新疆巩留县博图沟泥石流灾害及灾因分析

本文分析了1991年新疆博图沟罕见泥石流灾害及灾因,认为这次灾害主要是自然因素,与人为因素关系不大,并提出了在山区工作、游牧应注意的事项。     

判别符合率递增法辅助酚类化合物构效关系研究

计算了酚类化合物的分子连接性指数及其在正辛醇和水之间的分配系数ｌｏｇＰ，运用新近提出的数学方法－判别符合率递增法，对酚类化合物的构效关系进行了研究，所得结果优于逐步判别法及穷举法。     

Aspects of Hydrocarbon Fingerprinting Using PLS-New Data From Prince William Sound

Partial least squares (PLS) techniques are used in the re-analysis of NOAA hydrocarbon data previously investigated in Mudge (2002). New data have been provided for coal and oil signatures and these have been investigated further. The effects of zeros (less than the limit of detection) in the dataset can be overcome by addition of small values at approximately half of this limit; this then enables logarithms to be taken of the entire dataset which greatly improved the usefulness of principal component analysis (PCA). Source samples collected close to each other had different signatures, probably due to their environmental histories which was also seen when aliphatic hydrocarbons were included in the signatures. Key compounds describing each could be seen in Coomans' Plots. Signatures developed from formation oils, riperian oils and coals from the eastern Gulf of Alaska (GoA) provided mean fits to subtidal samples within PWS of 22, 19 and 38% respectively. This suggests mixed and variable sources across the sampling area. The overall conclusion must be a question regarding the partitioning between oil and coal source materials as they look very similar in this particular location.     

劳动河水质的模糊综合评价及分析

利用劳动河8个点位的水质监测数据,以地面水环境质量为标准,运用模糊数学方法,分析劳动河各点位污染状况,综合评价劳动河水质污染程度,确定主要污染点位及主要污染因子,为劳动河污染控制提供科学依据。     

加强冰封期的污染防治是松花江治理的关键

冰封期有机污染加重是松花江最重要的环境污染特征之一，加强松花江冰封期的有机污染防治，是解决松花江有机污染的关键。文章论述了松花江冰封期有机污染加重的原因和污染防治措施及重要意义。     

树立科学发展观推动经济与环境协调发展

本文以沈阳市3年创建环保模范城实践为例,用经济与环境的绩效,综合论述了环境与经济的协调发展在实现城市可持续发展中的重要作用。并明确了科学发展观的核心是“以人为本”,在处理好经济增长与环境保护、资源与环境、环境与发展的三者关系上进行了探讨。     

工程复杂系统灾害形成与自愈防范原理研究

工程安全科学是涵盖机电工程、过程工程、信息论、系统论、控制论、耗散结构理论、医学、人文科学、社会科学的一门新兴科学。工程安全科学应该而且必将列入我国基础学科发展的行列。笔者探讨了工程安全科学的定义,重点研究工程活动中人-机-过程-环境复杂系统故障、事故发生发展及其防治、根除的规律,研究危险源隐患转化为危害或灾害的条件和影响因素及其监测、预防和控制。提出并讨论了工程系统灾害形成的机理,工程复杂系统灾害形成遵循的共性规律,工程复杂系统故障和事故的诊断预测以及灾害的防治原理。安全度既取决于危险又取决于控制能力。与故障作斗争是与疾病作斗争以另一种方式的延续。借鉴医学的“自主调理是治疗学的第一原理”和系统科学的自组织理论,提出并研究了故障自愈原理及安全的动态评价与灾害的自愈防范机制。该研究的理论和成果是落实科学发展观、促进人-机和谐和实现安全、绿色、节约型流程制造的重要途径。     

我国现行大气环境影响评价预测模型的若干问题及其改进

我国现行大气环境影响预测评价模型存在以下几个问题:大气混合层高度求算偏低;稳定条件下大气扩散计算结果不合理;模型未考虑非扩散因素影响(干湿沉积、化学转化);非正常排放模型在小风、静风条件下计算结果偏大;熏烟模型计算的不可操作性等。本文针对这些问题提出相应的改进方法,并进行了实例计算。     

Low-maturity Kulthieth Formation Coal: A Possible Source of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Benthic Sediment of the Northern Gulf of Alaska

The successful application of forensic geology to contamination studies involving natural systems requires identification of appropriate endmembers and an understanding of the geologic setting and processes affecting the systems. Studies attempting to delineate the background, or natural, source for hydrocarbon contamination in Gulf of Alaska (GOA) benthic sediments have invoked a number of potential sources, including seep oils, source rocks, and coal. Oil seeps have subsequently been questioned as significant sources of hydrocarbons present in benthic sediments of the GOA in part because the pattern of relative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) abundance characteristic of benthic GOA sediments is inconsistent with patterns typical of weathered seep oils. Likewise, native coal has been dismissed in part because ratios of labile hydrocarbons to total organic carbon (e.g. PAH: TOC) for Bering River coal field (BRCF) sources are too low--i.e. the coals are over mature--to be consistent with GOA sediments. We present evidence here that native coal may have been prematurely dismissed, because BRCF coals do not adequately represent the geochemical signatures of coals elsewhere in the Kulthieth Formation. Contrary to previous thought, Kulthieth Formation coals east of the BRCF have much higher PAH: TOC ratios, and the patterns of labile hydrocarbons in these low thermal maturity coals suggest a possible genetic relationship between Kulthieth Formation coals and nearby oil seeps on the Sullivan anticline. Analyses of low-maturity Kulthieth Formation coal indicate the low maturity coal is a significant source of PAH. Source apportionment models that neglect this source will underestimate the contribution of native coals to the regional background hydrocarbon signature.     

Statistical Issues in Assessing Anthropogenic Background for Arsenic

Conceptual and statistical issues surrounding the estimation of a background concentration distribution for arsenic are reviewed. How background area is defined and samples collected are shown to impact the shape and location of the probability density function that in turn affects the estimation and precision of associated distributional parameters. The overall background concentration distribution is conceptualized as a mixture of a natural background distribution, an anthropogenic background distribution and a distribution designed to accommodate the potential for contamination site samples being included into the background sample set. This concept is extended to a discussion of issues surrounding estimation of natural and anthropogenic background distributions for larger geographic areas. Finally, the mixture model is formally defined and statistical approaches to estimating its parameters discussed.