Ecotoxicological effects assessment in the Netherlands: Recent developments

In a recently published annex to the National Environmental Policy Plan of the Netherlands (1989), attention was paid to ecotoxicological effects assessment. The proposed procedure was based on the advice of the Health Council of the Netherlands (1989) on risk assessment of toxic chemicals for ecosystems. The various extrapolation methods described by the Health Council are critically discussed in this paper. The extrapolation method of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989) is evaluated for eight chemicals and 11 aquatic species. Conclusions are drawn about the quality and quantity of the ecotoxicological data needed for aquatic effects assessment. For the soil—a compartment that is often at risk—ecotoxicological effects assessment is not possible because suitable ecotoxicological test methods still have to be developed.     

Environmental Water-Quality Zones for Streams: A Regional Classification Scheme

Various approaches have been used to classify large geographical areas into smaller regions of similar water quality or extrapolate water-quality data from a few streams to other unmonitored streams. A combination of some of the strengths of existing techniques is used to develop a new approach for these purposes. In this new approach, referred to here as SPARTA (SPAtial Regression-Tree Analysis), environmental characteristics for each monitored stream are first quantified using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and then regression-tree analysis is used to determine which characteristics are most statistically important in describing the distribution of a specific water-quality constituent. GIS coverages of only the most statistically significant environmental characteristics are then used to subdivide the area of interest into relatively homogeneous environmental water-quality zones. Results from the regression-tree analysis not only define the most important environmental characteristics, but also describe how to subdivide the coverage of the specific characteristic (for example, areas with <26% or ≥26% soil clay content). The resulting regionalization scheme is customized for each water-quality constituent based on the environmental characteristics most statistically related to that constituent. SPARTA was used to delineate areas of similar phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment concentrations (by including land-use characteristics) and areas of similar potential water quality (by excluding land-use characteristics). The SPARTA approach reduced the variability in water-quality concentrations (phosphorus, total nitrogen, Kjeldahl nitrogen, and suspended sediment) within similarly classified zones from that obtained using the US Environmental Protection Agency's nutrient ecoregions.     

Capturing market impacts of farm level policies: a statistical extrapolation approach using biophysical characteristics and farm resources

Technical change at the farm level or changes in input prices often have an impact on the firm's supply function, which in turn affect their economic and environmental performance. These changes can take place in numerous ways. This paper presents a methodology that increases the consistency of supply responses across various sets of agricultural products and most representative farm typologies in Europe, with a market model based on a statistical response function approach. Since most farm simulation models are limited to a subset of regions and farm types, the linkage to an aggregated model requires a procedure for expanding these results to non-sample regions to achieve full regional coverage. This paper addresses theoretical aspects related to the consistency between micro and market level models. The proposed approach is applied using a consistent set of simulation results from farm models in seven European regions. Our results show a fairly stable behaviour of the farm models considered for the analysis and quite good fit of the estimated response surface. As results are still preliminary we critically reflect on the applicability of this method in addressing further needs on up-scaling of other economic as well as environmental indicators.     

Laboratory shake flask batch tests can predict field biodegradation of aniline in the Rhine

The aim of this study was to compare degradation rates of aniline in laboratory shake flask simulation tests with field rates in the river Rhine. The combined events of a low flow situation in the Rhine and residual aniline concentrations in the effluent from the BASF treatment plant in Ludwigshafen temporarily higher than normal, made it possible to monitor aniline at trace concentrations in the river water downstream the wastewater outlet by means of a sensitive GC headspace analytical method. Aniline was analyzed along a downstream gradient and the dilution along the gradient was calculated from measurements of conductivity, sulfate and a non-readily biodegradable substance, 1,4-dioxane. Compensating dilution, field first-order degradation rate constants downstream the discharge of BASF were estimated at 1.8 day⁻¹ for two different dates with water temperatures of 21.9 and 14.7 °C, respectively. This field rate estimate was compared with results from 38 laboratory shake flask batch tests with Rhine water which averaged 1.5 day⁻¹ at 15 °C and 2.0 day⁻¹ at 20 °C. These results indicate that laboratory shake flask batch tests with low concentrations of test substance can be good predictors of degradation rates in natural water bodies––at least as ascertained here for short duration tests with readily degradable compounds among which aniline is a commonly used reference.     

