A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

Recent advances in catalytic decomposition of ozone

Ozone (O₃), as a harmful air pollutant, has been of wide concern. Safe, efficient, and economical O₃ removal methods urgently need to be developed. Catalytic decomposition is the most promising method for O₃ removal, especially at room temperature or even subzero temperatures. Great efforts have been made to develop high-efficiency catalysts for O₃ decomposition that can operate at low temperatures, high space velocity and high humidity. First, this review describes the general reaction mechanism of O₃ decomposition on noble metal and transition metal oxide catalysts. Then, progress on the O₃ decomposition performance of various catalysts in the past 30 years is summarized in detail. The main focus is the O₃ decomposition performance of manganese oxides, which are divided into supported manganese oxides and non-supported manganese oxides. Methods to improve the activity, stability, and humidity resistance of manganese oxide catalysts for O₃ decomposition are also summarized. The deactivation mechanisms of manganese oxides under dry and humid conditions are discussed. The O₃ decomposition performance of monolithic catalysts is also summarized from the perspective of industrial applications. Finally, the future development directions and prospects of O₃ catalytic decomposition technology are put forward.     

数值模拟的可视化及其实现技术

此文介绍了一个用于数值模拟过程的二维图形界面,它由两大部分组成:“MANU”实现计算结果的手工操作显示及编辑,“AUTO”用于数值计算过程的自动跟踪.文中详细介绍了系统的设计方法、结构、工作原理和主要功能.     

新疆D矿田金矿资源定量评价

本文在建立D矿田找矿信息层次模型基础上,确定矿田统计单元划分和地质变量提取的赋值原则,将该矿田划分出466个统计单元,提取25个地质变量并进行二态赋值,而后应用数量化理论Ⅲ。特征分析法及勃尔法等方法,建立了矿田金矿资源定量评价模型,定位预测了45个勘探靶区。     

上海市在用车推行I/M制度中检测方法的研究

对在用车实施I/M制度，采用底盘测功机模拟道路工况检测汽车排放污染物，按美国国家环保局（EPA）推荐的方法有3种：瞬态短工总法（IM240）、稳态加速模拟工况法（ASM）和瞬态短工部简易质量分析检测法（VMAS）。根据上海市的试验结果，对上述3种方法的检测精度、设备投资以及运行维护诸方面进行分析比较，阐明上海市采用VMAS方法的依据和应注意的问题，并对应采用的模拟道路工况提出了看法。     

旋压变形数值模拟中局部加载卸载问题的处理

此文介绍了旋压加工数值模拟中遇到的局部加载卸载问题的处理方法,并对筒形件强力旋压过程进行了数值模拟,求得了变形区应力应变的分布,理论计算结果与变形实际和实测结果完全吻合.     

过程模拟法在清洁生产研究中的应用

以醋酸清洁生产为例，介绍了过程模拟法在清洁生产研究中的应用。利用现代过程模拟技术，可在较小人力、物力投入的前提下，获得更多的系统信息，有利于清洁生产工艺的确定及操作参数的优化。     

海洋疏浚Mont Carlo数值计算

利用Mont Carlo方法模拟海洋疏浚过程中悬浮泥沙的扩散.结合洋浦近岸海域疏浚工程,计算了悬沙输运轨迹及浓度分布,计算结果较为合理.该模型在近海工程环境影响评价中具有应用价值.     

What do economic simulations tell us? Recent mergers in the iron ore industry

This paper investigates the European Commission's decision to allow a merger between two Brazilian iron ore mining companies, CVRD and Caemi, using data on the Direct Reduced Iron pellet market. By using a simulation model, we can directly simulate the total welfare effects from the merger and hence evaluate the merger from a new perspective. The results from our simulations suggest that the welfare effects are negative from the merger between CVRD and Caemi, which supports the conclusion drawn by the European Commission decision. By performing different simulations between hypothetical merger candidates, our results show that only mergers between small candidates have the potential to be welfare enhancing.