Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

Prenatal screening and diagnosis of neural tube defects in England and Wales in 1985

A survey was carried out to determine the effect of prenatal screening and therapeutic abortion on births in 1985 with anencephaly and spina bifida in England and Wales. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein tests were done on 399 288 women (60 per cent of pregnant women): 4 per cent were reported as being screen-positive and 1 per cent had an amniocentesis. An estimated 534 pregnancies associated with anencephaly were terminated and an estimated 445 pregnancies associated with spina bifida (but without anencephaly) were terminated. Most (63 per cent) of the anencephalic pregnancies were first suspected from an ultrasound examination; 57 per cent of the spina bifida pregnancies were first suspected from a positive maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein test, 35 per cent by ultrasound, and the remaining 8 per cent by other means. The birth prevalence of anencephaly declined by 94 per cent between 1964–1972 and 1985, but when the terminations of pregnancy on account of having a fetus with anencephaly are added to the births the decline in prevalence was only 50 per cent. The birth prevalence of spina bifida declined by 68 per cent over the same period but when the terminations were added to the births the decline in prevalence was only 32 per cent. Among births with anencephaly 66 per cent had had no screening or diagnostic tests in early pregnancy, but in those that did nearly all were positive–usually in twin pregnancies where one fetus was affected but not the other. Among births with spina bifida, 48 per cent had no tests and in those that did the results were mainly negative. We conclude that in order to monitor adequately the national screening programme for anencephaly and spina bifida a special neural tube defects register should be formed.     

Effects of mid-trimester induced abortion on the subsequent pregnancy

The outcome of the pregnancy following (a) a mid-trimester termination of pregnancy (TOP) for fetal neural tube defect (NTD) (77 women=group 1); (b) mid-trimester TOP for fetal Down's syndrome (13 women=group 2); (c) delivery of a baby with NTD (119 women=group 3) was studied. The prenatal fetal loss was relatively high in all groups. In group 1 it was similar to that found in other studies after first trimester TOP, in group 2 it was associated with advanced maternal age and the unexpected finding in group 3 was not attributable to advanced maternal age. It is suggested that a previous NTD per se might increase the risk of fetal loss in the next pregnancy. A previous mid-trimester TOP for NTD was not associated with an increase in premature labour, small for dates babies or congenital abnormality in the next pregnancy, but there was a slight increase in the number of babies weighing less than 2500 g.     

“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。     

Tracking the prevalence of rollover protective structures on U.S. farm tractors: 1993, 2001, and 2004

Problem

Between 1992 and 2005, 1412 workers on farms died from tractor overturns. A Rollover Protective Structure (ROPS) is a proven intervention to reduce overturn deaths. However, farm characteristics that are associated with the adoption of ROPS are not well understood.

Methods

ROPS prevalence statistics were derived from National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) surveys that tracked ROPS use on farms. Data were from the years 1993, 2001, and 2004.

Results

In 1993, 38% of tractors were equipped with ROPS. This increased to 51% by 2004. ROPS prevalence rates were higher on farms in the Southern region of the United States, on farms where the operator was 25-34 years old, and on farms with $100,000 or more of farm sales. Low ROPS prevalence rates were associated with farm operators 65 years old or older and with farms with less than $10,000 of farm product sales.

Summary

The increase in ROPS prevalence between 1993 and 2004 has not been sufficient to decrease the rate of tractor overturn deaths on farms. Incentive programs targeting older farm operators and low-income farm operations are suggested to increase ROPS use on tractors.

Impact on Industry

The study provides farm characteristics associated with low ROPS prevalence rates. The results can be used to target farms for future ROPS promotion activities.     

建筑行业发展与低碳生活的推广探讨

低碳生活是一种自然地节约各种资源的习惯,是一种生活习惯。气候变化是本世纪最严重的全球问题之一,不断推进低碳生活是减少人类生活对气候影响的重要途径。低碳生活推广后,消费者对建筑的规划、环境影响以及节能等关注将增加,进而影响建筑行业的发展。在分析低碳生活对建筑影响的基础上,提出了包括人才培养、政策支持和扩大宣传的多级支持发展建议。     

Using Twitter to communicate conservation science from a professional conference

Scientists are increasingly using Twitter as a tool for communicating science. Twitter can promote scholarly discussion, disseminate research rapidly, and extend and diversify the scope of audiences reached. However, scientists also caution that if Twitter does not accurately convey science due to the inherent brevity of this media, misinformation could cascade quickly through social media. Data on whether Twitter effectively communicates conservation science and the types of user groups receiving these tweets are lacking. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined live tweeting as a means of communicating conservation science at the 2013 International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB). We quantified and compared the user groups sending and reading live tweets. We also surveyed presenters to determine their intended audiences, which we compared with the actual audiences reached through live tweeting. We also asked presenters how effectively tweets conveyed their research findings. Twitter reached 14 more professional audience categories relative to those attending and live tweeting at ICCB. However, the groups often reached through live tweeting were not the presenters’ intended audiences. Policy makers and government and non‐governmental organizations were rarely reached (0%, 4%, and 6% of audience, respectively), despite the intent of the presenters. Plenary talks were tweeted about 6.9 times more than all other oral or poster presentations combined. Over half the presenters believed the tweets about their talks were effective. Ineffective tweets were perceived as vague or missing the presenters’ main message. We recommend that presenters who want their science to be communicated accurately and broadly through Twitter should provide Twitter‐friendly summaries that incorporate relevant hashtags and usernames. Our results suggest that Twitter can be used to effectively communicate speakers’ findings to diverse audiences beyond conference walls.