Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

石期河流域地下水化学特征及物质来源分析

为明确典型岩溶溶丘洼(谷)地区域地下水化学特征及其成因,以石期河流域为研究对象,运用Gibbs图、Piper图、端元分析及离子比例系数等方法,对地下水水化学特征及物质来源进行了定性和定量分析.结果表明,研究区内地下水pH值介于6.06～8.07之间,Ca²⁺、 Mg²⁺和HCO^-₃是地下水中的主要离子,其质量浓度范围分别为2.61～108.7、 0.54～27.61和8.1～370.74mg·L^-1,符合岩溶水高钙弱碱性特征;地下水物质成分中, Ca²⁺和Mg²⁺主要受到碳酸参与的灰岩和白云岩风化作用的控制, Na⁺主要来源于硅酸盐岩的溶解,同时, Ca²⁺和Na⁺在地下水流动过程中进行阳离子交替吸附作用; K⁺、 Cl^-和NO^-₃主要受到农业化肥施放和生活废水排放的影响.此外,大气...     

济南市水文地质特征对地下水污染的影响分析

从环境水文地质学的角度出发，对济南市地下水污染的主要途径和方式，以及局部地下水重污染区进行了较为详细的分析，济南市地下水污染以浅层地下水污染为主，局部地区深层地下水也已受到污染，并有进一步加重的趋势，地下水严重超采，造成多处地表塌陷和降落漏斗，并成为济南市地下水的重污染区。     

MICRO-RELIEF SURFACE DEPRESSION STORAGE: ANALYSIS OF MODELS TO DESCRIBE THE DEPTH-STORAGE FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Micro-relief surface depression storage is one of the components of the rainfall-runoff process. The quantification of surface depression storage values and a depth-storage model to describe the storage was the subject of this study. Point measurement data were collected on 258 surfaces of 5 soils and three artificial surfaces. Five methods of computing storage, 15 depth-storage models, two depth increments, and six grid spacings were investigated. The 1-inch grid computational method, 0.1-inch depth increment, and 1-inch grid spacings were recommended. The surface depression storage function is best described by the model S = aD^b, which relates surface depression storage as a function of depth with two equation parameters. Equations for describing the surface depression storage model parameters have been developed.     

永梅会与中下扬子地区的成矿条件对比

永海会地区的区域构造、含矿地层和建造、中生代火山侵入岩体特征、局部控矿构造以及成矿物质来源、硫氢氧同位素、铅同位素、年龄同位素等成矿信息，都与扬子区、萍乐区已知铜金矿集区有许多相似之处。通过对比表明，永海会地区具有极大的找矿前应景。     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Modeled Watershed Scale Surface‐Depression Storage and Runoff for the Conterminous United States

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).     

Efficient Delineation of Nested Depression Hierarchy in Digital Elevation Models for Hydrological Analysis Using Level‐Set Method

In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill‐merge‐spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level‐set method based on graph theory. The proposed level‐set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level‐set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine‐resolution Light Detection and Ranging‐derived DEMs show that the raster‐based level‐set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector‐based contour tree method. The proposed level‐set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large‐scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling.     

The immediate costs and long-term benefits of assisted gene flow in large populations

With the genetic health of many plant and animal populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing adaptation, interventions, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), may provide genetic variation necessary for populations to adapt to climate change. We ran genetic simulations to mimic different AGF scenarios in large populations and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to determine circumstances in which it is worthwhile to perform AGF. In the absence of inbreeding depression, AGF was beneficial within a few generations only when introduced genotypes had much higher fitness than local individuals and traits affecting fitness were controlled by a few genes of large effect. AGF was harmful over short periods (e.g., first ∼10–20 generations) if there was strong outbreeding depression or introduced deleterious genetic variation. When the adaptive trait was controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of AGF took over 10 generations to realize—potentially too long for most climate-related management scenarios. The genomic integrity of the recipient population typically remained intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population usually constituted no more of the recipient population's genome than the fraction of the population introduced. Significant genomic turnover (e.g., >50% replacement) only occurred when the selective advantage of the adaptive trait and translocation fraction were extremely high. Our results will be useful when adaptive management is used to maintain the genetic health and productivity of large populations under climate change.     

Relationship between Population Size and Fitness

Abstract:  Long-term effective population size, which determines rates of inbreeding, is correlated with population fitness. Fitness, in turn, influences population persistence. I synthesized data from the literature concerning the effects of population size on population fitness in natural populations of plants to determine how large populations must be to maintain levels of fitness that will provide adequate protection against environmental perturbations that can cause extinction. Integral to this comment on what has been done and what needs to be done, sThe evidence suggests that there is a linear relationship between log population size and population fitness over the range of population sizes examined. More importantly, populations will have to be maintained at sizes of >2000 individuals to maintain population fitness at levels compatible with the conservation goal of long-term persistence. This approach to estimating minimum viable population size provides estimates that are in general agreement with those from numerous other studies and strengthens the argument that conservation efforts should ultimately aim at maintaining populations of several thousand individuals to ensure long-term persistence.