洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Mainstreaming human and large carnivore coexistence through institutional collaboration

Achieving coexistence between large carnivores and humans in human-dominated landscapes (HDLs) is a key challenge for societies globally. This challenge cannot be adequately met with the current sectoral approaches to HDL governance and an academic community largely dominated by disciplinary sectors. Academia (universities and other research institutions and organizations) should take a more active role in embracing societal challenges around conservation of large carnivores in HDLs by facilitating cross-sectoral cooperation to mainstream coexistence of humans and large carnivores. Drawing on lessons from populated regions of Europe, Asia, and South America with substantial densities of large carnivores, we suggest academia should better embrace the principles and methods of sustainability sciences and create institutional spaces for the implementation of transdisciplinary curricula and projects; reflect on research approaches (i.e., disciplinary, interdisciplinary, or transdisciplinary) they apply and how their outcomes could aid leveraging institutional transformations for mainstreaming; and engage with various institutions and stakeholder groups to create novel institutional structures that can respond to multiple challenges of HDL management and human–large carnivore coexistence. Success in mainstreaming this coexistence in HDL will rest on the ability to think and act cooperatively. Such a conservation achievement, if realized, stands to have far-reaching benefits for people and biodiversity.     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

Exploration of Science Parks

1 DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE PARKSThe concept of science park originated in the US. Manyterms are used to describe science parks, such as researchpark, technology park, science centre, research centre,innovation centre, and with various combination of these(MacDonald, 1987). The first science park in the worldis Stanford Industrial Park established in 1951. In 1955,only seven companies were located in the park. By 1980there were ninety companies including Hewlett PackardCompany, whic…     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

科技创新投入对环境全要素生产率的影响机制

使用2004~2015年的中国280个地级市的面板数据,对科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率间的非线性关系、内部影响机理和空间异质性进行分析,结果显示：科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率之间呈现倒N型关系,两个拐点的位置分别为7.722（2257.47万元）和9.610（14913.17万元）;在外部资本进入、污染治理、市场规模效应3种影响路径中,科技创新投入影响下的外部资本进入对环境全要素生产率依然存在污染避难所的负向效应,科技创新投入与外部资本间效应为0.1363,外部资本与环境全要素生产率间效应为-0.0065;科技创新投入能够增强企业的污染治理技术并提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应分别为-0.0277和-0.0311;科技创新的投入与高效益增强了市场规模效应,有效促进生产结构的转型进而提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应为0.0186和0.4346.空间异质性中,外部资本进入与溢出效应带来的污染避难所负效应在中部地区显著,在西部和东北部地区不显著,而污染天堂正效应在东部地区存在但不显著;污染创新治理投入的技术正溢出效应在东部和西部地区效应显著,在中部和东北部不显著;科技创新投入与市场需求规模效应在空间区域无差异且显著为正.建议依据科技创新投入的不同影响路径来实施空间差异化策略.     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流灾损土地利用及生态修复模式——以北川县都坝河小流域为例

汶川地震诱发了大量泥石流灾害,灾损土地利用和生态修复是灾区产业重建面临的重要课题。以北川县都坝河小流域为研究对象,通过调查灾损土地禀赋、灾害特征、土地需求,采取多因素耦合和关键因子限制分析法,探讨灾害胁迫条件下的经济活动与生态修复之间的互馈作用,结果表明：（1）流域新增土地供给源主要为泥石流灾损土地,土地资源化利用受灾害、聚落和产业结构控制;（2）灾损土地根据成因划分为沟口堆积型、沟道冲淤型以及岸坡侵蚀型,三者的肥力、安全性及交通条件等特征具有显著差异;（3）基于“因灾分区、耕地优先、产业共建、美居造景”的原则,建立了灾损土地的利用方式和生态修复模式,并选取杨家沟进行验证,沟域灾损土地利用方式为生态林地、产业林地及优质耕地,分别占比28.5%、56.3%、15.2%,生态修复措施主要为提高土地安全度、提升植被覆盖率和增强水保功能。该研究建立的震区土地利用和生态修复模式可有力协调人地矛盾、发展绿色经济和提升人居环境。     

资源科学的学科建设与人才培养模式的实践与思考

资源科学是自然科学、社会科学和工程技术科学相互交叉、相互渗透、相互结合的多学科横向发展的新学科领域,具有综合性、交叉性等学科特点。研究适应新时期面向国家和社会发展需求的资源科学学科建设与人才培养方向具有重要的科学与实践意义。在梳理资源科学的学科发展历程基础上,进一步探讨国内外高等院校资源科学的研究领域、学科体系建设、课程及专业设置和人才培养模式,总结了我国资源科学的学科建设和人才培养的成就与不足,以期更好地服务国家需求。     

地理学与资源科学研究的交叉与融合

交叉性以及通过学科交叉实现学科创新,是学科创新发展的重要特征。本文探讨了地理学和资源科学融合的学科基础,指出自然资源的稀缺性、自然资源的空间性、自然资源系统的复杂性和自然资源问题的应对性是地理学和资源学学科对象的共性;阐述了地理学、资源科学两者相互作用及其历史过程,梳理了地理学、资源科学与人地关系思想、可持续思想的发展关系,揭示了地理学和资源科学的差异性特征;地理学、资源科学的共性与差异性,促进了资源地理学的产生与发展。据此,提出了资源地理学的学科内容与方向,论述其全球及国家战略支撑,展望中国资源地理学的发展趋势,以期更好地认识中国地理学和资源学交叉融合的现状,从整体范畴上把握学科发展的脉络,促进学科之间的相互渗透,理论和方法的移植创新,不断开拓新的研究领域和提高学科研究水平。     

Conservation and management applications of the REEF volunteer fish monitoring program

The REEF Fish Survey Project is a volunteer fish monitoring program developed by the Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF). REEF volunteers collect fish distribution and abundance data using a standardized visual method during regular diving and snorkeling activities. Survey data are recorded on preprinted data sheets that are returned to REEF and optically digitized. Data are housed in a publicly accessible database on REEF's Web site (http: //www.reef.org). Since the project's inception in 1993, over 40,000 surveys have been conducted in the coastal waters of North America, tropical western Atlantic, Gulf of California and Hawaii. The Fish Survey Project has been incorporated into existing monitoring programs through partnerships with government agencies, scientists, conservation organizations, and private institutions. REEF's partners benefit from the educational value and increased stewardship resulting from volunteer data collection. Applications of the data include an evaluation of fish/habitat interactions in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, the development of a multi-species trend analysis method to identify sites of management concern, assessment of the current distribution of species, status reports on fish assemblages of marine parks, and the evaluation of no-take zones in the Florida Keys. REEF's collaboration with a variety of partners, combined with the Fish Survey Project's standardized census method and database management system, has resulted in a successful citizen science monitoring program.