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1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
2.
Carly E. Federman Durelle T. Scott Erich T. Hester 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(1):29-48
River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization. 相似文献
3.
湖北省2008年初低温雨雪冰冻过程气候特征分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
2008年初,湖北省出现了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害,直接经济损失高达110亿元以上,有必要对灾害期间的气候特征进行系统、科学的分析和总结。对湖北省76个气象站2008年1月12日~2月3日气温、降水(雪)、日照以及低温持续日数等要素进行时空间差异分析及历史与同期比较,并选取10个代表站历史上所有低温雨雪天气过程,对其过程持续低温日数、最长连续雨雪日数、过程极端低温进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)此次过程的平均气温异常偏低,该省大部为-1~-2℃,比常年同期偏低4~6℃,为各站历史同期最低,其中主要是最高气温异常偏低所致,但极端低温并不低;(2)降雪过程频繁,雨雪量异常偏多;(3)低温冰冻持续时间长,该省大部在16~22 d,位于历史第一;(4)日照异常偏少。持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势是湖北省大范围低温雨雪天气的直接原因。 相似文献
4.
5.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
6.
7.
Sofia A. Kyriakeas Mary C. Watzin 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(2):425-441
Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition. 相似文献
8.
Bunge Michael Khknen Mika A. Rmisch Winfried Opel Matthias Vogler Susanne Walkow Fred Salkinoja-Salonen Mirja Lechner Ute 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2007,14(1):3-10
Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated
waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively
few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different
(chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include
the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web.
In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade
organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly
of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic
bioremediation processes.
Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively.
The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF)
or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria
from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing.
Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated
dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination.
A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis
(p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong
decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating
disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich
layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically
active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence.
Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several
years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of
the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme
activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast,
the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically
active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation.
Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation
approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment.
Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de) 相似文献
9.
Ingrid Witters Hans Van Bokhoven A. Goossens Frans-André Van Assche Jean-Pierre Fryns 《黑龙江环境通报》2001,21(13):1119-1122
We report the prenatal diagnosis at 16 weeks' gestation of bilateral split-hand/split-foot malformation (SHSFM) with severe lobster claw deformity of hands and feet in a male fetus without associated malformations. A minor manifestation of SHSFM was present in the father with only mild bilateral foot involvement (syndactyly I–II; cleft II–III; left cutaneous syndactyly III–IV). Mutation analysis of the p63 gene on chromosome 3q27 showed a missense mutation 577A→G (predicting amino acid substitution K193E) in the father. This mutation has not been reported so far in SHSFM but resembles the previously reported 580A→G (predicting amino acid substitution K194E) in a family with SHSFM. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对1961~1990年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析,并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析,同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。 相似文献