dusty days in source regions of Mongolia and 14–20 dusty days on the Korean Peninsula. Intense sand storms and associated dust falls produce environmental impacts in East Asia. This paper discusses the environmental degradation in Mongolia and the social, economic and atmospheric impacts of dust storms in the sink area. The impact of dust storms on environmental compartments as well as their direct and indirect consequences to basic resources like water and energy demand and supply is explained. Governments are encouraged to take appropriate action in specified regions. For monitoring dust storms there is a need for international cooperation to combat growing environmental and human security concerns.     

Defining the Diurnal Pattern of Snowmelt Using a Beta Distribution Function

Snow is an important component of the hydrologic cycle for many regions worldwide. In addition to vital water resources, snowmelt can be important for forest ecosystem dynamics and flood risk. However, standard design events in the United States lack a design snowmelt event, including only precipitation events, though snowmelt has been shown to be larger than rainfall. In this article, we present a method using hourly snow water equivalent data to develop and test a function for representing the diurnal pattern of snowmelt. A two‐parameter beta distribution function is modified for the purposes of this study and found to fit the pattern of snowmelt well with a root mean squared error of 0.008. Soil moisture sensors were additionally utilized to assess the timing of the snowmelt water outflow from the base of the snowpack that supports the shape of the function, but suggests that the timing of losses recorded on snow pillows lag as much as 3 h. Further testing of the function showed the shape of the function to be accurate. The methods developed and tested in this paper can be applied for design purposes comparing snowmelt and rainfall events or to improve hydrological models investigating processes such as streamflow or groundwater recharge.     

Evaluating Sediment Stability at Sites with Historic Contamination

The stability of cohesive sediment deposits during a rare storm is a critical component in the evaluation of remedial options at a contaminated sediment site. Estimating scour depths during a rare storm, and the resulting contaminant concentrations in the surficial layer of the bed, is necessary for comparing the efficacy of various remedial alternatives. Evaluation of sediment stability is accomplished using sediment transport analyses that employ quantitative procedures. Qualitative analyses or conceptual models can be useful for developing and validating quantitative analysis tools; however, qualitative techniques alone generally are insufficient for conducting defensible remedial alternative evaluations. The level of analysis used for a specific site depends on data availability, required level of accuracy, and time and budget constraints. A tier 1 analysis involves the use of approximate equations to produce order-of-magnitude estimates of scour depths during a rare storm. The second tier of this analysis scheme employs the development and application of a sediment transport model to evaluate bed stability. State-of-the-science sediment transport models have been effectively used as management tools for evaluating remedial options at several contaminated sediment sites. It should not be presumed that rare storm events cause catastrophic impacts at the site under review. Two case studies demonstrate that a rare storm is not necessarily catastrophic; significant increases in surficial bed concentrations caused by reexposure of elevated concentrations buried at depth in the bed will not necessarily occur during a rare storm. However, it is important to note that sediment stability is site-specific.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS – A COMPARATIVE STUDY1

ABSTRACT. Unit hydrographs derived by using two methods, linear programming and least squares, are compared. Test data comprise rainfall and runoff information from four storms over the North Branch Potomac River near Cumberland, Maryland. The mathematical bases of these methods for unit-hydrograph derivation are explained. The linear programming method minimizes the sum of absolute deviations, and the least squares method minimizes the sum of the squares of deviations. Computer subroutines are readily available for application of these methods. The unit hydrographs derived with the two methods are practically the same for storms 2 and 3, but differ somewhat for storms 1 and 4. However, the reconstituted direct surface runoff hydrographs are similar to those observed with the exception of the hydrograph for storm 4 which had a relatively more non-uniform rainfall excess of a considerably larger duration.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF ACCURATE CURVE NUMBERS IN THE ESTIMATION OF STORM RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Storm runoff as calculated by the runoff curve number method is shown to be of varying sensitivity to both input rainfall and curve number. Using an assumed input error of 10%, a runoff error chart is given. Up to about 9 inches of rainfall, runoff is more sensitive to curve number than to rainfall. The importance of accurate curve number selection in this range is stressed.     

低影响开发对城市内涝节点雨洪控制效果研究——不同降雨特性下的情景模拟

以中国福建省福州市晋安区解放溪流域高密度居民住宅区为例,针对不同降雨重现期、降雨历时和雨峰系数的降雨情景,利用PCSWMM模型模拟该地区的雨洪情况,并运用模型的低影响开发（LID）模块,研究7种不同LID用地布局情景对研究区内涝节点的雨洪控制效果.情景模拟结果表明：在不同降雨情景下,各LID用地布局情景会使节点的洪峰流量减小、积水时间减少、积水深度变小;植被浅沟措施和植被浅沟&绿色屋顶组合措施会使节点SS峰值浓度高于现状用地,其余布设情景下,SS峰值浓度均减小.LID措施对节点流量和水质的控制效果在低降雨重现期和长降雨历时的降雨情景下较为有效.在单个LID布设情景中,渗透铺装措施控制最佳,而组合LID布设情景中,渗透铺装&植被浅沟&绿色屋顶是最佳的组合控制措施.研究结果可为南方城市居民区实施海绵城市建设提供技术支持,并为地方制定相关规范和标准提供参考和借鉴.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach ( [Van Koningsveld et al., 2005] and [Van Koningsveld et al., 2007] ) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.