酸沉降破坏材料造成的经济损失的估算研究

酸沉降对材料的破坏和其经济损失估算是国际上酸沉降研究领域听一个重要课题，国内在经方面的研究较少，文章通过对“两广酸沉降破坏材料造成的经济损失的估算”研究，提出了了一套较实用的经济损失估算方法。     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS IN WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT EFFLUENTS,SOUTH PLATTE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Accurate data about nutrient concentrations in wastewater treatment plant effluents are needed for river basin water-quality studies. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program in the South Platte River Basin, nutrient data were requested from 31 wastewater-treatment plants located in the basin. This article describes the types of nutrient data available from the plants, examines the variability of effluent nutrient concentrations, and discusses methods for estimation of nutrient concentrations where data are lacking. Ammonia was monitored at 88 percent of the plants, nitrite plus nitrate was monitored at 40 percent of the plants, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus were monitored at less than 25 percent of the plants. Median total nitrogen concentrations and median total phosphorus concentrations were small compared to typical literature estimates for wastewater-treatment plants with secondary treatment. Nutrient concentrations in effluent from wastewater-treatment plants varied widely between and within plants. For example, ammonia concentrations varied as much as 5 mg/L during a day, as much as 10 mg/L from day to day, and as much as 30 mg/L from summer to winter within a plant. In the South Platte River Basin, estimates of median annual ammonia and nitrite plus nitrate concentrations can be improved based on plant processes; and nitrite plus nitrate and organic nitrogen concentrations can be estimated based on ammonia concentrations. However, to avoid large estimation errors, more complete nutrient data from wastewater-treatment plants are needed for integration into river basin water quality studies. The paucity of data hinders attempts to evaluate the relative importance of point source and nonpoint source nutrient loadings to rivers.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

黄河三角洲湿地主导生态服务功能价值估算

黄河兰角洲湿地是全球暖温带最典型的河口三角洲湿地,具有多种生态服务功能.本文依据每种生态功能的特点和作用机理,分别运用生态经济学、环境经济学或资源经济学的方法对各主导生态服务功能的价值进行了量化估算.结果表明:在黄河三角洲湿地10项主导生态服务功能中,蓄水调洪和降解污染物的功能价值最大;黄河三角洲湿地单位面积价值大约是全国湿地平均单位面积价值的10倍,其中自然湿地的单位面积价值远高于人工湿地的单位面积价值.本研究结果使人们直观地看到了湿地给人类带来的福利,为湿地生态资源的合理定价、有效补偿提供了科学依据.     

猛进水库水环境问题研究

猛进水库是五家渠地区的主要水源地,也是乌鲁木齐市重要的淡水鱼供应基地.近年来,猛进水库水质呈不断恶化的趋势,水质为劣V类,为此,猛进水库水质恶化问题已经成为各级政府及公众十分关注的问题.本文选用新疆水环境监测中心多年对猛进水库水质监测及调查的资料,对猛进水库水质现状进行分析评价,运用季节性肯达尔(Kendall)检验等方法,分析了猛进水库水质变化趋势及影响猛进水库水质的主要污染源,提出了进一步保护猛进水库水质的建议,为改善其水环境质量提供依据.     

Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

Exchange of sulfur pollution between Bulgaria and Greece

The EMAP model (Eulerian Model for Air Pollution) is applied for calculating the sulfur concentration and deposition fields for 1995 as based upon Bulgarian and Greek sources. The country-to-country budgets show that about 4% of the sulfur oxides emitted by Bulgaria are deposited over Greek territory, estimated at 28 kt S. Only 2% of sulfur compounds emitted by Greece are deposited over Bulgaria, estimated at 6.2 kt S for 1995. This data is in agreement with EMEP/MSC-W estimates and provides more details concerning time and space. The results can be used in decision-making, negotiating and the development of contamination strategies.     

Interannual fluctuations in acoustic biomass estimates and in landings of small pelagic fish populations in relation to hydrology in the Strait of Sicily

The main results of research work carried out since 1998 with regard to the application of hydro-acoustic technologies for the evaluation of biomass and distribution of small pelagic fish species off the southern coast of Sicily are presented, taking into account information from hydrology and from ecology of the fish populations targeted. The biomass estimates and the population‐density charts presented concern the two main species, i.e. sardine Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792) and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758). Both the sardine and anchovy populations experienced large inter-annual fluctuations, with biomass estimates ranging from 6000 to over 36,000 tonnes (t) (sardine) and from about 7000 to 23,000 t (anchovy). Acoustic estimates are largely consistent with landings recorded in Sciacca (the main fishing port for small pelagic species in the study area) during the year following the evaluation surveys. In addition, trends in sardine and anchovy biomass estimates appears to be negatively correlated with the mean sea surface temperature calculated over the time intervals January–September (sardine) and June–November (anchovy) of the preceding year, which correspond to larval and juvenile growth periods of target species. Observed patterns would suggest the importance of enrichment processes relevant to the survival of early stages, so determining recruitment success and finally higher population sizes.     

基于分解模型与VEC模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境时空关系研究

选择GDP、工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业废物产生量4个指标,从横向的空间作用关系及纵向的时间作用关系对沈阳经济区经济增长与环境演化关系进行了动态综合分析.对于空间作用关系,采用完全分解模型,利用沈阳经济区内8个城市的面板数据,将经济与环境关系分解为经济规模效应、空间结构效应和技术效应,判定了由于经济增长造成的工业废物排放的增减变化而带来的区域环境压力扰动程度.对于时间作用关系,选择协整与向量误差修正模型(VEC),依次对指标序列进行了单位根检验、VAR估计、Johansen协整检验及向量自回归的VEC修正,进而对沈阳经济区经济与环境指标前期与当期作用关系进行了长期修正与短期校正.结果表明:对于工业废物排放,技术效应发挥了最突出的减量作用,经济效应的增量效应凸显,而空间结构效应的作用不明显;GDP与工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业废物产生量之间的作用关系均经历了由波动到平稳的过程,但在研究期内GDP与工业废水排放之间的稳定性相对较弱,保持GDP与工业废气排放、工业废物产生各自的均衡关系,对各变量的优化有促进作用,而保持GDP与工业废水排放的均衡关系,则对各变量的优化有抑制作用.     

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.