A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

大城市的城市化发展战略和途径研究--以南京市为例

城市化从本质上是一种经济社会结构变动过程，南京市作为长江三角洲的副中心城市和江苏省省会，需要认真研究在经济全球化背景下，如何加快推进城市化进程，发挥中心城市功能，促进城市现代化和可持续发展。城市化水平的提高、大城市中心功能的加强、较为明显的城乡二元结构是南京市城市化过程中的基本特征。南京城市化的发展遇到了前所未有的机遇，江苏省已经提出了大力规划建设以南京市为中心的都市圈，并在2001、2002连续2年扩张南京市区的范围，大大加强了南京市的综合实力。南京的城市化发展主要途径在于提升城市功能，奠定城市化的经济基础；以城市空间优化为支点，以基础设施建设为引导，提高城市现代化水平；增强中心城市辐射功能．带动城乡一体的发展。推进南京城市化的进程还必须要制定一些政策和措施傲保证，如加快户籍制度和土地制度的改革、加大投资融资的力度、制定各类切实可行的规划等等。     

加强建设 量化管理 推进环境监测事业持续发展

介绍了南京市环境监测中心站近年来在拓展监测能力,提升监测现代化水平,优化资源配置,加强队伍建设,强化制度建设,实施目标管理等方面采取的举措,指出在我国环境保护发生历史性转变的关键时期,环境监测站应在社会、经济、环境的协调发展中,充分发挥为管理服务的前瞻性、监测信息上报的及时性及实施环境决策的支持性作用,积极推进环境监测事业持续发展.     

南京东郊石炭纪威宁期的风暴沉积

南京东郊石炭纪威宁期碳酸盐岩地层中普遍见有风暴沉积,以有突变的底界和底面构造、贝壳层、粒序层以及在风暴低能快速堆积条件下所形成的遮蔽构造等为基本鉴别要素,这些要素的不同组合构成的剖面结构可划分为五种类型,据此笔者提出本区风暴沉积的综合剖面结构。     

南京市的环境地质问题及对策

南京市因城市建设的飞速发展、生产生活规模的不断扩大，引发了许多环境地质问题。文章论述了南京市存在的不同类型的环境地质问题，并提出了相应的对策。     

南京市城区气溶胶粒度分布特征

以九段串级式撞击采样器对南京市气溶胶进行采样测定。经统计分析发现，气溶胶呈双峰分布，粒度分布规律明显，峰值粒径在0.37μm-0.65μm和4．3μm-5.6μm之间，气溶胶浓度季节变化显著，秋季＞夏秋，秋季颗粒物中细粒子质量百分比较夏季的多，两季质量中位位直径分别为6．5μm,4,4μm，说明与季节变化密切相关。     

典型焊接结构CAD专家系统的研究与应用

论述了典型焊接结构CAD专家系统的内涵、设计思想和设计方法过程以及应用前景。     

TOPHAZOP: a knowledge-based software tool for conducting HAZOP in a rapid, efficient yet inexpensive manner

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies constitute an essential step in the risk analysis of any chemical process industry and involve systematic identification of every conceivable abnormal process deviation, its causes and abnormal consequences. These authors have recently proposed optHAZOP as an alternative procedure for conducting HAZOP studies in a shorter span of time than taken by conventional HAZOP procedure, with greater accuracy and effectiveness [Khan, F. I. and Abassi, S. A., optHAZOP. An effective and efficient technique for hazard identification and assessment Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1997, 10, 191–204]. optHAZOP consists of several steps, the most crucial one requires use of a knowledge-based software tool which would significantly reduce the requirement of expert man-hours and speed up the work of the study team. TOPHAZOP (Tool for OPTmizing HAZOP) has been developed to fulfil this need.

The TOPHAZOP knowledge-base consists of two main branches: process-specific and general. The TOPHAZOP framework allows these two branches to interact during the analysis to address the process-specific aspects of HAZOP analysis while maintaining the generality of the system. The system is open-ended and modular in structure to make easy implementation and/or expansion of knowledge. The important features of TOPHAZOP and its performance on an industrial case study are described.     

南京北郊春季气溶胶吸湿性分析

大气气溶胶的吸湿性对气溶胶粒子的谱分布、云凝结核形成、气候强迫、人体健康等均有重要的影响.利用吸湿性串联差分迁移率分析仪(HTDMA)在2014年4月16日~5月21日对南京北郊的大气气溶胶吸湿特性进行观测.30~230 nm气溶胶粒子在90%相对湿度下的吸湿增长观测结果表明,气溶胶粒子的吸湿增长因子平均概率分布函数(GF-PDF)呈现明显的双峰分布,即一个占主导地位的强吸湿模态,和一个相对较小但仍很明显的弱吸湿模态.对吸湿性的日夜对比分析发现,整体上白天的气溶胶粒子吸湿性大于夜间气溶胶粒子,白天强吸湿模态的粒子数目比例高于夜间,夜间气溶胶粒子的外混合程度更高.利用HYSPLIT模式对气溶胶来源分析结果表明,观测期间南京北郊主要受到3类气团的影响.其中西北大陆气团背景下爱根核模态粒子在经过大陆的长距离输送过程后,老化程度较高,吸湿性也更强.而对于积聚模态粒子,则为来自东方气团的粒子吸湿性更强,强吸湿模态粒子数目比例也较高.局地气团背景下气溶胶粒子在各粒径段都具有较高的强吸湿比例.     

南京北郊黑碳气溶胶的来源解析

利用七波段黑碳仪对2015年1~12月南京北郊地区黑碳(black carbon,BC)气溶胶实时监测,并结合黑碳仪模型对该期间内BC进行来源解析,探讨化石燃料排放产生BC(BCff)与生物质燃烧产生BC(BCbb)各自的贡献大小.结果表明,观测期间BC的吸收波长指数(α)和生物质燃烧对BC的贡献百分比(BB)的变化范围都较大但趋势较为一致;冬季α值偏高而夏季α值较低,表明不同季节时间BC来源和强度的差异性.BCff在各季节BC总浓度中占比略有不同但均高于75%;BC、BCff和BCbb的日变化趋势均呈双峰特征,在07:00~09:00和18:00~21:00左右浓度有最大值;全天中,BCff对BC贡献最大,浓度值约为BCbb的3~5倍;夜晚BC浓度普遍高于白天,其平均浓度值是白天的1.2倍.由浓度权重轨迹分析的结果可知,影响南京北郊地区高浓度BC的源区主要集中在浙江、安徽以及江西和福建等地区.