Development and optimization of an Agro-BGC ecosystem model for C4 perennial grasses

Extrapolating simulations of bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems beyond data-rich sites requires biophysically accurate ecosystem models and careful estimation of model parameters not available in the literature. To increase biophysical accuracy we added C₄ perennial grass functionality and agricultural practices to the Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) ecosystem model. This new model, Agro-BGC, includes enzyme-driven C₄ photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon and nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that simulates nitrogen fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. To obtain spatially generalizable vegetation parameters we used a numerical method to optimize five unavailable parameters for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) using biomass yield data from three sites: Mead, Nebraska, Rockspring, Pennsylvania, and Mandan, North Dakota. We then verified simulated switchgrass yields at three independent sites in Illinois (IL). Agro-BGC is more accurate than Biome-BGC in representing the physiology and dynamics of C₄ grass and management practices associated with agro-ecosystems. The simulated two-year average mature yields with single-site Rockspring optimization have Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 70, 152, and 162 and biases of 43, −87, 156 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. The simulated annual yields in June, August, October, December, and February have RMSEs of 114, 390, and 185 and biases of −19, −258, and 147 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. These RMSE and bias values are all within the largest 90% confidence interval around respective IL site measurements. Twenty-four of twenty-six simulated annual yields with Rockspring optimization are within 95% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements during the mature fourth and fifth years of growth. Ten of eleven simulated two-year average mature yields with Rockspring optimization are within 65% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements and the eleventh is within the 95% confidence interval. Rockspring optimized Agro-BGC achieves accuracies comparable to those of two previously published models: Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) and Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). Agro-BGC suffers from static vegetation parameters that can change seasonally and as plants age. Using mature plant data for optimization mitigates this deficiency. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme using mature plant data from more sites would be adequate for generating spatially generalizable vegetation parameters for simulating mature bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems with Agro-BGC.     

Environmental and economic analysis of switchgrass production for water quality improvement in northeast Kansas

The primary objectives of this research were to determine SWAT model predicted reductions in four water quality indicators (sediment yield, surface runoff, nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) in surface runoff, and edge-of-field erosion) associated with producing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) on cropland in the Delaware basin in northeast Kansas, and evaluate switchgrass break-even prices. The magnitude of potential switchgrass water quality payments based on using switchgrass as an alternative energy source was also estimated. SWAT model simulations showed that between 527,000 and 1.27 million metric tons (Mg) of switchgrass could be produced annually across the basin depending upon nitrogen (N) fertilizer application levels (0-224 kg N ha(-1)). The predicted reductions in sediment yield, surface runoff, NO(3)-N in surface runoff, and edge-of-field erosion as a result of switchgrass plantings were 99, 55, 34, and 98%, respectively. The average annual cost per hectare for switchgrass ranged from about 190 US dollars with no N applied to around 345 US dollars at 224 kg N ha(-1) applied. Edge-of-field break-even price per Mg ranged from around 41 US dollars with no N applied to slightly less than 25 US dollars at 224 kg N ha(-1) applied. A majority of the switchgrass produced had an edge-of-field break-even price of 30 Mg(-1) US dollars or less. Savings of at least 50% in each of the four water quality indicators could be attained for an edge-of-field break-even price of 22-27.49 US dollars Mg(-1).     

Modeling water and soil quality environmental impacts associated with bioenergy crop production and biomass removal in the Midwest USA

The removal of corn stover or production of herbaceous crops such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) or big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) as feedstocks for bioenergy purposes has been shown to have significant benefits from an energy and climate change perspective. There is potential, however, to adversely impact water and soil quality, especially in the United States Corn Belt where stover removal predominantly occurs and possibly in other areas with herbaceous energy crops depending upon a number of geo-climatic and economic factors. The overall goal of this research was to provide a thorough and mechanistic understanding of the relationship between stover and herbaceous crop production management practices and resulting range of impacts on soil and water quality, with a focus on eastern Iowa, USA. Comparisons of the production of herbaceous bioenergy crops to continuous corn (Zea mays L.) and corn-soybean (Glycine max L.) rotations on five different soils representative of the region were performed. Indices for total nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loss to surface water and groundwater, total soil loss due to water and wind erosion, and cumulative soil carbon loss were derived to assess long-term sustainability. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) agroecosystem model was used to quantify the sustainability indices and to generate sufficient data to provide a greater understanding of variables that affect water and soil quality than previously possible. The results clearly show the superiority of herbaceous crop production from a soil and water quality perspective. They also show, however, that compared to traditional cropping systems (e.g., corn-soybean rotations with conventional tillage), soil and water quality degradation can be reduced under certain conditions at the same time stover is removed.     

Modeling the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on soil CO2 fluxes from a Switchgrass stand recently converted from cropland

Switchgrass(Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial C_4 grass native to North America and successfully adapted to diverse environmental conditions. It offers the potential to reduce soil surface carbon dioxide(CO_2) fluxes and mitigate climate change. However, information on how these CO_2 fluxes respond to changing climate is still lacking. In this study, CO_2 fluxes were monitored continuously from 2011 through 2014 using high frequency measurements from Switchgrass land seeded in 2008 on an experimental site that has been previously used for soybean(Glycine max L.) in South Dakota, USA. DAYCENT, a process-based model, was used to simulate CO_2 fluxes. An improved methodology CPTE[Combining Parameter estimation(PEST) with "Trial and Error" method] was used to calibrate DAYCENT. The calibrated DAYCENT model was used for simulating future CO_2 emissions based on different climate change scenarios. This study showed that:(i) the measured soil CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land were higher for 2012 which was a drought year, and these fluxes when simulated using DAYCENT for long-term(2015–2070) provided a pattern of polynomial curve;(ii) the simulated CO_2 fluxes provided different patterns with temperature and precipitation changes in a long-term,(iii) the future CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land under different changing climate scenarios were not significantly different, therefore, it can be concluded that Switchgrass grown for longer durations could reduce changes in CO_2 fluxes from soil as a result of temperature and precipitation changes to some extent.     

Carbon exchange by establishing biofuel crops in Central Illinois

Perennial grass biofuels may contribute to long-term carbon sequestration in soils, thereby providing a broad range of environmental benefits. To quantify those benefits, the carbon balance was investigated over three perennial grass biofuel crops - miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and a mixture of native prairie plants - and a row crop control (maize-maize-soy) in Central Illinois, USA, during the establishment phase of the perennial grasses (2008-2011). The eddy covariance technique was used to calculate fluxes of carbon dioxide and energy balance components, such as latent and sensible heat fluxes. Whereas maize attained the highest maximal carbon uptake rates, the perennial grasses had significantly extended growing seasons, such that their total carbon uptake rivaled that of corn in the second growing season and greatly exceeded that of soy in the third growing season. To account for the removal of carbon through harvest, net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) was combined with estimates of yields, resulting in the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). After 2.5 years, NECB for the maize/soybean plot was positive (a source of carbon), while the grasses were a sink of carbon. Continuous measurements over the next years are required in order to confirm whether miscanthus, switchgrass and prairie can sustain a long-term sink of carbon if managed for biofuels, i.e., if harvested annually.