Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Evolution of environmental impact assessment as applied to watershed modification projects in Canada

This article reviews the application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures and practices to three watershed modification projects situaled in western Canada. These ventures were justified for accelerating regional economic development, and cover the period during which public concerns for protecting the environment rapidly made their way into the national political agenda. An historical account and analysis of the situation, therefore, seems desirable in order to understand the development of EIA processes, practices, and methodologies since the start of construction of the first project in 1961. This study concludes that there has been good progress in predicting and evaluating environmental and related social impacts of watershed modification proposals. However, a number of obstacles need to be overcome before EIA can firmly establish itself as an effective planning tool. These difficulties include jurisdictional confusions and conflicts, division of authority and responsibility in designing and implementing appropriate mitigative and monitoring measures, lack of tested EIA methodologies, and limited availability of qualified human resources. A number of conclusions and suggestions are offered so that future watershed modification proposals may be planned and implemented in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. These include: (1) EIA processes must be completed before irrevocable decisions are made. (2) Any major intrusion into a watershed is likely to impact on some major components of the ecosystem(s). (3) Mitigation costs must form part of the benefit-cost analysis of any project proposal. (4) Interjurisdictional cooperation is imperative where watersheds cross political boundaries. (5) The EIA process is a public process, hence public concerns must be dealt with fairly. (6) The role of science in the EIA process must be at arms length from project proponents and regulators, and allowed to function in the interest of the protection of the environment and public health and safety. The views expressed here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of FEARO and/or other government agencies and officials involved in the review of these projects.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

灰色局势决策用于水环境质量的评价

按灰色系统理论的观点和方法，根据各污染因子对环境质量的不同影响，将灰色局势决策法应用于水环境质量综合评价，并与水质距离评价法，模糊综合评判法和灰色关联度分析法进行了比较，结果表明，利用灰色局势决策法进行环境质量评价，是一种有效的实用方法。     

生命周期评价在企业清洁生产中的应用

企业清洁生产是解决环境污染问题的重要手段。利用生命周期评价思想对企业的生产过程进行全面分析与评价，做好企业清洁生产的审计工作。     

定量风险评价标准探讨

围绕定量评价标准对风险的度量和制定风险评价标准的基本原则等方面的进展和存在的问题进行了初步的探讨，分析归纳了国处有着的个人风险和社会风险标准，提出具有重大危害性的工业设施对员工或公众造成的风险，不应显著高于人们在日常生活中接触到其他风险；每年１０＾－６的死亡风险是可以忽略不计的个人风险水平等观点。     

在纺织品生产中推行生命周期评价

随着社会的进步和全民环境意识的提高，人们对纺织品的健康安全要求也越来越高。在此，结合纺织品生产和加工的四个阶段，包括纺织原料生产阶段、纺纱织造阶段、印染加工阶段及纺织品后整理阶段存在的化学品残留、噪声、废水、废气等环境问题，论述了在纺织服装生产中开展生命周期评价的重要意义。     

鄱阳湖水质状况分析与评价

鄱阳湖是我国最大的淡水湖,对其水质的监测和分析有着重要意义。本文通过1980～1988年水质监测资料的搜集整理,分析了鄱阳湖水质的时空分布规律,并作出了比较全面的评价。评价结果表明,鄱阳湖已受到轻度污染,但其水质总体状况尚属良好,是全国淡水湖泊中最好的湖泊之一。     

Assessing the impact of pesticides on the environment

Pesticide use in agriculture can cause undesirable effects on humans and the natural environment. One of the objectives of integrated agriculture is the elimination or reduction of possible sources of environmental pollution such as pesticides. To achieve this objective, farmers need a method to assist them in estimating the environmental impact of pesticide use. This paper addresses a two-part question: what factors should be taken into consideration to assess pesticide environmental impact, and how can impact be quantified? As the environmental impact of a pesticide depends on its dispersion in the environment and on its toxicological properties, the literature on these topics is reviewed to address the first part of the question. To address the second part of the question, six recent approaches to assess the impact of pesticides on the environment are compared regarding choice, transformation and aggregation of input parameters. The use of simulation models to assess environmental impact is discussed.     

Method of pollution sources assessment in relation to residential site selection

Much investigation supports a high incidence of disease and death rates when people live in ambient polluted air for a long time. Thus, the location of residential sites is important from a public health viewpoint. The method outlined in this paper is useful for determining the location of residential sites based on pollution sources assessment.