A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Seasonal variation and size distribution of biogenic secondary organic aerosols at urban and continental background sites of China

Size-resolved biogenic secondary organic aerosols(BSOA) derived from isoprene and monoterpene photooxidation in Qinghai Lake, Tibetan Plateau(a continental background site) and five cities of China were measured using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry(GC/MS). Concentrations of the determined BSOA are higher in the cities than in the background and are also higher in summer than in winter. Moreover, strong positive correlations(R2= 0.44–0.90) between BSOA and sulfate were found at the six sites,suggesting that anthropogenic pollution(i.e., sulfate) could enhance SOA formation,because sulfate provides a surface favorable for acid-catalyzed formation of BSOA. Size distribution measurements showed that most of the determined SOA tracers are enriched in the fine mode( 3.3 μm) except for cis-pinic and cis-pinonic acids, both presented a comparable mass in the fine and coarse( 3.3 μm) modes, respectively. Mass ratio of oxidation products derived from isoprene to those from monoterpene in the five urban regions during summer are much less than those in Qinghai Lake region. In addition, in the five urban regions relative abundances of monoterpene oxidation products to SOA are much higher than those of isoprene. Such phenomena suggest that BSOA derived from monoterpenes are more abundant than those from isoprene in Chinese urban areas.     

大气微小颗粒物中汞的污染特性初步研究

采用分级采样器采集大气中微小颗粒物中的汞,用冷原子吸收测汞仪分析。结果表明,颗粒态汞浓度随粒径分布呈双峰型,2个峰值分别出现在粒径1.0μm和4.0μm左右,与水溶性离子,碳含量的粒径分布基本一致。PM_(1.6)、PM_(8)和TSP中颗粒态汞的浓度分别为0.150、0.273、0.429ng/m~3,汞的质量分数分别为3.75.1.09、1.07μg/g,高于背景参考值;结果还表明,颗粒态汞主要集中在细颗粒中。通过正态概率分布测算,PM_(1.6)、PM_(6)中汞主要来自于1个主体源;PM_(1.6)中汞的浓度与硫酸根离子呈显著性相关,而与硝酸根离子、氯离子则不显著相关:说明颗粒物中汞的主要来源可能与燃煤有关。     

Simultaneous determination of dissolved organic nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate and ammonia using size exclusion chromatography coupled with nitrogen detector

Accurate quantification of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) has been a challenge due to the cumulative analytical errors in the conventional method via subtracting dissolved inorganic nitrogen species (DIN) from total dissolved nitrogen (TDN). Size exclusion chromatography coupled with an organic nitrogen detector (SEC-OND) has been developed as a direct method for quantification and characterization of DON. However, the applications of SEC-OND method still subject to poor separations between DON and DIN species and unsatisfied N recoveries of macromolecules. In this study, we packed a series of SEC columns with different lengths and resin materials for separation of different N species and designed an independent vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) oxidation device for complete oxidation converting N species to nitrate. To guarantee sufficient N recoveries, the operation conditions were optimized as oxidation time ≥ 30 min, injection mass (sample concentration × injection volume) < 1000 µL × mg-N/L for macromolecular proteins, and neutral pH mobile eluent. The dissolved O₂ concentration in SEC mobile phase determined the upper limit of VUV oxidation at a specific oxidation time. Compared to conventional HW50S column (20 × 250 mm), HW40S column (20 × 350 mm) with mobile phase comprising of 1.5 g/L Na₂HPO₄·2H₂O + 2.5 g/L KH₂PO₄ (pH = 6.85) could achieve a better separation of DON, nitrite, nitrate, and ammonia. When applied to river water, lake water, wastewater effluent, groundwater, and landfill leachate, the SEC-OND method could quantify DON as well as DIN species accurately and conveniently even the DIN/TDN ratio reached 0.98.     

办公室空气颗粒物的粒度分布初探

用气溶胶自动分析仪对办公室内空气中的颗粒物进行了测定。测定结果表明：颗粒物的数量浓度、总表面积、质量浓度与颗粒物粒径在双对数坐标图上均呈直线关系，颗粒物浓度峰 粒径１￣２μｍ处。另外，吸烟对办公室内颗粒物的粒度分布影响较大。     

