Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.     

Dechloranes exhibit binding potency and activity to thyroid hormone receptors

Dechloranes are a group of halogenated flame retardants with a basic bicyclo[2.2.1]heptene, including Dechlorane Plus(DP), Dechlorane 602(Dec 602), Dechlorane 603(Dec 603) and Dechlorane 604(Dec 604). A few epidemiological investigations and animal experiments have shown that DP exhibited thyroid-interfering effects. In the present study, we investigated whether DP and three other dechloranes could interfere the thyroid function through thyroid hormone receptors(TRs, TR α and TR β) signaling pat...     

Bisphenol A exposure alters release of immune and developmental modulators and expression of estrogen receptors in human fetal lung fibroblasts

Bisphenol A(BPA) has been shown to exert biological effects through estrogen receptor(ER)-dependent and ER-independent mechanisms. Recent studies suggest that prenatal exposure to BPA may increase the risk of childhood asthma. To investigate the underlying mechanisms in the actions of BPA, human fetal lung fibroblasts(h FLFs) were exposed to varying doses of BPA in culture for 24 hr. Effects of BPA on localization and uptake of BPA,cell viability, release of immune and developmental modulators, cellular localization and expression of ERα, ERβ and G-protein coupled estrogen receptor 30(GPR30), and effects of ERs antagonists on BPA-induced changes in endothelin-1(ET-1) release were examined.BPA at 0.01–100 μmol/L caused no changes in cell viability after 24 hr of exposure. h FLFs expresses all three ERs. BPA had no effects on either cellular distribution or protein expression of ERα, however, at 100 μmol/L(or 23 μmol/L intracellular BPA) increased ERβprotein levels in the cytoplasmic fractions and GPR 30 protein levels in the nuclear fractions.These paralleled with increased release of growth differentiation factor-15, decreased phosphorylation of nuclear factor kappa B p65 at serine 536, and decreased release of ET-1,interleukin-6, and interferon gamma-induced protein 10. ERs antagonists had no effects on BPA-induced decrease in ET-1 release. These data suggest that BPA at 100 μmol/L altered the release of immune and developmental modulators in h FLFs, which may negatively influence fetal lung development, maturation, and susceptibility to environmental stressors, although the role of BPA in childhood asthma remains to be confirmed in in vivo studies.