Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

A Spatial Model to Estimate Habitat Fragmentation and Its Consequences on Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

The increasing use of the landscape by humans has led to important diminutions of natural surfaces. The remaining patches of wild habitat are small and isolated from each other among a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation, by disabling population movements and stopping their spread to new habitats, is a major threat to the survival of numerous plant and animal species. We developed a general model, adaptable for specific species, capable of identifying suitable habitat patches within fragmented landscapes and investigating the capacity of populations to move between these patches. This approach combines GIS analysis of a landscape, with spatial dynamic modeling. Suitable habitat is identified using a threshold area to perimeter ratio. Potential movement pathways of species between habitat patches are modeled using a cellular automaton. Habitat connectivity is estimated by overlaying habitat patches with movement pathways. The maximum potential population is calculated within and between connected habitat patches and potential risk of inbreeding within meta-populations is considered. The model was tested on a sample map and applied to scenario maps of predicted land-use change in the Peoria Tri-county region (IL). It (1) showed area of natural area alone was insufficient to estimate the consequences on animal populations; (2) underscored the necessity to use approaches investigating the effect of land-use change spatially through the landscape and the importance of considering species-specific life history characteristics; and (3) highlighted the model's potential utility as an indicator of species likelihood to be affected negatively by land-use scenarios and therefore requiring detailed investigation.     

取代苯胺和苯酚类化合物对大型■(Daphnia magna Straus)的定量结构-活性关系研究

研究了３６个取代苯胺和苯酚类化合物对大型的急性毒性，应用正辛醇／水分配系数、线性溶解能关系参数和分子连接性指数得出了该类化合物的定量构效关系方程，这些方程可以用来进行该类化合物危害性初评．ＬＳＥＲ法得到的ＱＳＡＲ方程拟合效果较好，增大分子体积及偶极性极化性，均可增大毒性．化合物与蛋白质等生物大分子的氢键键合作用是导致该类化合物毒性高于其基本毒性的原因．     

取代苯甲酸在天然河流中的生物降解及其定量结构--生物降解性相关研究

以天然河流水作为微生物源 ,采用碘量法测定了 2 0种苯甲酸类化合物的 5日生化需氧量 ,并以其占理论需氧量的百分数作为表征生物降解性的参数 ,得出各类取代苯甲酸类化合物的生物降解能力为 :羟基 >氨基 >羧基 >甲氧基 >氯基 >硝基 ;对于同一种取代基 ,对位取代基化合物生物降解能力最大 ,而邻位、间位取代基化合物生物降解能力大体相同。计算了苯甲酸类化合物的分子连接性指数 ,并以 5日生化需氧量占理论需氧量的百分数为参数建立了 QSBR模型。分析结果表明 ,分子连接性指数5Xvpc、5Xp- 5Xvp 能较好地反映取代苯甲酸的生物降解性     

苯的衍生物在活性炭/水界面上的吸附标准自由能及与其分子结构的关系

测定了25℃时活性炭自水中吸附苯、苯酚、苯胺、对－氯苯酚、苯甲酸、对－羟基苯甲酸、对－氯苯胺、硝基苯、对－氨基苯甲酸、对－硝式苯酚、对－硝基苯胺、对硝基苯甲酸的等温线，它们的等温线均为Langmuir型的，利用Langmuir参数计算了吸吸标准自由能变化△G^0，计算结果表明，△G^0具有加和性，即化合物的△G^0是组成该化合物各基团贡献之总和，化合物的分子量及分子连接性指数与△G^0有近似的线性关系。     

GIS支持下的水文生态效应评价混合型专家系统设计初探

文章从人工神经网络(ANN)、专家系统(ES)各自的优势和不足出发，结合地理信息系统(GIS)技术的特点，介绍了水文生态效应评价的混合型专家系统(HEMES)的基本结构模式和各模块的功能。然后抓住ANN、ES、GIS的共同作用因子一专家知识，从数据库结构、C 类方面探讨了三者集成的问题，并根据集成的思想探讨了相关功能设计。指出HEMES是一种更准确、易操作的评价技术，可作为相关管理、决策者的辅助工具。     

NUTRIENT LOADING ASSESSMENT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER USING A SYNTHETIC APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border.     

A THEORETICAL TRAVEL TIME BASED ON WATERSHED HYPSOMETRY1

ABSTRACT: The time to hydrograph peak of a watershed basin has been found to correlate with various statistical attributes (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) of its hypsometric curve (treated as probability distribution). This paper presents a theoretical travel time that is conceptually analogous to the time to hydrograph peak and can be calculated directly from the hypsometric curve of a watershed basin based on gravity and acceleration. The theoretical travel times for 23 selected watersheds in the United States are found to correlate significantly with their corresponding hypsometric attributes. In addition, the theoretical travel times are consistent with the times of concentration estimated from the Federal Aviation Administration method. Thus, this paper offers a simple theoretical explanation to the empirically identified linkage between time to hydrograph peak and hypsometric attributes. This theoretical travel time can provide an alternative way of characterizing the effects of basin morphometry on hydrologic response.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.