杭州湾北岸36种挥发性有机物污染特征及来源解析

为研究杭州湾北岸VOCs（挥发性有机物）的浓度水平、组成特征、反应活性和潜在来源,采用GC-FID在线监测系统对杭州湾北岸环境大气中的36种VOCs开展了为期1 a（2017年12月-2018年11月）的连续观测,采用LOH（VOCs的·OH消耗速率）和OFP（O₃生成潜势）2种方法估算了大气VOCs的反应活性,并利用PMF（正定矩阵因子分解）和CPF（条件概率函数）模型分析其来源.结果表明:①φ（VOCs）小时平均值在冬季（26.47×10-9）最高,夏季（9.76×10-9）最低;全年φ（VOCs）小时平均值为21.24×10-9,其中烷烃、烯烃+炔烃、芳香烃、卤代烃的贡献率分别为33.24%、34.13%、15.63%、17.00%;φ（烷烃）、φ（芳香烃）和φ（卤代烃）呈较明显的昼夜变化特征,φ（烯烃）和φ（炔烃）无明显昼夜变化趋势.②大气VOCs的总LOH和OFP分别为9.39 s-1和220.57 μg/m3,KOH（·OH反应速率常数）和MIR（最大增量反应活性）系数的平均值分别为17.34×10-12 cm3/（molecule·s）和3.31;KOH和MIR系数的平均值分别与间/对-二甲苯的KOH和乙苯的MIR系数接近,表明大气VOCs的化学反应活性较强;VOCs关键活性物种为异戊二烯、乙烯、丙烯、甲苯、二甲苯和顺-2-丁烯.③特征物种相关性分析表明,杭州湾北岸大气存在老化现象,异戊烷和正戊烷受煤燃烧源影响较大,二甲苯和乙苯受溶剂排放源影响较大,甲苯和苯除受机动车尾气影响外,还受其他排放源影响.④PMF和CPF模型来源分析表明,大气VOCs主要来自石化工业源、燃料挥发源、生物质燃烧和煤燃烧源、机动车排放源和溶剂使用源,其中,机动车排放源主要来自西北方向,其他源主要来自西北、西和西南方向.研究显示,杭州湾北岸大气VOCs来源复杂,受周边工业区的影响较大.      

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Monitoring of Butter and Ghee (Clarified Butter Fat) for Pesticidal Contamination from Cotton Belt of Haryana, India

Butter (45) and ghee (55) samples were collected from rural and urban areas of cotton growing belt of Haryana and analysed for detecting the residues of organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. The estimation was carried out by using multi residue analytical technique employing GC-ECD and GC-NPD systems equipped with capillary columns. Butter samples were comparatively more contaminated (97%) than ghee (94%), showing more contamination with organochlorine insecticides from urban samples. About 11% samples of butter showed endosulfan residues above MRL value and 2% samples had residues of synthetic pyrethroids and organophosphates each above their respective MRL values. In ghee, residues of HCH & DDT both and of endosulfan exceeded the MRL values in 5 and 20% samples, respectively. Among organophosphates, only chlorpyriphos was detected with 9% samples showing its residue above MRL value. Irrespective of contamination levels, residues above the MRL values were more in ghee. More extensive study covering other agricultural regions/zones of Haryana has been suggested to know the overall scenario of contamination of milk products.     

Monitoring of Seasonal Vegetables for Pesticide Residues

Market samples (60) of six seasonal vegetables were monitoredduring 1996–1997 to determine the magnitude of pesticidalcontamination. The estimation of insecticide residuesrepresenting four major chemical groups i.e. organochlorine,organophosphorous, synthetic pyrethroid and carbamate, was doneby adopting a multiresidue analytical technique employingGC-ECD and GC-NPD systems with capillary columns. The testedsamples showed 100% contamination with low but measurableamounts of residues. Among the four chemical groups, theorganophosphates were dominant followed by organochlorines,synthetic pyrethroids and carbamates. About 23% of the samplesshowed contamination with organophosphorous compounds abovetheir respective MRL values. More extensive studies coveringdifferent regions of Haryana state are suggested to get a clearidea of the magnitude of vegetable contamination with pesticideresidues.     

多级模糊模式识别方法用于湖泊水质评价

进行模糊综合评估的应用与研究很多，在那些方法中主要应用最大隶属度原则进行最后的评定，但是湖泊水质评价涉及到多样点多项指标等多因素，一般模糊综合评价方法中的最大隶属度原则不能适用。本文利用多级模糊模式识别方法的基本理论，通过多目标优选，给出了更加合理、科学的评价模型；利用该模型我们对武汉市东湖水质监测结果做出了较为合理的评价。     

开式冷挤压成形深小锥孔件时极限变形程度的理论研究

给出了深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形时极限变形程度的定义,建立了变形区非稳态连续速度场;利用上限原理得到了极限变形程度的理论判据。分析了各主要参数对极限变形程度的影响规律,对指导制定深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形工艺具有重要意义。     

芳香化合物的光催化-臭氧联用降解研究

研究了几种芳香化合物的光催化 臭氧联用降解。探讨了光催化 臭氧联用技术降解有机物作用机理,分析了芳香化合物结构与反应活性的关系。实验结果表明,光催化 臭氧联用对芳香化合物的降解都存在一定的协同效应,而且符合表观准一级反应动力学规律;203#膜光催化臭氧的作用机理是催化臭氧产生了更多的高活性氧化剂,芳香化合物结构对其光催化 臭氧联用降解活性有很大影响。     

ENHANCING FECAL COLIFORM TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOAD MODELS THROUGH BACTERIAL SOURCE TRACKING1

ABSTRACT: Surface water impairment by fecal coliform bacteria is a water quality issue of national scope and importance. In Virginia, more than 400 stream and river segments are on the Commonwealth's 2002 303(d) list because of fecal coliform impairment. Total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) will be developed for most of these listed streams and rivers. Information regarding the major fecal coliform sources that impair surface water quality would enhance the development of effective watershed models and improve TMDLs. Bacterial source tracking (BST) is a recently developed technology for identifying the sources of fecal coliform bacteria and it may be helpful in generating improved TMDLs. Bacterial source tracking was performed, watershed models were developed, and TMDLs were prepared for three streams (Accotink Creek, Christians Creek, and Blacks Run) on Virginia's 303(d) list of impaired waters. Quality assurance of the BST work suggests that these data adequately describe the bacteria sources that are impairing these streams. Initial comparison of simulated bacterial sources with the observed BST data indicated that the fecal coliform sources were represented inaccurately in the initial model simulation. Revised model simulations (based on BST data) appeared to provide a better representation of the sources of fecal coliform bacteria in these three streams. The coupled approach of incorporating BST data into the fecal coliform transport model appears to reduce model uncertainty and should result in an improved TMDL.     

Assessment of the maximum allowed acid deposition load at current stage in China

Soil acidification caused by acid deposition has been significant in some forests in southern China. We present an approach for assessing the current stage maximum allowed load (SML) of acid deposition for terrestrial system in the country. The main idea was that soil base cation exchange as a finite buffer to acidity was included in the soil acidity mass balance calculation at current acidification stage. We calculated the SML for five forests in southern China. The usual critical loads for the same forests were also calculated by the steady state mass balance model for comparison. The results showed that the SML is a more tolerant limit than the critical load for the forests with soils not acidified seriously at current stage. However, the SML become a more stringent limit to acid deposition when the forest soils have acidified seriously to very low base cation saturation. In this case the SML assessment is beneficial for the soils recovering from a serious acidified state. Based on a national scale database, the SML mapping for non-agricultural soil system in China was carried out.