基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

Small queens in the ant Ectatomma tuberculatum: a new case of social parasitism

Social parasites exploit the worker force of colonies of other social insects to rear their own young. Social parasitism occurs in several Hymenoptera and is particularly common in several tribes of the ant subfamilies Myrmicinae and Formicinae. Here, we document the occurrence of miniaturized queens (microgynes) in colonies of Ectatomma tuberculatum, an ant belonging to the subfamily Ectatomminae. Behavioral observations and genetic analyses show that microgynes concentrate their reproductive efforts almost exclusively on the production of sexual offspring (microgynes and males), whereas the regular, large queens (macrogynes) produce workers in addition to sexuals. According to mitochondrial and nuclear markers, gene flow between microgynes and macrogynes is extremely limited. Whereas the co-occurrence of microgynes and macrogynes in the related species Ectatomma ruidum constitutes an intraspecific polymorphism associated with alternative dispersal tactics, microgynes found in colonies of E. tuberculatum appear to be a distinct species and to represent the first case of social parasitism in the poneromorph subfamilies of ants.     

Study on Assessing Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Regions

The main purpose of this study is to assess economic vulnerability of small island development regions as part of their sustainability constraints. By combining economic and environmental time series data, we assessed a composite index of economic vulnerability which is constructed from three exogenous variables, namely economic exposure, economic remoteness, and economic impact of environmental and natural disasters. We used the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan as the case studies for this paper.The results indicated that using a gross island products based valuation index, Kikaijima is the most vulnerable island in the Amami Islands with a composite economic vulnerability index (CEVI) value of 0.678, while by using a per capita based index, Okinoerabujima is considered the most vulnerable island with a CEVI value of 0.680. From the results we also revealed that smaller islands have relative higher vulnerability than the bigger one, which also confirms some previous country-level vulnerability studies.However, it is matter of fact that some islands that have relatively high vulnerability also have good economic performance as shown by their per capita income. In this regard, it can be argued that the success of these small islands could have been achieved in spite of and not because of their inherent vulnerability conditions as an indicator of sustainability constraint. Regarding these findings, we also examined a comparison between vulnerability results and the preliminary concept of an island's resilience in order to capture another perspective on sustainability assessment in a small island region.     

北京水灾及其社会影响

北京在历史上曾发生多次重大水灾,给人民生命财产、城市建设及社会安定带来了巨大影响。形成水灾的主要因素是永定河决口泛溢和区域雨涝。现从大量的历史文献中列举几个实例,来看水灾的严重程度及其影响后果。     

Attitudes of women of childbearing age towards prenatal diagnosis in Southeastern France

The objective of this study was to explore women's attitudes towards prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 and to examine some of the factors possibly responsible for these attitudes before implementing in real practice serological screening of pregnant women at risk for trisomy 21. We carried out a telephone survey on a representative sample of women who had recently had a normal livebirth delivery in the Marseille district in 1990. The participation rate was 80 per cent and the average age of the mothers was 28-9 years. Among the 514 women interviewed, 78 per cent stated that they would ask for an amniocentesis for a 1 per cent risk of trisomy 21 at their next pregnancy. When adjusting for confounding factors, the decision to have or not to have an amniocentesis was found to depend not only on the women's attitude towards induced abortion, but also on their understanding of the risk involved and on the social context (knowing a handicapped child, discussion with the father). It also depended on the women's age and on what they knew about amniocentesis from the medical point of view. The risk of miscarriage can influence a woman's choice but this objection was not found to affect the women's decisions significantly in our survey. The data showed the existence of a high potential demand for fetal karyotyping.     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia through Community Capacity Enhancement

Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.     

工业控制网络安全风险及防护策略

分析了工业企业工控系统网络面对诸如自身漏洞、工业协议、操作系统、杀毒软件以及管理缺陷等日益增多的安全风险,需要采用分区隔离、边界防护、异常检测、访问控制、限制接入、健全管理等多种技术、管理手段,建立纵深防御体系,提升工业控制系统的网络安全防护水平,以抵御工业控制网络面临的安全风险。     

论安全的社会属性

安全不仅是一种物质技术的状态和条件 ,而且也是一种社会现象和过程。安全是社会性的人的生存和发展需要。这种需要渗透在社会结构的各个层面 ,表现为安全的生产力属性、利益关系属性、社会生活属性、文化属性和政治属性。笔者分析了上述 5种安全社会属性的产生、内容、演化及其相互联系 ,提出对安全社会原理的若干看法。研究有关安全的社会现象、过程和规律 ,有利于认识安全工作的社会地位、作用、目标和社会调整机制 ,形成安全技术进步的动力和保障条件 ,对于当前社会实践和学科建设有重要意义。