持续农业,气候变化与有害生物持续治理

21世纪，随着世界人口的增加，首先将面临着对粮食及其它农产品的需求量的增加。要达到粮食稳定和人类的需求量，其制约的因素很多。本文就气候变化、有害生物的持续治理、对持续农业的影响进行了探讨。     

Climate change and the geography of weed damage: Analysis of U.S. maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations

By the end of the century, climate change projections under a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario suggest a globally averaged warming of 2.4–6.4 °C. If these forecasts are realized, cropping systems are likely to experience significant geographic range transformations among damaging endemic weed species and new vulnerabilities to exotic weed invasions. To anticipate these changes and to devise management strategies for proactively addressing them, it is necessary to characterize the environmental conditions that make specific weed species abundant, competitive, and therefore damaging the production of particular crops (i.e. defining the damage niche). In this study, U.S. maize is used as a model system to explore the implications of climate change on the distribution of damaging agricultural weeds. To accomplish this, we couple ensemble climate change projections of annual temperature and precipitation with survey data of troublesome weed species in maize. At the state scale, space-for-time substitution techniques are used to suggest the potential magnitude of change among damaging weed communities. To explore how the geography of damage for specific species may evolve over the next century, bioclimatic range rules were derived for two weed species that are pervasive in the Northern (Abutilon theophrasti Medicus, ABUTH) and Southern (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers., SORHA) U.S. Results from both analyses suggest that the composition of damaging weed communities may be fundamentally altered by climate change. In some states, potential changes in the coming decades are commensurate to those possible by the end of the century. Regions such as the Northeastern U.S. may prove particularly vulnerable with emerging climate conditions favoring few weed species of present-day significance. In contrast, regions like the mid-South are likely to experience fewer shifts even with a similar magnitude in climate change. By the end of the century in the U.S. Corn Belt, cold-tolerant species like A. theophrasti may be of minor importance whereas S. halepense, a predominantly Southern U.S. weed species at present, may become common and damaging to maize production with its damage niche advancing 200–600 km north of its present-day distribution.     

Describing and measuring ethno-entomological knowledge of rice pests: tradition and change among Asian rice farmers

The paper presents a methodology that guided several ethnoentomological research projects and goes on to examine and compare the results from two independent research locations in Asia. The first location is in the Philippines, a Green Revolution area that has been heavily impacted by extension messages and insecticide use. The second location is in Nepal which has a traditional subsistence orientation and has remained widely unaffected by agricultural modernization. The paper emphasizes the differences and similarities of the results from the two sites and discusses the role of the methodology and methods used in capturing ethnoentomological knowledge, particularly with regard to insect pests in rice. The results of both investigations share the importance of agronomic criteria among farmers in insect classification and sorting criteria, thus highlighting the relevance of functional criteria. Farmers at both research sites have difficulties in identifying the lifecycles of insects. We discuss the issues of tradition and change in farmer entomological knowledge and providing support to the knowledge base of farmers though programs like IPM-Farmer Field Schools as opposed to broad-based recommendations for crop pest management.Article type: MS-ENVI-SI ETHNOSCI MS04 Contribution to Environment, Development & Sustainability, special issue ‘Bridging the gap between natural resources and their human management for the future using ethnoscience’.