A process-based model designed for filling of large data gaps in tower-based measurements of net ecosystem productivity

In this paper we present a simple hybrid gap-filling model (GFM) designed with a minimum number of parameters necessary to capture the ecological processes important for filling medium-to-large gaps in Flux data. As the model is process-based, the model has potential to be used in filling large gaps exhibiting a broad range of micro-meteorological and site conditions. The GFM performance was evaluated using “Punch hole” and extrapolation experiments based on data collected in west-central New Brunswick. These experiments indicated that the GFM is able to provide acceptable results (r² > 0.80) when >500 data points are used in model parameterization. The GFM was shown to address daytime evolution of NEP reasonably well for a wide range of weather and site conditions. An analysis of residuals indicated that for the most part no obvious trends were evident; although a slight bias was detected in NEP with soil temperature. To explore the portability of the GFM across ecosystem types, a transcontinental validation was conducted using NEP and ancillary data from seven ecosystems along a north-south transect (i.e., temperature–moisture gradient) from northern Europe (Finland) to the Middle East (Israel). The GFM was shown to explain over 75% of the variability in NEP measured at most ecosystems, which strongly suggests that the GFM maybe successfully applied to forest ecosystems outside Canada.     

Critical Review of Environmental Forensic Techniques: Part II

A multitude of forensic techniques are available for age dating and source identification, including aerial photography interpretation, corrosion models, the commercial availability of a chemical, chemical associations with discrete types of equipment, chemical profiling, degradation models and contaminant transport models. The success of these techniques in environmental litigation and their applicability to a particular fact situation is rarely discussed in the literature. When these techniques are introduced as scientific evidence, their governing assumptions and the adequacy of the underlying data are rigorously scrutinized and often, successfully challenged. The purpose of this paper is to review selected forensic techniques and discuss their merits so that the user can select the technique or combination of techniques most appropriate for the factual elements of the case.     

X射线粉末法计算晶胞参数及粉末图指标化的微机程序

本文介绍了一个用BASIC语言编写的微机程序,即CDI程序。该程序是根据最小二乘修正加上外推的原理编制的,用于粉末衍射数据的晶胞参数计算和粉末图指标化。CDI程序可以处理所有晶系的衍射数据并得出令人满意的计算结果。程序已在IBMPC/XT,长城0520CH及C.S.重型微机上运行了好几年并解决了一系列实际问题。     

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

投影角度受限制的超声波CT温度测量

本研究在投影角度受限制的情况下利用超声波CT完成三维温度测量。新CT再构成算法的主要特征如下：在考虑到投影数据之间的相关性的同时、在傅里叶变换基础之上利用外插手法来补全不完整的投影数据。我们运用计算机模拟计算以及建立实验系统对上述算地的可靠性进行检验。根据计算机模拟计算和实验的结果,我们认为本研究所提出的CT算法可以有效地处理受投影角度限制的投影数据。     

Mathematische Modelle zur Effektabsch?tzung

Zusammenfassung  Die Extrapolation von toxikologischen Daten aus Labortests auf Schwellenwerte für ?kosysteme stellt ein zentrales Problem bei der Effektabsch?tzung im Rahmen der ?kologischen Risikoanalyse dar. Die üblichen statistischen Verfahren werden kurz vorgestellt, bevor Beispiele zur Anwendung von Simulationsmodellen gegeben werden. Ein Verfahren zur Absch?tzung von Schwellenkonzentration für verschiedene Endpunkte mit Hilfe von Monte-Carlo-Simulationen wird vorgestellt und an einem Datensatz für acht Chemikalien mit statistischen Verfahren verglichen. Abschlie?end werden die Vor-und Nachteile gegenübergestellt.