基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.     

Small queens in the ant Ectatomma tuberculatum: a new case of social parasitism

Social parasites exploit the worker force of colonies of other social insects to rear their own young. Social parasitism occurs in several Hymenoptera and is particularly common in several tribes of the ant subfamilies Myrmicinae and Formicinae. Here, we document the occurrence of miniaturized queens (microgynes) in colonies of Ectatomma tuberculatum, an ant belonging to the subfamily Ectatomminae. Behavioral observations and genetic analyses show that microgynes concentrate their reproductive efforts almost exclusively on the production of sexual offspring (microgynes and males), whereas the regular, large queens (macrogynes) produce workers in addition to sexuals. According to mitochondrial and nuclear markers, gene flow between microgynes and macrogynes is extremely limited. Whereas the co-occurrence of microgynes and macrogynes in the related species Ectatomma ruidum constitutes an intraspecific polymorphism associated with alternative dispersal tactics, microgynes found in colonies of E. tuberculatum appear to be a distinct species and to represent the first case of social parasitism in the poneromorph subfamilies of ants.     

北京水灾及其社会影响

北京在历史上曾发生多次重大水灾,给人民生命财产、城市建设及社会安定带来了巨大影响。形成水灾的主要因素是永定河决口泛溢和区域雨涝。现从大量的历史文献中列举几个实例,来看水灾的严重程度及其影响后果。     

Food aid and food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Statistical trends and implications*

This paper documents the rapid expansion and changes in food aid flows to Sub-Saharan Africa up to mid-1985. Trends for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole and for the more seriously affected countries are examined, as are the comparative experiences of food aid of individual countries in the region. Table 11 lists the Sub-Saharan African countries and indicates the most seriously affected food-short countries, as defined by the WFP/FAO task force. It should be borne in mind that some practical problems exist in compiling data on food aid. These include lack of availability of reliable data, especially of most recent data; lack of common terminology and definitions; and different accounting systems. These data problems are sometimes a source of confusion. However, the basic facts are clear: food aid gradually emerged during the early 1980s as a resource too often of considerable significance to many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. These trends were only accelerated with the crisis of 1984-1985. These facts provide a point of reference for further analysis of the sources of the crisis, its actual dimensions and consequences.     

Attitudes of women of childbearing age towards prenatal diagnosis in Southeastern France

The objective of this study was to explore women's attitudes towards prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 and to examine some of the factors possibly responsible for these attitudes before implementing in real practice serological screening of pregnant women at risk for trisomy 21. We carried out a telephone survey on a representative sample of women who had recently had a normal livebirth delivery in the Marseille district in 1990. The participation rate was 80 per cent and the average age of the mothers was 28-9 years. Among the 514 women interviewed, 78 per cent stated that they would ask for an amniocentesis for a 1 per cent risk of trisomy 21 at their next pregnancy. When adjusting for confounding factors, the decision to have or not to have an amniocentesis was found to depend not only on the women's attitude towards induced abortion, but also on their understanding of the risk involved and on the social context (knowing a handicapped child, discussion with the father). It also depended on the women's age and on what they knew about amniocentesis from the medical point of view. The risk of miscarriage can influence a woman's choice but this objection was not found to affect the women's decisions significantly in our survey. The data showed the existence of a high potential demand for fetal karyotyping.     

板材成形新技术及其发展趋势(Ⅱ)

介绍了多点成形技术、激光成形技术、冲压智能化技术、成形过程的计算机仿真技术等几种柔性化程度高的板材成形新技术及其发展趋势     

从第31届国际地质大会命题看：地球科学研究的热点和趋势

本文论述了第 31届国际地质大会学科和专题命题情况 ,统计了大会收到的论文和摘要数并将各命题重新排序。将位于前 12位的学科和前 5位的专题命题进一步列出重点讨论题目和摘要数。通过与第 30届国际地质大会命题的比较 ,试图大致了解国际地球科学研究的热点和趋势 ;通过上述分析和了解 ,就地球科学与可持续发展阐述了笔者的认识 ,提出了地球科学基础性研究和应用基础研究的重点领域     

论安全的社会属性

安全不仅是一种物质技术的状态和条件 ,而且也是一种社会现象和过程。安全是社会性的人的生存和发展需要。这种需要渗透在社会结构的各个层面 ,表现为安全的生产力属性、利益关系属性、社会生活属性、文化属性和政治属性。笔者分析了上述 5种安全社会属性的产生、内容、演化及其相互联系 ,提出对安全社会原理的若干看法。研究有关安全的社会现象、过程和规律 ,有利于认识安全工作的社会地位、作用、目标和社会调整机制 ,形成安全技术进步的动力和保障条件 ,对于当前社会实践和学科建设有重要意义。     

遂宁市城区大气中二氧化硫、二氧化氮和总悬浮颗粒物的污染现状及其成因分析

依据近5年的环境空气监测基础数据，分析评价了遂宁市城区大气中周报监测项目(二氧化硫、二氧化氮、总悬浮颗粒物)的污染现状，并对其变化趋势及其成因进行了系统分析。