气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响

借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期（1961—1979年）和影响期（① 1980—1989年、② 1990—1999年、③ 2000—2016年）,利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量（VIC）模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响 ② 期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响 ① 期和 ③ 期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响 ① 期和 ③ 期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响 ② 期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。     

长江三角洲地区耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性分析

在分析中国耕地总量动态平衡政策产生背景及区域耕地数量变化驱动因素的基础上,通过建立耕地总量动态平衡政策运行效果评价的社会经济影响因素分析模型,根据当前长江三角洲地区社会经济发展的趋势,认为2005年这一地区是有可能实现耕地总量动态平衡这一政策目标的。但是,2010年该地区耕地拥有量将与耕地总量动态平衡目标相差9.12%,因而实现耕地总量动态平衡的难度较大。同时,研究区域所属的11个城市耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性也不一样,具体有4种类型:一是可以实现平衡的,为江苏省泰州市和浙江省湖州市;二是较难实现平衡的,有江苏省南通市、镇江市、常州市和浙江省嘉兴市;三是难以实现平衡的,有江苏省南京市、苏州市、无锡市和扬州市;四是实现平衡可能性不大的,为上海市。同时,文章还认为耕地质量的改善对于区域耕地保护具有实质性的积极意义。     

序批式反应器的水力停留时间的理论探讨

根据液龄分布函数是二元函数的观点．推导出了当进、出水流量是时间的函数时，反应器的水力停留时间的通用积分式和离散式；然后得出了序批式反应器(SBR）的水力停留时间(HRT)具体表达式，并分析了用现有方法计算其水力停留时间所产生的误差．结果表明，最大相对误差rmax仅与充水比λ有关．且呈正相关关系．取典型值λ=0．4时，rmax高达25％。     

钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷的精密度偏性试验分析

通过钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷的精密度偏性试验及其结果分析,提出本标准方法用光程10mm比色皿比色测定时,由于测定的灵敏度较低,使总磷低浓度测定的精密度和准确度难于达到标准方法要求;建议钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷时,最好选用30mm比色皿比色测定.     

水入渗条件下边坡破坏离心模型试验研究

水的人渗能对土体强度产生较大的影响,它是造成边坡破坏的一个主要因素.不同含水量土质边坡的离心模型试验表明:边坡的破坏类型与其含水量大小有关,且主要存在两种破坏类型:一种是含水量较小时形成的拉裂缝破坏,另一种是含水量较大时形成的整体滑塌破坏;同时,含水量与边坡的最大稳定高度呈非线性关系.进一步的损伤力学分析表明,随着土体含水量的增加,损伤变量增大,并存在一个突变点;通过同离心模型试验结果比较,发现该突变点对应的含水量可作为两种破坏类型的判据.     

可变情报板对交通安全的影响分析

目前,可变情报板作为最基础、最常用的诱导信息发布平台被大量安装在道路两侧。一方面,它在一定程度上分散了车辆的聚集,减少了车辆的巡游;而另一方面,由于对可变情报板的设置、显示等方面的研究不足,它对交通安全带来了一定的影响,或者诱导效果并不理想。笔者主要围绕北京市西直门桥周边的可变情报板进行调研,从多个方面分析了可变情报板对交通安全的影响,列出了主要的影响因素,如刷新频率、视认性等,并给出了一定的量化指标。     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

Biogeographical and Taxonomic Biases in Tropical Forest Fragmentation Research

Despite several decades of research on the effects of fragmentation and habitat change on biodiversity, there remain strong biases in the geographical regions and taxonomic species studied. The knowledge gaps resulting from these biases are of particular concern if the forests most threatened with modification are also those for which the effects of such change are most poorly understood. To quantify the nature and magnitude of such biases, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature on forest fragmentation in the tropics for the period 1980–2012. Studies included focused on any type of response of single species, communities, or assemblages of any taxonomic group to tropical forest fragmentation and on fragmentation‐related changes to forests. Of the 853 studies we found in the SCOPUS database, 64% were conducted in the Neotropics, 13% in Asia, 10% in the Afrotropics, and 5% in Australasia. Thus, although the Afrotropics is subject to the highest rates of deforestation globally, it was the most disproportionately poorly studied biome. Significant taxonomic biases were identified. Of the taxonomic groups considered, herpetofauna was the least studied in the tropics, particularly in Africa. Research examining patterns of species distribution was by far the most common type (72%), and work focused on ecological processes (28%) was rare in all biomes, but particularly in the Afrotropics and for fauna. We suggest research efforts be directed toward less‐studied biogeographic regions, particularly where the threat of forest fragmentation continues to be high. Increased research investment in the Afrotropics will be important to build knowledge of threats and inform responses in a region where almost no efforts to restore its fragmented landscapes have yet begun and forest protection is arguably most tenuous. Sesgos Biogeográficos y Taxonómicos en la Investigación de la Fragmentación de Bosques Tropicales     

The difficulties of systematic reviews

The need for robust evidence to support conservation actions has driven the adoption of systematic approaches to research synthesis in ecology. However, applying systematic review to complex or open questions remains challenging, and this task is becoming more difficult as the quantity of scientific literature increases. We drew on the science of linguistics for guidance as to why the process of identifying and sorting information during systematic review remains so labor intensive, and to provide potential solutions. Several linguistic properties of peer‐reviewed corpora—including nonrandom selection of review topics, small‐world properties of semantic networks, and spatiotemporal variation in word meaning—greatly increase the effort needed to complete the systematic review process. Conversely, the resolution of these semantic complexities is a common motivation for narrative reviews, but this process is rarely enacted with the rigor applied during linguistic analysis. Therefore, linguistics provides a unifying framework for understanding some key challenges of systematic review and highlights 2 useful directions for future research. First, in cases where semantic complexity generates barriers to synthesis, ecologists should consider drawing on existing methods—such as natural language processing or the construction of research thesauri and ontologies—that provide tools for mapping and resolving that complexity. These tools could help individual researchers classify research material in a more robust manner and provide valuable guidance for future researchers on that topic. Second, a linguistic perspective highlights that scientific writing is a rich resource worthy of detailed study, an observation that can sometimes be lost during the search for data during systematic review or meta‐analysis. For example, mapping semantic networks can reveal redundancy and complementarity among scientific concepts, leading to new insights and research questions. Consequently, wider adoption of linguistic approaches may facilitate improved rigor and richness in research synthesis.     

Effects of publication bias on conservation planning

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.