Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Isotope tracing of submarine groundwater discharge offshore Ubatuba, Brazil: results of the IAEA–UNESCO SGD project

Results of groundwater and seawater analyses for radioactive (³H, ²²²Rn, ²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra, and ²²⁸Ra) and stable (D and ¹⁸O) isotopes are presented together with in situ spatial mapping and time series ²²²Rn measurements in seawater, direct seepage measurements using manual and automated seepage meters, pore water investigations using different tracers and piezometric techniques, and geoelectric surveys probing the coast. This study represents first time that such a new complex arsenal of radioactive and non-radioactive tracer techniques and geophysical methods have been used for simultaneous submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) investigations. Large fluctuations of SGD fluxes were observed at sites situated only a few meters apart (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 360 cm d⁻¹; the unit represents cm³/cm²/day), as well as during a few hours (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 110 cm d⁻¹), strongly depending on the tidal fluctuations. The average SGD flux estimated from continuous ²²²Rn measurements is 17 ± 10 cm d⁻¹. Integrated coastal SGD flux estimated for the Ubatuba coast using radium isotopes is about 7 × 10³ m³ d⁻¹ per km of the coast. The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment, indicating that the contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a small percentage to 20%. However, this contribution with increasing offshore distance became negligible. Automated seepage meters and time series measurements of ²²²Rn activity concentration showed a negative correlation between the SGD rates and tidal stage. This is likely caused by sea level changes as tidal effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients. The geoelectric probing and piezometric measurements contributed to better understanding of the spatial distribution of different water masses present along the coast. The radium isotope data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance, which imply that seawater in a complex coast with many small bays and islands was influenced by local currents and groundwater/seawater mixing. This has also been confirmed by a relatively short residence time of 1–2 weeks for water within 25 km offshore, as obtained by short-lived radium isotopes. The irregular distribution of SGD seen at Ubatuba is a characteristic of fractured rock aquifers, fed by coastal groundwater and recirculated seawater with small admixtures of groundwater, which is of potential environmental concern and has implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Towards a smallholder hydrology for equitable and sustainable water management

Situations of water scarcity challenge sustainability and threaten small users' access to water. In response to this problem, there has been a search for a method of hydrological analysis that can better represent the needs of small water users. While this search is rooted in the debate favouring a more participatory and inclusive allocation of the resource, it also requires a new focus on smallholder hydrology that can confront the gaps and biases found in current hydrological practices in many countries. This article looks at past hydrological practices and also at results of recent studies, highlighting the perspective of smallholder irrigators in surface water planning in Zimbabwe, and groundwater planning in India. These case studies show that wider social forces, not always best science, drive hydrological practices. However, new frameworks focusing on the water user can emerge for more equitable and sustainable water management.     

灰色系统GM（1,1）模型在城市地下水总硬度预测中的应用

应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对地下水中总硬度的变化作了预测.检验结果表明,该模型精度较高,是一种较好的预测方法.     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

Simulating dairy liquid waste management options as a nitrogen source for crops

Large scale dairy operations are common. In many cases the manure is deposited on a paved surface and then removed with a flushing system, after which the solids are separated, the liquid stored in ponds, and eventually the liquid applied on adjacent crop land. Management of liquid manure to maximize the fertilizer value and minimize water quality degradation requires knowledge of the interactive effects of mineralization of organic N (ON) to NH₄⁺, crop uptake of mineral N, and leaching of NO₃⁻ on a temporal basis. The purpose of the research was to use the ENVIRO-GRO model to simulate how the amount of applied N, timing of N application, ON mineralization rates, chemical form of N applied, and irrigation uniformity affected (1) yields of corn (Zea mays) in summer and a forage grass in winter in a Mediterranean climate and (2) the amount of NO₃⁻ leached below the root zone. This management practice is typical for dairies in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The simulations were conducted for a 10-year period. Steady state conditions, whereby an equivalent amount of N applied in the organic form will be mineralized in a given year, are achieved more rapidly for materials with high mineralization rates. Both timing and total quantity of N application are important in affecting crop yield and potential N leaching. Major conclusions from the simulations are as follows. Frequent low applications are preferred to less frequent higher applications. Increasing the amount of N application increased both the crop yield and the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. Increasing irrigation uniformity increased crop yields but had variable effects on the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. A winter forage crop following a summer corn crop effectively reduced the leaching of residual soil N following the corn crop.     

某糠醛厂排放废水及周围地下水的GC/MS测定

某地地下水显淡黄色有异味，为查明被污染原因，我们利用ＧＤＸ－１０２树脂富集，对该处唯一的一家工厂——某糠醛厂排放的废水及其周围地下水同时进行了ＧＣ／ＭＳ测定．以上两种水体中均有呋喃类化合物（包括糠醛）及酚类化合物检出，而远离工厂的上游地下水未发现以上两类化合物，这一结果表明，该地下水区被工厂排放的废水所污染     

新疆百重7井区油田开发对地下水环境的影响分析

新疆百重7井区为新疆百口腺地下水的汇集径流区,是克拉玛依市生尖生产用水水源之一，在此处进行油田开发，使得保护该区地下水环境成为开发工程的重中之重，由新疆百重7井区油田开发对地下水环境的影响分析可知，正常状况下的油田开发对地下水的影响很小，一旦发生事故，则对地下水的影响很大，必须采取适当措施，保护该区丰富的地下水资源。     

地下水污染潜势评估方法及应用

本文阐述了地下水污染潜势评估的重要性，介绍了三种方法，对其中的废物－土址－地点相互作用列表法作了详细介绍，并将ＷＳＳＩＭ法用于四川省什邡县化工开发区地下不污染潜势估。