A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Safety assessment of the film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) process through a system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)

Film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) is considered as one of the fastest process methodologies for manufacturing carbon-carbon (C–C) composite products and possesses various advantages compared to conventional methodologies. However, there are safety concerns associated with this process for large-scale manufacturing, mainly owing to the intrinsic nature of the precursor and the process conditions. Considering the multifunctional interactions of the various systems during the process, a system-theoretic process analysis (STPA)/system theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) model is used to perform a safety analysis of the hazardous states of the FB-CVI process at the system level. As a case study, the FB-CVI process equipment employed for the manufacturing of C–C composites is considered. The safety constraints present in the system are assessed for adequacy through a hazard analysis by STPA/STAMP. The analysis through STPA/STAMP demonstrated the capability to create proactive strategies for the design and realization of process equipment that can be employed to manufacture C–C composite products through the FB-CVI process.     

人口老龄化背景下的经济对策与产业选择

面对人口老龄化对经济发展的影响．应以养老和健康保障为先导．逐步加大对社会保障基金的投入．充实基本养老保险和医疗保险基金．建立和完善与生产力发展水平相适应的社会保障制度．继续推进社会保障社会化和产业结构调整的力度．建议政府应大力发展老龄产业。政府必须从实际出发．坚持科学发展观．逐步建立和完善老年社会养老制度和福利制度．根据老年消费市场状况．规范、引导投资．调整、优化产业结构用产业化、市场化、社会化的新运行机制．推进安老、养老产业的发展．根据老年人的不同需求，有计划的发展老龄产业、开发老年用品．增设老年服务项目．满足老年人在物质和文化方面的发展需要．以促使人口老龄化与经济的协调发展。     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

Review of present European environmental policies and legislation involving cultural heritage

Cultural heritage is being addressed by a number of charters and conventions and it is clear that its consideration within decision-making processes is progressively becoming a real challenge, both for developers and public authorities. Against this background, this paper reviews the environmental assessment framework developed by the European Community, as this should increasingly influence decision making about cultural heritage in an urban setting. The legislative framework for access to environmental information is also reviewed because of its relevance to the decision-making process.The Directives on Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment both require a consideration of cultural heritage in decision making. This requirement can go some way to addressing the paradox in the European Community's position whereby the community wishes to conserve and enhance its own cultural identity whilst, at the same time, cultural heritage is usually defined at a local level. The present paper suggests that, given their flexibility, the two European Community directives on environmental assessment constitute a promising opportunity to address this seeming paradox, but that there is a significant gap between legal obligations and the methodological tools to meet them.     

Evolution of environmental impact assessment as applied to watershed modification projects in Canada

This article reviews the application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures and practices to three watershed modification projects situaled in western Canada. These ventures were justified for accelerating regional economic development, and cover the period during which public concerns for protecting the environment rapidly made their way into the national political agenda. An historical account and analysis of the situation, therefore, seems desirable in order to understand the development of EIA processes, practices, and methodologies since the start of construction of the first project in 1961. This study concludes that there has been good progress in predicting and evaluating environmental and related social impacts of watershed modification proposals. However, a number of obstacles need to be overcome before EIA can firmly establish itself as an effective planning tool. These difficulties include jurisdictional confusions and conflicts, division of authority and responsibility in designing and implementing appropriate mitigative and monitoring measures, lack of tested EIA methodologies, and limited availability of qualified human resources. A number of conclusions and suggestions are offered so that future watershed modification proposals may be planned and implemented in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. These include: (1) EIA processes must be completed before irrevocable decisions are made. (2) Any major intrusion into a watershed is likely to impact on some major components of the ecosystem(s). (3) Mitigation costs must form part of the benefit-cost analysis of any project proposal. (4) Interjurisdictional cooperation is imperative where watersheds cross political boundaries. (5) The EIA process is a public process, hence public concerns must be dealt with fairly. (6) The role of science in the EIA process must be at arms length from project proponents and regulators, and allowed to function in the interest of the protection of the environment and public health and safety. The views expressed here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of FEARO and/or other government agencies and officials involved in the review of these projects.     

湖北省湿地的保护与利用

湿地是地球上具有多功能的、独特的生态系统，是人类最重要的生存环境之一。湖北省地处长江中游，湿地类型多，面积较大，河、湖湿地系统是主要的湿地类型。湖北湿地具有较大的资源潜力和环境调节功能，是自然界生物多样性丰富的生态景观。近年来，湖北省湿地保护面临人口增长的压力，围垦、污染和过度开发等对湿地保护构成了严重威胁，湿地环境遭到干扰和破坏。加强湿地科学的研究，保护管理好湖北湿地及其生态环境，实现湿地资源的持续利用，是湖北省2l世纪环保工作所面临的一项重要而紧迫的任务。     

论环境产业

本文在可持续发展视角下,把环境的保护、修复、维护的生产活动及与之直接相关的服务活动称为环境产韭,包括发挥减少、避免污染环境作用的资源再利用鼗和发挥治理污染物与修复、改善环境作用的环境维护业.通过探讨环境产业的内涵、发展历程、运行机制和在产业体系中的位置与作用,指出环境产业是在法规保障下政府强行推动产生和发展起来的,是产业体系中不可缺少的重要组成部分;考虑自然环境对社会行为的影响,改进政府行为构建适台环境产业与传统产业协调发展的经济体制是加快发展环境产业的关键.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

An introductory note on the environmental economics of the circular economy

This paper provides an introduction to some of the fundamental principles and approaches in environmental economics which are of significance to achieving an integrated sustainability science. The concept of a circular economy, introduced by the late David Pearce in 1990, addresses the interlinkages of the four economic functions of the environment. The environment not only provides amenity values, in addition to being a resource base and a sink for economic activities, it is also a fundamental life-support system. Environmental economists have suggested that, taking these four functions as an analytical starting point, unpriced or underpriced services should be internalised in the economy. In Europe significant advances have been achieved in the pricing of externalities by means of truly interdisciplinary analysis which accounts in detail for the environmental consequences. The monetary estimates reached as a result of such interdisciplinary research are gradually being applied to the economic analysis of environmental policy priorities. Although such figures provide only a partial and incomplete picture of the environmental costs at stake, they support and inform the analysis of the virtues of a circular economy for individual resources as well as for sustainability as a future trajectory.