我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901–2011

This paper describes the development and analysis of a dataset covering bushfire related life loss in Australia over the past 110 years (1901–2011). Over this time period 260 bushfires have been associated with a total of 825 known civilian and firefighter fatalities. This database was developed to provide an evidence base from which an Australian national fire danger rating system can be developed and has benefits in formalising our understanding of community exposure to bushfire. The database includes detail of the spatial, temporal and localised context in which the fatalities occurred. This paper presents the analysis of 674 civilian fatalities. The analysis has focused on characterising the relationship between fatal exposure location, weather conditions (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and drought indices), proximity to fuel, activities and decision making leading up to the death.The analysis demonstrates that civilian fatalities were dominated by several iconic bushfires that have occurred under very severe weather conditions. The fatalities from Australia's 10 worst bushfire days accounted for 64% of all civilian fatalities. Over 50% of all fatalities occurred on days where the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeded 100 (the current threshold for declaring a day as ‘catastrophic’) proximal to the fatality.The dominant location category was open air representing 58% of all fatalities followed by 28% in structures, and 8% in vehicles (6% are unknown). For bushfires occurring under weather conditions exceeding an FFDI value of 100, fatalities within structures represented over 60% of all fatalities. These were associated with people dying while attempting to shelter mainly in their place of residence. Of the fatalities that occurred inside a structure in a location that was specifically known, 41% occurred in rooms with reduced visibility to the outside conditions. Over 78% of all fatalities occurred within 30 m of the forest.     

A new approach to the estimation of the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions

This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions in fixed installations, as a function of the amount of the flammable substance involved. A review of the procedure proposed by Marshall (1977) (Marshall, V.C., 1977 How lethal are explosions and toxic escapes? The Chemical Engineer, August 1977, 573–577). reveals its limitations, given the great dispersion of ungrouped data. The proposed alternative enables the estimation of the maximum probable number of fatalities and the percentage of cases in which a certain number of fatalities is reached, based on the knowledge of the amount of material presumably involved and through the application of the historical analysis of accidents. It must be pointed out that the proposed method considers not only fatalities derived directly from the overpressure wave but also those due to thermal radiation or missile impact.     

The effectiveness of the revised scaffold safety standard in the construction industry

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of the revised scaffold safety standard in the construction industry and to evaluate time trend analyses on scaffold-related fatalities and injuries, as well as inspections conducted and cited violations of the scaffold safety standard set forth in Title 29 of the Code of Federal Regulations Part 1926, Subpart L. Data on scaffold-related fatalities, injuries, and lost workdays, as well as cited violations of scaffold safety, were assembled from sources such as the US Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Integrated Management Information System, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data for the period prior to the revision of the standard were compared with data from the period after the revision. We used autoregressive analyses to evaluate the percentage of change in the mean scaffold-related fatalities, injuries and lost workdays and in the OSHA inspections and cited violations of scaffold safety. Effectiveness analysis was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the revised scaffold safety standard in preventing fatal or nonfatal injuries in the construction industry. Complying with the revised scaffold safety standard would prevent approximately 4.6 fatalities, 404 nonfatal injuries, and 2896 lost workdays per year. A total cost savings associated with compliance was estimated at $5.8 million (2001 US$) per year. Compliance with the revised scaffold safety standard would provide a safer workplace and generate a significant cost saving in the construction industry.     

Differences in relative risks for fatal occupational highway transportation accidents

Problem and Method: This study examined the trends in the relative risks for being involved in fatal occupational highway transportation accidents based upon the age and gender of the victim. Results: Significant differences in relative risks were identified based upon age; however, there were no significant differences in relative risks based upon gender. The trend analysis of relative risks for all motor-vehicle accidents based upon age showed that males exhibited a significant cubic trend while females exhibited a significant linear trend. The trend analysis of relative risks for fatal motor-vehicle accidents specifically involving vehicle operators based upon age yielded a significant quadratic trend for males and no significant trends for females. Examining the relative risks for fatalities involving only motor-vehicle operators controlled, to a certain extent, the differences in job exposure to motor-vehicle accidents based upon age. Impact: Prevention measures are identified as most crucial for older male workers in the transportation and agriculture industries.     

Validity of police-reported alcohol involvement in fatal motor carrier crashes in the United States between 1982 and 2005

Objective

To examine the validity of police-reported alcohol data for drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes.

Material and Methods

We determined the availability of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and police-reported alcohol data on 157,702 drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes between 1982 - 2005 using Fatality Analysis and Reporting System (FARS) data. Drivers were categorized as motor carrier drivers if they operated a vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of greater than 26,000 pounds. Otherwise, they were classified as non motor carrier drivers. The sensitivity and specificity of police-reported alcohol involvement were estimated for both driver types.

