四川乌头和附子气候生态适宜性研究

本文在分析乌头和附子的生态要求及其主要分布产区的气候环境的基础上,根据模糊集合论(Fuzzy sets)分别建立乌头和附子5个生态气候要素的隶属函数模型,以50个市(县)气象台(站)为代表,综合评价了四川省乌头和附子产地气候条件的生态适宜性;根据综合评判结果,分别将四川划分为3个乌头不同适宜区和4个附子不同适宜区。     

The Capacity of Australia's Protected‐Area System to Represent Threatened Species

Abstract: The acquisition or designation of new protected areas is usually based on criteria for representation of different ecosystems or land‐cover classes, and it is unclear how well‐threatened species are conserved within protected‐area networks. Here, we assessed how Australia's terrestrial protected‐area system (89 million ha, 11.6% of the continent) overlaps with the geographic distributions of threatened species and compared this overlap against a model that randomly placed protected areas across the continent and a spatially efficient model that placed protected areas across the continent to maximize threatened species’ representation within the protected‐area estate. We defined the minimum area needed to conserve each species on the basis of the species’ range size. We found that although the current configuration of protected areas met targets for representation of a given percentage of species’ ranges better than a random selection of areas, 166 (12.6%) threatened species occurred entirely outside protected areas and target levels of protection were met for only 259 (19.6%) species. Critically endangered species were among those with the least protection; 12 (21.1%) species occurred entirely outside protected areas. Reptiles and plants were the most poorly represented taxonomic groups, and amphibians the best represented. Spatial prioritization analyses revealed that an efficient protected‐area system of the same size as the current protected‐area system (11.6% of the area of Australia) could meet representation targets for 1272 (93.3%) threatened species. Moreover, the results of these prioritization analyses showed that by protecting 17.8% of Australia, all threatened species could reach target levels of representation, assuming all current protected areas are retained. Although this amount of area theoretically could be protected, existing land uses and the finite resources available for conservation mean land acquisition may not be possible or even effective for the recovery of threatened species. The optimal use of resources must balance acquisition of new protected areas, where processes that threaten native species are mitigated by the change in ownership or on‐ground management jurisdiction, and management of threatened species inside and outside the existing protected‐area system.     

BENEFITS OF ITERATIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C., METROPOLITAN AREA1

The three largest water utilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) rely on the Potomac River and its reservoirs for water supply. These utilities have committed to a periodic review of the system's adequacy to meet future demands. In 1990, 1995, 2000, and again in 2004 (for publication in 2005) the utilities requested that the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) conduct a 20‐year water demand and resource adequacy study to fulfill this need. The selection of the five‐year interval provides multiple benefits. It allows regular updates and incorporation of recent demographic forecasts, and it increases visibility and understanding of the adequacy of the region's water resources. It also provides adequate time to conduct research on the physical system and to incorporate modifications based on this research into subsequent studies. The studies and lessons learned are presented in this case study of the WMA. The work has been a natural outgrowth of a long history of cooperative water supply planning and management among the main WMA water utilities and ICPRB.     

Patchy distribution fields: sampling distance unit of a zigzag survey and reconstruction adequacy

A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of choosingvarious units of sampling distance of a zigzag survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The modelsimulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapesand spatial orientations, and an acoustic survey by zigzag or parallel transects along which a unit of sampling distance is set. Adequacy of the reconstructed fields to those originally generated is evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). A priori information on the autocorrelation radii for the field in the directions of the survey (R_s) and perpendiculardirection (R_p) allows optimisation of the survey design andthe algorithm of data analysis. A field can be reconstructed properly (r² > 0.70) if the distance between transects D < (1.0–1.5)R_s and the unit of sampling distance d < (1.0–1.5)R_p. A posteriori determination of patchorientation allows reconstruction of the best field attainable onthe basis of the survey data. In cases of field movement, if thedimension of patches in the direction of movement exceeds that ofa surveyed area, a survey in the opposite direction gives bestresults; in contrast, if the dimension of moving patches is smaller than that of a surveyed area, it is reasonable to carryout a survey in the same direction. The criterion remains validwhen a survey is carried out by zigzag transects and a unit ofsampling distance is set along them. The results obtained indicate that, for a fixed transect spacing and a given number of sampling points on each full transect, zigzag pattern allowsless adequate reconstruction of an original distribution field (in cases of both immovable and movable fields) than corresponding parallel pattern.     

