A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

有关《环境保护法》的思考

本文综合分析了以环境保护法为基本法的环境保护法律的体系，试图从环境法律关系和法律责任等方面对环境法进行法律属性的分析，得学我国环境管理体制实质上就是环境行政管理体制的结论，环境行政管理必须在法制的轨道上运行，这样才会从根本上解决环境保护的问题，才会使我们的生存环境更加美好。     

建国前夕毛泽东对执政党建设的战略构思

1949年3月,毛泽东在七届二中全会上根据迅速发展的革命形势,极具预见性的向全党及时提出转移工作重心,并对党的执政地位、执政任务、执政目标、执政能力建设进行了一系列的战略构思和周密布置。     

佳木斯台形变观测对东北地区几次浅震“场兆”异常的探讨

大地震在主破裂前往往行成地壳变形,高应力作用下进入峰值后的变形阶段,反映到地倾斜观测日均值曲线上,表现为固体潮形变趋势异常,这些异常能否指示远距离的地震,近年来不少研究者发现,远场前兆往往出现在对应力、应变变化反应灵敏的特殊构造部位。佳木斯台可能处于这种特殊的构造部位,对东北地区浅源地震短期前兆异常“场兆”的趋势性变化具有一定的意义。     

淮河中游地区水环境功能区划研究

从地表水质现状出发，寻求有利经济结构调整、重大区域开发规划布局与水质目标管理的科学水环境功能区划方案，为实施水污染物排放总量控制，改善地表水质提供技术支持。     

试论我国环境行政强制执行制度

环境行政强制执行制度是环境执法的重要制度。大陆法系国家实行德奥模式而从法律上确立环境行政机关强制执行地位，英美法系国家一般实行美法模式而以诉讼方式实现环境行政强制执行，日本则有更为严格、完善的环境行政强制执行制度。比较上述模式后认为：基于我国国情，法律应赋予环境行政机关一定的直接强制执行权，明确环境行政强制执行与司法强制执行的权限，确立环境行政强制执行制度。     

Effect of catalyzed diesel particulate filter and its catalyst loading on emission characteristics of a non-road diesel engine

In this study, the effects of a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) coupled with a catalyzed diesel particulate filter (CDPF) with different catalyst loadings on the power, fuel consumption, gaseous and particulate emissions from a non-road diesel engine were investigated. Results showed that the after-treatment had a negligible effect on the power and fuel consumption. The reduction effect of the DOC on the CO and hydrocarbon (HC) increased with the engine load. Further reductions occurred coupling with the CDPF. Increasing the catalyst loading resulted in a more significant reduction in the HC emissions than CO emissions. The DOC could increase the NO₂ proportion to 37.9%, and more NO₂ was produced when coupled with the CDPF below 250°C; above 250°C, more NO₂ was consumed. The after-treatment could reduce more than 99% of the particle number (PN) and 98% of the particle mass (PM). Further reductions in the PN and PM occurred with a higher CDPF catalyst loading. The DOC had a better reduction effect on the nucleation particles than the accumulation ones, but the trend reversed with the CDPF. The DOC shifted the particle size distribution (PSD) to larger particles with an accumulation particle proportion increasing from 13% to 20%, and the geometric mean diameter (GMD) increased from 18.2 to 26.0 nm. The trend reversed with the CDPF and the accumulation particle proportion declined to less than 10%. A lower catalyst loading on the CDPF led to a higher proportion of nucleation particles and a smaller GMD.     

BUILDUP,WASHOFF, AND EVENT MEAN CONCENTRATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Most watershed water quality simulation models require the user to specify pollutant buildup and washoff rate parameters for pollutants, by land use. Buildup and washoff rates are difficult to measure directly, and only limited guidance and few observed data are available from the literature. Many studies, however, report storm event mean concentrations (EMCs). These EMCs must arise as a result of the buildup and washoff processes, but typically represent the net contribution from a variety of pervious and impervious surfaces. This paper explores the relationship between EMCs and buildup/washoff parameters. An assumption of the mathematical form of the buildup/washoff relationship gives an algebraic expression for the EMC consistent with model assumptions. This yields techniques to separate observed EMCs into contributions from different land uses and from pervious and impervious surfaces. Given this relationship, numerical optimization may be used to estimate site specific values of buildup and washoff parameters from observed storm EMCs for use in modeling. Use of this approach helps ensure that model parameters are consistent with observed data, providing a rational starting point for final model calibration. Several site examples demonstrate use of the method.     

室内有毒易爆气体的检测

随着城市生活水平的提高,室内装修装饰日益普及.各种新材料的引入,使得室内的各种有害气体总量日益增加.长期生活在这样的环境下,会对人体健康产生极为不利的影响.居民生活用煤气,在给人们生活带来便利的同时,作为一种可燃性、有毒气体,也具有极强的危害性.因此,研制一种能检测多种有害气体的实用仪器,具有很大的应用价值.本仪器为便携式多功能仪器,采用可充电电池供电,可以检测ppb的挥发性气体,显示气体浓度值,也可检测煤气,并具有声光报警功能.     

基于神经网络的碳排放预测及影响因素分析

基于新疆1995—2014年农业生产碳排放源,建立碳排放关系数据库。应用广义神经网络(generalized regression neural network,GRNN)构建了排放量预测模型,结合平均影响值(mean impact value,MIV)方法对碳排放影响因素进行量化。结果表明:1)GRNN模型预测碳排放的平均绝对百分误差和拟合优度分别为2.7860%和0.8720;2)新疆人口、人均GDP、农业贡献值、农机总动力和农户固定资产投资等因素对农业生产碳排放的影响程度分别为0.6210、0.2377、0.3698、0.8500和0.1000。该成果可为新疆碳排放总量分析和影响因素量化方面提供参考。