Results

Of the 157,702 drivers, 18% had no alcohol information, 15% had BAC results, 42% had police-reported alcohol data, and 25% had both. Alcohol information varied significantly by driver, crash, and vehicle characteristics. For example, motor carrier drivers were significantly more likely (51%) to have BAC testing results compared to non motor carrier drivers (31%) (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of police-reported alcohol involvement for a BAC level ≥ 0.08 was 83% (95% CI 79%, 86%) for motor carrier drivers and 90% (95% CI 89%, 90%) for non motor carrier drivers. The specificity rates were 96% (95% CI 95%, 96%) and 91% (95% CI 90%, 91%), respectively.

Conclusions

The sensitivity and specificity of police-reported alcohol involvement are reasonably high for drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which the accuracy of police-reported alcohol involvement may be overestimated because of verification bias.

Impact on the Industry

Based on the results of this study, the federal government should continue to work with states to strengthen their strategies to increase chemical testing of all drivers involved in fatal crashes.     

Prevalence and trends of distracted driving in Canada

Introduction: This study evaluates prevalence and trends in distracted driving in Canada based on multiple indicators collected from the Road Safety Monitor (RSM) and Canada’s National Fatality Database maintained by the Traffic Injury Research Foundation (TIRF). Method: Data from the RSM on self-reported distracted driving behaviors were analyzed using multivariate techniques including logistic regression analysis in various years spanning from 2004 to 2019. Data from TIRF’s National Fatality Database from 2000 to 2016 were also analyzed using piecewise regression analysis to evaluate trends and prevalence of driver distraction. Results: Significantly more Canadians reported talking on their phone hands-free or handheld phone while driving in 2019 compared to 2010. There was a 102% increase in the percentage that reported texting while driving in 2019 (9.7%) compared to 2010 (4.8%). For every 10-year increase in age, drivers were 44% less likely to text, 38% less likely to use a handheld phone, and 28% less likely to use a hands-free phone. Males were 62% more likely to use a handheld phone and 50% more likely to use a hands-free phone than females. Findings related to drivers’ perceived danger of distracted driving and attitudes are also presented. Although the number of distraction-related fatalities has not increased substantially from 2000 to 2016, the percentage of all fatalities where distraction was a contributing factor has increased. Unlike drinking drivers, distracted drivers more often kill other road users in crashes than kill themselves. Conclusions: In conclusion, while most Canadians appear to understand that one of the high-risk forms of distracted driving (i.e., texting while driving) is indeed dangerous, there is a minority who are unaware of, or resistant to, this fact. Practical Applications: Enforcement activities and education initiatives to combat distracted driving ought to be tailored to the target audience based on the patterns uncovered.     

Are helmet laws protecting young motorcyclists?

PROBLEM: The trend in state mandatory motorcycle helmet laws is away from universal coverage to partial coverage statutes that require only young riders to wear a helmet. Among partial coverage states substantial variation exists in this age requirement. How effective are motorcycle helmet laws at reducing young motorcyclist fatalities? METHOD: The dependent variable is the number of motorcyclist fatalities 15-20 years of age. Fixed effects negative binomial regression models are estimated using panel data for all 50 states and Washington DC, for the period 1975-2004. RESULTS: Universal helmet laws are associated with fatality rates that are 31% lower among motorcyclists 15-20 years of age. In contrast, partial coverage laws targeting young motorcyclists are statistically unrelated to a reduction in the fatality rates of this age group. DISCUSSION: The long-term consequence of the move away from universal helmet laws will be an increased level of risk faced by young motorcyclists. In many states, mandatory motorcycle helmet laws are not protecting even young riders.     

Project level analysis of special trade contractor fatalities using accident investigation reports

Introduction

Construction is among the most dangerous industries in the United States accounting for thousands of fatalities every year. Although there is data available on high risk work types and areas, the project-level detail is not readily available.

Method

This paper uses the accident investigation reports to categorize project types and presents project level analysis of 350 fatal accidents for special trade contractors.

Results

The results showed that Residential and Commercial projects lead the fatalities where Falls are observed as the leading cause. However, when the fatality causes and project categories are analyzed for each work type, the results showed different fatality cause proportions for each project type.

Impact on Industry

Project level analysis approach has a direct impact on identifying high risk work types and areas for special trade contractors by making it possible to focus the prevention and intervention efforts more accurately, while highlighting training and education needs.     

Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010–2017)

IntroductionRecent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand’s formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method: We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of ‘speed as a causal factor’. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results: Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand’s successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system.