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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
本文从柑桔冻害和热害的危害因子和指标等级划分的研究和选取入手,着重探讨了长江三峡地区(湖北境内)两害显著的时空变化特征、差异与关联性及对柑桔生产的影响;揭示了80年代以来冬暖春热的重大气候变化是使两害向“两极分化”的根本原因;讨论了三峡水利工程对两害时空格局的可能调整及减灾原理;最后提出了可能的对策。 相似文献
3.
Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level
rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most
important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives
of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential
sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis
allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds:
‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional
storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output
maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six
scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with
return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the
major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies
in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change. 相似文献
4.
基于臭氧监测仪(OMI)卫星反演数据,对2005~2018年西北4省区域大气甲醛柱浓度数据进行提取及分析,探讨其时空变化特征及影响因素.结果表明:在时间变化上,14a甲醛柱浓度整体呈先上升后下降的波动变化趋势,夏秋季显著高于冬春季,且冬季均值略高于春季.在空间分布上,甲醛柱浓度自西向东、自北向南逐渐升高,高值区集中于陕西和甘肃东南部及青海西南部;低值区集中于宁夏、青海和甘肃的西北部;稳定性呈现出东部分散、西部集聚、差异显著的分布格局.影响甲醛柱浓度变化的因素包括自然和人为因素,自然因素中,甲醛柱浓度受地形影响显著,与风向、气温均呈现显著正相关;人为因素中,甲醛柱浓度与人口密度、地区生产总值、工业废气排放量及建筑房屋竣工面积均表现出正相关关系,与工业废气排放量的相关度最高.大气中甲醛分子与气溶胶粒子二者间呈显著正相关关系,这进一步说明甲醛浓度受到了诸多因素的综合影响,但气溶胶粒子、气温及工业废气的排放是主导因素. 相似文献
5.
采用全球气候模式Nor ESM1-M产生的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和植物异戊二烯排放计算模型,模拟分析了未来气候变化对武夷山自然保护区毛竹(Phyllostachys pubescens)异戊二烯排放速率的影响.结果显示,气候变化下武夷山自然保护区气温上升,年降水量和辐射强度波动较大,呈增加或下降趋势.毛竹异戊二烯平均日排放速率在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下高约30μg·g~(-1)·d~(-1),在RCP8.5情景下比基准情景下高约48μg·g~(-1)·d~(-1);毛竹异戊二烯日排放速率在未来气候变化情景与基准情景下的差异在1~90 d和301~365 d较小,在91~300 d差异较大;相比基准情景,未来气候变化情景下毛竹异戊二烯日排放速率在1~190 d(平均增加15%以上)和271~365 d(平均增加20%)增幅较大,在191~270 d增幅较小,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大(平均增加17%).另外,毛竹异戊二烯年排放速率在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下约高10000μg·g~(-1)·a~(-1)以上,在RCP8.5情景下比基准情景下约高13%.研究表明,未来气候变化将使毛竹异戊二烯排放速率增加. 相似文献
6.
气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明:HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。 相似文献
7.
长江源区水文气象要素变化及其与大尺度环流因子关系研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
长江源区水文气象要素变化及其归因研究一直备受全球关注,现阶段研究多侧重于水文气象要素时空变化特征分析,针对长江源区水文气象要素与大尺度环流因子相互关系的研究不足。论文利用Mann-Kendall法、去趋势波动分析法和小波分析法,探究长江源区1957—2012年水文气象要素趋势性、波动性和周期性变化规律,分析水文气象要素与大尺度环流因子的相关关系,通过研究水汽通量揭示大尺度环流因子对水文气象要素变化的驱动机制。结果表明:20世纪90年代,长江源区气候暖干化,进入21世纪后,长江源区气候暖湿化趋势明显;长江源区水文气象要素序列具有正长程相关性,长江源区气候未来会继续呈现暖湿化变化趋势。长江源区水文气象要素都存在着1~5、10~24和25~45 a三种时间尺度周期变化规律。南亚季风是影响长江源区降水量和流量较为重要的大气环流因子,南亚季风驱动下的西南方向气流是长江源区主导气流和水汽来源。 相似文献
8.
阿图什市空气质量变化趋势分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
分析了阿图什市“八五”至“九五”期间空气质量监测数据不同年度、不同季节及不同污染因子的动态变化趋势.结合当地能源结构、气候特征、城市环境综合发展水平,指出影响阿图什市空气质量的主要因素,为防治和减轻阿图什市的空气污染提供了科学依据。 相似文献
9.
The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies. 相似文献
10.
Assessing protected area effectiveness using surrounding (buffer) areas environmentally similar to the target area 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Mas JF 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2005,105(1-3):69-80
Many studies are based on the assumption that an area and its surrounding (buffer) area present similar environmental conditions and can be compared. For example, in order to assess the effectiveness of a protected area, the land use/cover changes are compared inside the park with its surroundings. However, the heterogeneity in spatial variables can bias this assessment: we have shown that most of the protected areas in Mexico present significant environmental differences between their interior and their surroundings. Therefore, a comparison that aims at assessing the effectiveness of conservation strategies, must be cautioned. In this paper, a simple method which allows the generation of a buffer area that presents similar conditions with respect to a set of environmental variables is presented. The method was used in order to assess the effectiveness of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, a protected area located in the south-eastern part of Mexico. The annual rate of deforestation inside the protected area, the standard buffer area (based upon distance from the protected area only) and the similar buffer area (taking into account distance along with some environmental variables) were 0.3, 1.3 and 0.6%, respectively. These results showed that the protected area was effective in preventing land clearing, but that the comparison with the standard buffer area gave an over-optimistic vision of its effectiveness. 相似文献