Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in China induced by greenhouse effect

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.     

全球环境变化与全球不平等南北方的不同立场

全球环境变化给发展中国家和南北关系带来深刻影响，理解环境问题的全球不平等需要以发展中国家80年代开始的经济结构调整和沉重债务为背景。南方的环境政策优先在很大程度上与其生活的可持续性相连，而不是通常与全球环境变化的长期性风险相关，然而，全球环境变化又与发展中国家贫困人口的日常生活紧密相关。从南方的立场看，当“问题”对他们不十分迫切时，就很难同意采取措施，仅此原因，北方对全球环境变化的关切要得到成功回应，真正的全球契约就需要解决基本“发展”问题，主要是贫困。     

沼气增温与控制系统的设计与仿真

冬季北方寒冷地区温度偏低,难以满足大中型沼气厌氧发酵系统对于温度的要求。为了解决该问题,针对天津地区某奶牛场沼气工程,设计了一套回收发电机余热并辅助电加热为发酵罐体供热的沼气增温控制系统,且实验确定最佳控制温度为35℃。在该系统中,罐体内部均匀布置竖直型循环加热管路,从而使料液温度分布更加均匀,热响应更加迅速,6 d左右即可将发酵罐内发酵料液提升到所需最佳温度;另外,采用罐内部温度及循环水流量的反馈调节,使料液的温度波动维持在±1℃范围内,解决了在冬季由于温度过低而导致沼气产气率偏低、甚至停滞的问题;同时,采用MATLAB软件对基于F-PID及传统PID的温度控制系统进行了仿真。对比结果表明,F-PID控制器较传统PID控制器超调量减小3℃,响应时间缩短60%,表明F-PID系统具有更高的效率、稳定性及实用价值。     

近45年中国12个一级站大气气溶胶光学厚度变化特征

利用常规观测的总辐射和散射辐射日曝辐量资料,结合NASA GISS的月平均平流层气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品,反演计算了北京等12个台站1961～2005年0.75μm对流层AOD和气溶胶标高数据.基于这些数据,分析了各站AOD、气溶胶标高和地面能见度的年、季、月变化特征.结果表明:①就12个站45a总平均而言,光学厚度为0.276,年增长为0.0034;气溶胶标高为1.65km,年增加为0.015km;能见度为17.1km,年变化值为-0.08km;AOD春夏较大,秋冬较小;气溶胶标高夏季最高,春季次之,冬季最低.②各站点45a平均AOD范围为0.116～0.387;除格尔木外,各站AOD均有增长.年变化值为0.0010～0.0079.③20世纪70、80年代AOD增加明显;20世纪90年代以来,多数站点AOD有所下降,能见度有转好趋势.     

解决全球变暖问题,发达国家与发展中国家的分歧

本文论述了全球变暖对经济发展的影响。论述了在联合国气候变化峰会上,发达国家与发展中国家发生严重分歧。说明了我国坚持共同但有区别的责任原则,实现互利共赢,促进共同发展。会议无果而终。     

Prediction of future disposal of end-of-life refrigerators containing CFC-11

The objective of this study was to predict the number of refrigerators containing CFC-11 blown isolation foam and the amount of CFC-11 banked in these refrigerators. By using a Weibull-based survival function, the number of CFC-11 containing and still-functioning refrigerators was estimated to be approximately 1.6 million in 2013 in Turkey. In order to determine the amount of CFC-11 in the isolation foam of these refrigerators, polyurethane (PU) foam samples were taken from a refrigerator manufactured in 1993 and the quantity of CFC-11 was analyzed by a GC-MS. It was determined that 113–195 mg CFC-11/g PU remains in the PU foam depending on the location such as door, sides, top and bottom. Knowing that a mid-sized refrigerator contains 4 kg PU on average, the total amount of PU foam to be disposed of is 6344 tons when the CFC-11 containing refrigerators in Turkey become obsolete in the near future. Furthermore, 717–1237 tons of CFC-11 are expected to be banked in the PU foam of these refrigerators which will exert an equivalent amount of ozone depleting potential (ODP). In addition, the global warming potential will vary between 3.4 and 5.9 million tons of CO₂.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

技术进步路径选择与中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度

本文采用考虑反馈性出口隐含碳的MRIO模型,测算了2000—2011年中国14个制造业行业出口隐含碳排放强度;在此基础上,基于全球价值链(GVC)分工地位的视角,理论分析并实证检验了不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新显著降低了中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度,而国外技术引进和外商直接投资(FDI)对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响不显著;提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位能够显著降低其出口隐含碳排放强度。进一步研究发现,不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的作用效果受到制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位的影响,并表现出明显的门槛特征,即只有中国制造业在GVC中的分工地位越过门槛值后,技术进步路径才能显著降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度。此外,将制造业分为知识密集型、资本密集型和劳动密集型三类,发现不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度还存在着显著的行业差异。因此,中国制造业应充分发挥中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新在降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度中的作用,在引进FDI和国外技术的过程中,优先考虑引进发达国家的先进低碳制造技术和清洁生产技术。同时,中国制造业还应积极培育自身竞争优势,构建自我主导的国内价值链和区域价值链体系,主动嵌入全球创新链,提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位。此外,政府应根据技术创新和引进政策在不同制造业行业中的执行效果,有所侧重地制定和实施相关政策。     

Long-Term Changes in the Fauna of Diurnal Lepidopterans (Lepidoptera,Diurna) in the Northern Taiga Subzone of the Western Russian Plain

In the diurnal lepidopteran fauna of the northern taiga subzone in the western Russian Plain, the species inhabiting primary biotopic complexes typical of this subzone currently account for slightly more than 60% of the total species richness and abundance. A large part of the fauna is represented by the species of more southern origin, whose expansion to the northern taiga was caused by anthropogenic transformation of landscapes between the 12th and 20th centuries and recent climate warming.     

Global Trend of Low-carbon Economy and China's Responses

Based on the analysis on the global economic crisis,climate change crisis and their mutual underlying reasons,the authors believe that low-carbon economy has become an inevitable choice to break through the dual crises,coordinate the economic development,and protect the global climate.The global trend of low-carbon economy finds expression in Green Recovery currently,while,in a long run,it will give rise to a new pattern of world competition in politics,economy,technology,trade and finance.The impact of the...