中国原油进口来源国供应安全的定量评估

原油供给安全在中国国家安全中占有重要地位,对其定量评估可为防范风险提供政策参考。采用事件数据分析法定量测度中国与21个主要原油进口来源国之间的双边关系,结果表明：中国与大多数原油贸易伙伴的关系处于中低水平,但近十多年总体保持上升趋势,原油进口存在一定的政治关系风险但趋于下降。选用资源、政治、经济、运输、军事5个方面的11个指标,通过组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用集对分析方法评估中国21个原油进口来源国的供应安全度,并识别主要障碍因子。结果表明：21国供应安全度存在较大差异。部分中东国家、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦供应安全度较高,多数非洲国家和亚太国家供应安全度较低。供应国的原油资源状况、运输风险、政治风险是制约多数国家供应安全的主要障碍因素。为防范风险,中国需坚持开展多边“能源外交”,扩大战略石油储备等多方面施策方针。     

A fetus with a parvovirus B19 infection and congenital anomalies

A fetus with multiple structural defects was seen at prenatal ultrasound examination. After termination of the pregnancy a bilateral cleft lip, alveolus, and palate; micrognathia; and webbed joints were seen. Fetal tissues showed indications of infection, intranuclear inclusion bodies, chronic stress, haemolysis, arterial wall damage, and profuse haemorrhage. Parvovirus B19 DNA was detected in fetal tissues by dot hybridization after polymerase chain reaction. The possibility of parvovirus B19 infection leading to congenital malformations is discussed.     

Fetal urinary insulin-like growth factor I and binding protein 3 in bilateral obstructive uropathies

Fetal urinary concentrations of insulin-like growth factor I (UIGF-I) and binding protein 3 (UIGFBP-3) were determined in patients with prenatal diagnosis of bilateral obstructive uropathy. Patients were retrospectively assigned to three groups, on the basis of outcome: group 1, termination of pregnancies (n = 11) with sonographic evidence of severe oligohydramnios or renal dysplasia, confirmed at histological examination; group 2, patients (n = 10) with postnatal plasma creatinine > 50 μmol/1 at the age of 1 year (1 yr-pCreat); and group 3, patients (n = 16) with 1 yr-pCreat ≤ μmol/1. The results show a significant increase in UIGF-I and UIGFBP-3 in groups 1 (18 159 ± 9083 pg/ml; 2657 ± 669 ng/ml) and 2 (1574 ± 847 pg/ml; 176 ± 50 ng/ml) in comparison with group 3 (35 ± 6 pg/ml; 21 ± 2 ng/ml). UIGF-I and UIGFBP-3 were significantly correlated with postnatal plasma creatinine, and were both sensitive (90 per cent; 80 per cent) and specific (88 per cent; 88 per cent) for prediction of elevated 1 yr-pCreat (>50 μmol/1). Fetal urinary IGF-I and IGFBP-3 are increased in severe fetal bilateral obstructive uropathy, possibly reflecting tubular dysfunction or/and increased synthesis consequent upon fetal kidney injury. Their predictive value for postnatal renal function needs further assessment.     

生理因素对驾驶人行为及风险感知影响研究综述

为全面认识驾驶人行为及风险感知并分析行为成因,从驾驶人生理因素着手,从驾驶人视力、阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征和肌肉骨骼疾患3个方面梳理国内外驾驶人行为及风险感知的研究成果与研究不足。研究结果表明:驾驶人的生理疾病对其驾驶能力和危险感知存在显著影响;生理疾病严重程度与异常驾驶行为中的一般性失误、危险性失误行为之间具有显著正相关关系,疾病严重程度越高,出行失误行为的频率越高;之后可从理论和实验两方面着手,针对驾驶人的不同属性进行研究。     

Emerging market patterns in the recycled paper trade

The international recovered paper trade serves two important functions: increasing raw material availability in the paper and board industry and providing economic incentives to recycle. The purpose of this paper is to shed further light on emerging patterns in this trade by empirically analysing the changes in the bilateral trade flows of recycled paper between 1992 and 2008. According to our estimations, two important changes occurred in the 1990s and 2000s. First, the growing importance of developing economies in global recycled paper trade plays a significant role in import demand as a determinant of trade flows. Second, the changes in global trade patterns necessitate investigating the transportation cost measures used in applied research.     

双向聚能拉伸爆破及其在硐室成型爆破中的应用

针对当前定向断裂控制爆破存在的问题,结合某特大型硐室成型爆破工程的地质、工程条件,利用岩石耐压而怕拉的特性,提出了双向聚能拉伸爆破技术.对该技术的特点、破岩机理、力学模型作了详细介绍与分析.进行了现场双向聚能拉伸爆破基础试验研究.在此基础上,该技术被应用于硐室的方形断面(1个自由面)和岩锚梁(2个自由面)的成型爆破.现场试验及应用结果表明,双向聚能拉伸爆破工艺简单、操作方便,能有效地控制裂纹产生、发展方向及断裂面的形成,实现岩体的精确控制爆破,应用前景广阔.     

Early second-trimester diagnosis of sirenomelia

Two cases of sirenomelia are described, detected in the 14th and 16th weeks of gestation by transvaginal ultrasonography. A hypothesis for the aetiology of sirenomelia and its associated anomalies is discussed.     

Failure to detect fetal obstructive uropathy by second trimester ultrasound

The prenatal diagnosis, management and outcome of an hereditary obstructive uropathy is presented. Serial ultrasonic assessment of the fetal urinary tract was carried out from the early second trimester onward. Slight bilateral hydronephrosis as a first sign of obstructive uropathy was only established as late as 30 weeks of gestation. On the basis of weekly ultrasound scans, a conservative approach was adopted. In view of fetal maturity, labour was induced at 36 weeks resulting in the vaginal delivery of a male infant with moderate bilateral hydronephrosis. Neonatally, anuria developed due to bilateral obstruction of the ureters as a result of increasing bladder wall hypertrophy due to urethral valves. A bilateral uretero-cutaneostomy was carried out. The infant so far develops normally, and renal function is normal for age. Women at risk for fetal obstructive uropathy should have ultrasonic monitoring throughout pregnancy.     

双侧破裂模型对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析

根据震源理论,将由双侧破裂模型计算得到的场地Fourier谱,等价表述为从初始破裂点沿两个相反方向破裂的单侧破裂模型独立计算到的相同场地Fourier谱,以相对长度为权重的线性组合。据此,在远场假定下,得到了双侧破裂模型刻画地震动场分布的两个重要复变参数α1和α2,以及由它们确定场的孔径的解析表达式。最后,以一次地震为例,计算了α1和α2的实部和虚部,以及孔径随震中距、方位角和频率变化的三维图像。     

室内空气污染对慢性阻塞性肺部疾病的影响

为了探讨室内空气污染与慢性阻塞性肺部疾病(COPD)的关系,对云南省宣威县使用不同生活燃料、年龄≥40岁的农民10892人进行了COPD及其症状的现患率调查,同时测定了调查对象的最大呼气流速(PEF).结果表明,不同燃料造成的室内空气污染对COPD及其症状和最大呼气流速的作用顺序依次为有烟煤>无烟煤>柴.在调整了年龄、性别、吸烟和改灶年限等因素后发现,使用有烟煤和使用无烟煤的人群患COPD的危险性分别是使用柴的4.63倍和1.55倍.改灶年限越长,COPD及其症状的现患率越低,最大呼气流速越高.室内燃煤空气污染是影响宣威慢性阻塞性肺部疾病(COPD)的主要危险因素,改炉改灶对控制COPD及其症状的现患水平,改善肺功能具有积极的作用.