Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century

Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for mitigation and adaptation.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

基于多模型的区域气候变化预测方法比较研究——以厦门市为例

研究表明,气候变化对流域水资源以及生态环境造成一定影响,找到预测区域气候变化的适宜方法,可以为厦门市应对气候变化带来的影响起到积极的推动作用。文章采用英国气象局Hadley气候预测研究中心的HadCM3模式在B1情景下的输出结果,利用Delta方法对大尺度数据进行降尺度处理,得到厦门站气温和降水预测数据,与天气发生器以及统计学ARMA模型分析得到的预测结果进行比较,分析三种方式对厦门站气温和降水模拟及预测的效果,探讨各自的优点及存在的局限性。     

我国东部河流水文水质对气候变化响应的研究

基于A2和B2气候变化情景,采用统计降尺度模型SDSM,将由3个国际上流行的大气环流模式GCMs(Had CM3、CSIRO-Mk2和CGCM2)模拟的未来我国东部长乐江流域的气温和降水,与水土评价模型SWAT相耦合,分析了该流域水文水质对气候变化的响应,并比较了3个大气环流模式模拟结果的异同.结果表明,所有气候情景下,TN浓度有明显的升高趋势;TP浓度有增有减,总体上仍呈微弱增加趋势.河川径流呈微弱减少趋势,而营养物负荷量呈微弱增加趋势,说明该流域水文水质状况受气温升高的影响大于降水微弱增加的影响.另外,在不同的气候变化情景下,年内径流和营养物负荷变化情况存在较大差异.研究结果可为理解河流水环境对气候变化的响应及其应对管理提供理论依据.     

Influences of greenhouse effect on agricultural production in China

An obvious warming in China induced by doubled carbon, dioxide as simulated by the climatic models have been found. It is also noticed that there might be drying or wetting in some parts of China induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs). Agricultural productivity mainly depends on the temperature, rainfall and soil moisture in China. The changes of agricultural productivity in the different parts of China induced by doubled CO2 have been estimated in this paper. It is shown that the greenhouse effect might cause increasing production in some parts of China and decreasing production in other parts of China.