Patchy Distribution Fields: An Interleaved Survey Design and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to compare the effects of a regular (one-pass) or interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches of different shapes and spatial orientations, and a set of parallel or zigzag transects forming a regular or interleaved acoustic survey. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations. Regarding the immovable fields, the efficiency of a regular or interleaved acoustic survey was tested with the following two alternative assumptions: (1) the entire survey was completed; (2) the survey was interrupted for some reason at the moment when one transect remained non-accomplished. In the former case, the efficiencies of both acoustic surveys were nearly the same; in the latter case, the efficiency of an interleaved survey was superior to that of a regular one. With respect to movable fields, the efficiency of the completed interleaved surveys was even higher than that of the regular ones. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

环境损害司法鉴定意见采信标准研究

作为环境司法审判实践的关键环节,环境损害司法鉴定意见是事实判断与法律判断间的纽带。但科学探究与法律辩护是两种不同的认知模式。科学旨在对现象进行分析形成系统的知识;而法律是在有限的期限内对事实问题进行裁决,因此"事实判断""科学判断"与"法律判断"三者之间存在着天然的语言差异。且由于环境资源类司法鉴定的专业性强,鉴定人与法官的知识背景又各不相同,对该领域的知识可能并不了解,这可能会导致科学家(鉴定人)的科学知识不能与法官的法律知识相衔接,鉴定意见中的科学表述不能转化为法庭审判可以采用的关键证据,直接影响环境损害司法鉴定工作效率。为此,应当建立以真实性和充分性为主要类型的证据采信标准作为环境损害鉴定意见采信规则,提高审判质效,确保环境案件审判的科学性和公正性。     

Patchy distribution fields: a zigzag survey design and reconstruction adequacy

A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of a zigzagsurvey design on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches(or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an acoustic survey by a set of transects forming a zigzag. Adequacyof the reconstructed fields to those originally generated was evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). A prioriinformation on the autocorrelation radius for the field in thedirection of a survey (R) allows optimization of survey design and the algorithm of data analysis. A patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r > 0.80) if the distance between transects D < (1.0–1.5)R. If a priori information onthe field is not available, the autocorrelation radius should bedetermined when reconstructing the field, i.e. a posteriori. In cases of field movement, the criterion for choosing a survey direction is based on the relationship betweenthe dimension of moving patches in the direction of movement andthat of the surveyed area. The results obtained indicate that, for a fixed transect spacing, zigzag pattern allow less adequatereconstruction of an original distribution field (in cases of both immovable and movable fields) than corresponding parallel pattern.     

MODELING WATER UTILIZATION IN LARGE-SCALE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS: A QUALITATiVE RESPONSE APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Given limited available data and the present state of knowledge on the social aspects of irrigation, there is a need to develop new quantitative methods to measure water management performance in large-scale systems. A qualitative response framework is adapted to formulate a dynamic logit model of weekly field water adequacy and quantify indirectly farmer water utilization. Model parameters are estimated in a weighted least-squares regression using four seasons of data from a Philippine canal system. Estimated coefficients and independent model forecasts indicate greater effective use of rainfall than irrigation in sustaining high levels of water adequacy during the rainy season. Irrigation utilization is two times higher in the dry season, while system location has a much smaller but still significant impact. Utilization rates for both rain and irrigation showed considerable responsiveness to the prevailing scarcity of water. The qualitative response approach is well suited to the aggregated data available for large-scale systems, and allows advances in modeling dynamic water management behavior. Formal evaluation of the model will require further empirical applications.     

Patchy Distribution Fields: Sampling Distance Unit of an Interleaved Survey and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of choosing various units of sampling distance of an interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an interleaved survey by parallel or zigzag transects, along which a unit of sampling distance is set. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). Regarding immovable fields, the experiments conducted indicate that a patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r ² > 0.70) if the distance between transects D < (1.5–2.0)R and the unit of sampling distance d < (1.5– 2.0)R _p. As, for regular surveys d < (1.0–1.5)R _p, it may be concluded that interleaved surveys are more efficient than regular ones because of the factor studied. In regard to movable fields, a comparison of the results of interleaved surveys with those of regular surveys directly indicates that the former may ensure a more adequate field reconstruction than the latter do. This fact confirms the previous conclusion that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.