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建立了模拟单一潜在震源区地震孕育和发生的等效物理模型,给出了通过调整各次地震之间断层位移速率来拟合已有地震序列的方法。通过考虑模型参数的不确定性,提出了在未来一定年限内潜在震源区发生震级在不同震级段的概率预报方法。通过两种等效物理模型的对比,本文认为就工程地震危险性评定而言,可用简单的滑块-弹簧模型代替滑块-弹粘塑性模型 相似文献
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PSA中人因失误模型化研究 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
主要研究PSA模型如何考虑人因失误的影响,系统地提出如何在电厂系统模型中建立相对应的人因失误分析模型。利用事件树把系统故障和人因失误相结合的方法,探讨如何最大可能地真实描述事故后的操纵员行为,确定重要人因事件发展序列以及根据系统响应确定合理可分析的人因题头,建立完整的人因失误模型化的体系,并以实例说明具体分析过程。此项研究能够较好地描述硬件可靠性和人因可靠性之间的关联关系,降低HRA出力并满足PSA对于事故后人员行为的概率分析需求。 相似文献
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The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities. 相似文献
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Costa Rica's Payment for Environmental Services Program: Intention, Implementation, and Impact 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
G. ARTURO SÁNCHEZ-AZOFEIFA ALEXANDER PFAFF† JUAN ANDRES ROBALINO† JUDSON P. BOOMHOWER‡ 《Conservation biology》2007,21(5):1165-1173
Abstract: We evaluated the intention, implementation, and impact of Costa Rica's program of payments for environmental services (PSA), which was established in the late 1990s. Payments are given to private landowners who own land in forest areas in recognition of the ecosystem services their land provides. To characterize the distribution of PSA in Costa Rica, we combined remote sensing with geographic information system databases and then used econometrics to explore the impacts of payments on deforestation. Payments were distributed broadly across ecological and socioeconomic gradients, but the 1997–2000 deforestation rate was not significantly lower in areas that received payments. Other successful Costa Rican conservation policies, including those prior to the PSA program, may explain the current reduction in deforestation rates. The PSA program is a major advance in the global institutionalization of ecosystem investments because few, if any, other countries have such a conservation history and because much can be learned from Costa Rica's experiences. 相似文献
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MERCELYNE KHALUMBA TOBIAS WüNSCHER SVEN WUNDER MIRJAM BüDENBENDER KARIN HOLM‐MüLLER 《Conservation biology》2014,28(3):861-866
Cost‐effectiveness is an important aspect in the assessment of payments for environmental services (PES) initiatives. In participatory field trials with communities in Western Kenya, we combined procurement auctions for forest enrichment contracts with performance‐based payments and compared the outcomes with a baseline scenario currently used by the Kenyan Forest Service. Procurement auctions were the most cost‐effective. The competitive nature of the auction reduced contracting expenses (provision costs), and the result‐oriented payments provided additional incentives to care for the planted seedlings, resulting in their improved survival rates (service quantity). These gains clearly exceeded increases in transaction costs associated with conducting an auction. The number of income‐poor auction participants and winners was disproportionately high and local institutional buy‐in was remarkably strong. Our participatory approach may, however, require adaptations when conducted at a larger scale. Although the number of contracts we monitored was limited and prohibited the use of statistical tests, our study is one of the first to reveal the benefits of using auctions for PES in developing countries. Combinando Subastas y Pagos Basados en Desempeño en un Ensayo de Campo de Enriquecimiento de Bosques en el Oeste de Kenia 相似文献
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An assessment of adherence to basic ecological principles by payments for ecosystem service projects
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C.M. Prager A. Varga P. Olmsted J.C. Ingram M. Cattau C. Freund R. Wynn‐Grant S. Naeem 《Conservation biology》2016,30(4):836-845
Programs and projects employing payments for ecosystem service (PES) interventions achieve their objectives by linking buyers and sellers of ecosystem services. Although PES projects are popular conservation and development interventions, little is known about their adherence to basic ecological principles. We conducted a quantitative assessment of the degree to which a global set of PES projects adhered to four ecological principles that are basic scientific considerations for any project focused on ecosystem management: collection of baseline data, identification of threats to an ecosystem service, monitoring, and attention to ecosystem dynamics or the formation of an adaptive management plan. We evaluated 118 PES projects in three markets—biodiversity, carbon, and water—compiled using websites of major conservation organizations; ecology, economic, and climate‐change databases; and three scholarly databases (ISI Web of Knowledge, Web of Science, and Google Scholar). To assess adherence to ecological principles, we constructed two scientific indices (one additive [ASI] and one multiplicative [MSI]) based on our four ecological criteria and analyzed index scores by relevant project characteristics (e.g., sector, buyer, seller). Carbon‐sector projects had higher ASI values (P < 0.05) than water‐sector projects and marginally higher ASI scores (P < 0.1) than biodiversity‐sector projects, demonstrating their greater adherence to ecological principles. Projects financed by public–private partnerships had significantly higher ASI values than projects financed by governments (P < 0.05) and marginally higher ASI values than those funded by private entities (P < 0.1). We did not detect differences in adherence to ecological principles based on the inclusion of cobenefits, the spatial extent of a project, or the size of a project's budget. These findings suggest, at this critical phase in the rapid growth of PES projects, that fundamental ecological principles should be considered more carefully in PES project design and implementation in an effort to ensure PES project viability and sustainability. 相似文献