Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

网上职业安全教育培训刍议

通过对网上培训的介绍及网上教育系统的分析，提出了网上安全培训系统的发展方向，对网上职业安全教育培训系统建立和实现形式提出了看法。     

海洋环境中光合色素分析方法研究与应用进展

根据国内外的文献,综述了海洋环境中光合色素分析方法的发展状况,指出了其分析方法在发展过程中创新的主要方面,并对光合色素分析在赤潮监测、藻类的化学分类及生物碳生物量和矿物质通量方面的应用进行了展望。     

TFT-LCD制造企业节能减排管理模式研究

节能减排是企业可持续发展的重要保障.TFT-LCD制造企业以合肥某光电科技有限公司第8.5代TFT-LCD项目为例,通过强化组织、领导,加强节能宣传和培训,提高节能减排意识,通过建立健全节能减排管理体系,从能源计量、节能奖惩、加强重点能源消耗管控等方面完善体制,层层剖析节能减排管理,使节能减排工作见到实效.     

基于大数据技术构建生态环境信息化体系及其重点应用研究

本文首先分析了生态环境信息化体系的主要构成要素,其后基于大数据技术的生态环境信息化体系重点领域应用进行了深入研究。     

A review of post-modern management techniques as currently applied to Turkish forestry

This paper reviews the effects of six post-modern management concepts as applied to Turkish forestry. Up to now, Turkish forestry has been constrained, both in terms of its operations and internal organization, by a highly bureaucratic system. The application of new thinking in forestry management, however, has recently resulted in new organizational and production concepts that promise to address problems specific to this Turkish industry and bring about positive changes. This paper will elucidate these specific issues and demonstrate how post-modern management thinking is influencing the administration and operational capacity of Turkish forestry within its current structure.     

Use of a food web model to evaluate the factors responsible for high PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen, a high Arctic Lake

Background, aim, and scope

Lake Ellasjøen, located in the Norwegian high arctic, contains the highest concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) ever recorded in fish and sediment from high arctic lakes, and concentrations are more than 10 times greater than in nearby Lake Øyangen. These elevated concentrations in Ellasjøen have been previously attributed, in part, to contaminant loadings from seabirds that use Ellasjøen, but not Øyangen, as a resting area. However, other factors, such as food web structure, organism growth rate, weight, lipid content, lake morphology, and nutrient inputs from the seabird guano, also differ between the two systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative influence of these factors as explanatory variables for the higher PCB fish concentrations in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, using both a food web model and empirical data.

Methods

The model is based on previously developed models but parameterized for Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen using measured data wherever possible. The model was applied to five representative PCB congeners (PCB 105, 118, 138, 153, and 180) using measured sediment and water concentrations as input data and evaluated with previously collected food web data.

Results

Modeled concentrations are within a factor of two of measured concentrations in 60% and 40% of the cases in Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen, respectively, and within a factor of 10 in 100% of the cases in both lakes. In many cases, this is comparable to the variability associated with the data as well as the efficacy of the predictions of other food web model applications.

Discussion

We next used the model to quantify the relative importance of five major differences between Ellasjøen and Øyangen by replacing variables representing each of these factors in the Ellasjøen model with those from Øyangen, in separate simulations. The model predicts that the elevated PCB concentrations in Ellasjøen water and sediment account for 49%–58% of differences in modeled fish PCB concentrations between lakes. These elevated sediment and, to a lesser extent, water concentrations in Ellasjøen are due to PCB loadings from seabird guano. However, sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs are consistently greater in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, which suggests that internal lake processes also contribute to differences in sediment and water concentrations. We hypothesize that the nutrients associated with guano influence sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs by increasing the stock of pelagic algae. As both these algae and the guano settle, their organic carbon content is degraded faster than PCBs, which causes an extra magnification step in Ellasjøen before these detrital particles are consumed by benthic organisms, which are in turn consumed by fish. The model predicts that the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB concentrations observed between the fish of these lakes are due to other subtle differences in their food web structures.

Conclusions

In conclusion, based on the results of a food web model, we found that the most dominant factors influencing the higher PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen are the higher sediment and water concentrations in Ellasjøen, caused by seabird guano. Together, sediment and water are predicted to account for 49%–58% of differences in fish concentrations between lakes. Although seabird guano provides a source of nutrients to the lake, in addition to contaminants, empirical data and indirect model results suggest that nutrients are not leading to decreased bioaccumulation, in contrast to what has been observed in temperate, pelagic food webs.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering even small differences in food web structure when comparing bioaccumulation in two lakes; although the food web structures of Ellasjøen and Øyangen differ only slightly, the model predicts that these differences account for most of the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB fish concentrations between the two lakes. This study further demonstrates the utility of food web models as we were able to predict and tease apart the influence of various factors responsible for the elevated concentrations in the fish from Lake Ellasjøen, which would have been difficult using the field data alone.     

Seasonal fluctuations of DDTs and PCBs in zooplankton and fish of Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy)

Concentrations of DDTs and PCBs were determined in the zooplankton and in three different fish species (shad, whitefish and roach) collected seasonally during 2009 and 2010 in three sites in Lake Maggiore, a south-alpine lake that has been contaminated by DDT since 1996. As previously observed in 2008, even during 2009 DDTs concentrations were higher in zooplankton than in fish, probably due to the very unstable situation of the lake still influenced by local inputs. The situation changed in 2010, when all DDT compounds increased in fish to levels much higher than those measured in zooplankton. Biomagnification was statistically demonstrated for pp′DDE in all the three fish species, indicating a probable signal of recovery of the lake.Although with respect to total PCBs we observed that the contamination levels varied across time periods and across fish species, biomagnification was evident from zooplankton to fish both in 2009 and in 2010. As concern individual PCBs, biomagnification from zooplankton to all three fish species was significant for PCB 153 and PCB 138.     

Inferring chemical effects on carbon flows in aquatic food webs: Methodology and case study

The majority of ecotoxicological enclosure experiments monitor species abundances at different chemical concentrations. Here, we present a new modelling approach that estimates changes in food web flows from such data and show that population- and food web level effects are revealed that are not apparent from abundance data alone. For the case of cypermethrin in freshwater enclosures, photosynthesis and excretion (d⁻¹) of phytoplankton at 3.643 μg L⁻¹ cypermethrin were 30% lower and 100% higher than in the control, respectively. The ingestion rate of mesozooplankton (d⁻¹) was 6 times higher in the treated enclosures than in the control as food concentration increased with insecticide exposure. With increasing cypermethrin concentrations, nanoflagellates progressively relied on phytoplankton as their main food source, which rendered the food web less stable. We conclude that this tool has excellent potential to analyse the wealth of enclosure data as it only needs species abundance and general constraints.