Metal distribution characteristic of MSWI bottom ash in view of metal recovery

Bottom ash is the major by-product of municipal solid waste incineration(MSWI), and is often reused as an engineering material, such as road-base aggregate. However, some metals(especially aluminum) in bottom ash can react with water and generate gas that could cause expansion and failure of products containing the ash; these metals must be removed before the ash is utilized. The size distribution and the chemical speciation of metals in the bottom ash from two Chinese MSWI plants were examined in this study, and the recovery potential of metals from the ash was evaluated. The metal concentrations in these bottom ashes were lower than that generated in other developed countries. Specifically, the contents of Al,Fe, Cu and Zn were 18.9–29.2, 25.5–32.3, 0.7–1.0 and 1.6–2.5 g/kg, respectively. Moreover,44.9–57.0 wt.% of Al and 55.6–75.4 wt.% of Fe were distributed in bottom ash particles smaller than 5 mm. Similarly, 46.6–79.7 wt.% of Cu and 42.9–74.2 wt.% of Zn were concentrated in particles smaller than 3 mm. The Fe in the bottom ash mainly existed as hematite, and its chemical speciation was considered to limit the recovery efficiency of magnetic separation.     

千岛湖溶解氧的动态分布特征及其影响因素分析

基于2011~2012年1~12月千岛湖6个站点的溶解氧浓度实时监测数据,分析了千岛湖溶解氧的垂直分布以及时空分布特征,并探讨了影响水体溶解氧动态分布特征的影响因子.结果表明,溶解氧分布特征有明显的垂向差异以及季节差异.冬季,平均溶解氧值较高,除大坝前站点,其余各站点溶解氧无显著垂向差异;夏季,溶解氧垂向差异显著大于春秋两季.水深较深的小金山、三潭岛和大坝前站点其夏季溶解氧最大值出现在真光层,分别达到11.59、12.52和10.96 mg·L-1.千岛湖表层溶解氧最大值出现在春季,而最小值出现在秋季.相关性分析结果表明,溶解氧与水温、pH、叶绿素a浓度的相关性存在季节性差异.夏季,水温与溶解氧存在极其显著的线性相关,温度热力分层是影响溶解氧在夏季垂直分布的关键因素.春夏季,pH、叶绿素a浓度与溶解氧的相关系数较高,主要与浮游植物光合作用有关.     

春、夏季长江口及其邻近海域溶解N2O的分布和海-气交换通量

分别于2012年3月和7月对长江口及其邻近海域进行了调查,对水体中溶解氧化亚氮(N2O)的分布及海-气交换通量进行了研究.结果表明,春季长江口及其邻近海域表层海水中溶解N2O浓度范围为9.34~49.08 nmol·L-1,平均值为(13.27±6.40)nmol·L-1.夏季表层溶解N2O浓度范围为7.27~27.81 nmol·L-1、平均值为(10.62±5.03)nmol·L-1.两航次表、底层海水中溶解N2O浓度相差不大.长江口溶解N2O浓度由近岸向外海逐渐降低,受陆源输入影响显著.溶解N2O浓度高值出现在长江口最大浑浊带附近,这主要是由于水体中较高的硝化速率造成的.温度是影响N2O分布的另一个重要因素,对溶解N2O浓度有双重作用.春季和夏季表层海水中N2O饱和度范围分别为86.9%~351.3%和111.7%~396.0%,平均值分别为(111.5±41.4)%和(155.9±68.4)%,大部分站位处于过饱和状态.利用LM86、W92和RC01公式分别计算了长江口及其邻近海域N2O的海-气交换通量,春季分别为(3.2±10.9)、(5.5±19.3)和(12.2±52.3)μmol·(m2·d)-1,夏季分别为(7.3±12.4)、(12.7±20.4)和(20.4±35.9)μmol·(m2·d)-1,初步估算出长江口及其邻近海域的年平均释放量分别为0.6×10-2Tg·a-1(LM86)、1.1×10-2Tg·a-1(W92)、2.0×10-2Tg·a-1(RC01).长江口及其邻近海域虽然只占全球海洋总面积的0.02%,但其释放的N2O占全球海洋释放量的0.06%,表明长江口及其邻近海域是产生和释放N2O的活跃区域.     

苏南典型河段磷的分布及释放特性研究

通过测定常州典型河段河水和底泥中的磷含量,同时分析了磷在不同底泥颗粒中含量分布的变化,阐述了河流中磷的分布和转移趋势。结果表明:河水中的磷含量通常低于底泥间隙水中的磷含量,但当河流发生富营养化后,底泥中的磷大量向上层水体释放,使得河水中的磷含量不断增加。底泥有效磷与总磷含量之间没有明显相关性,而与底泥间隙水的磷含量之间存在着交换平衡。底泥颗粒以2μm~50μm的粒级为主,即以细砂和粉砂质有机-无机聚合体矿物颗粒为主。磷在底泥颗粒中的含量随着底泥粒径的增大而减少,且粒径越大的颗粒对磷的吸附能力越弱,其中的磷向外释放的可能性越大。     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.