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1.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
2.
Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut. 相似文献
3.
Seong J. Kim Hyo S. Chae Chul S. Yoo Sa C. Shin 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(5):1143-1155
ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km2 watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R2 of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed. 相似文献
4.
简要叙述了常用的信号处理系统的类型与处理机结构,介绍了正逐步得到广泛应用的DSP+FPGA处理机结构,在此基础上提出了一种实时信号处理的线性流水阵列,并举例说明了该结构的具体实现,最后分析说明了此结构的优越性。 相似文献
5.
洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算. 相似文献
6.
结构面对隧道围岩变形及稳定性起着决定性作用。运用三维离散元方法(3DEC)研究结构面分布特征,重点是结构面线密度1/λ、强度和倾角对隧道围岩变形的影响,总结了结构面分布与围岩变形特征的关系。结果表明,在结构面强度较低的情况下,结构面线密度对隧道变形的影响较大,其影响可分为两种情况:①λ≤0.2时,围岩的弯曲变形大于沿结构面的剪切变形,属于应力型大变形;②0.2<λ≤0.4时,沿结构面的剪切变形大于围岩的弯曲变形,属于结构型大变形。结构面倾角主要影响围岩大变形发生的位置。将数值模拟结果与国内工程实例实测变形资料相对比,发现一致性较好。本研究结果对隧道支护结构的设计以及施工设计具有借鉴意义与指导作用。 相似文献
7.
8.
金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过对金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式的研究,得到以下结论:(1)在不同空间位置的矿物元素对河水的水质贡献率不相同。河水成分贡献主要来源于硅酸盐风化,在金水河流域生态系统不同空间位置矿物元素对河水水质贡献率方程为:YRiverwater=0.242+0.203 XRain+0172 XLitter+0.471 XSoilwater(r2=0.55)。(2)固-液相界面(土壤-土壤水溶液)离子交换过程拟合表明:离子交换过程符合二、三次曲线模型。(3)区域内碳酸盐岩含较少的Na+和K+,且受酸雨等影响。Na+在土壤-土壤溶液之间的分配行为可能加重土壤盐碱化的趋势。土壤和枯枝落叶层HCO3-和TDS值均处于稳定的范围内。(4)输入性污染分析表明,流域内土壤基本表现出物理性质改善;但却表现出贫养化和生物地球化学性质恶化的极化趋势。人为活动输入污染物影响显著,在全球变化背景下,酸雨和干旱加剧了水溶液组成的变化。 相似文献
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10.