Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

船舶排放及不确定性对中国空气质量的影响

船舶排放是我国沿海地区重要的人为排放源,但现有的船舶排放评估研究大多只关注区域尺度的影响分析,而且忽视了排放清单的不确定性,这在一定程度上削弱了评估结果的可靠性.为此,本文利用WRF-SMOKE-CAMQ空气质量模型,定量评估了船舶排放及其不确定性对我国七大沿海港口城市夏季空气质量的影响,结果表明：船舶排放对我国主要沿海港口城市的SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5浓度贡献范围分别为16.5%~62.5%、21.9%~72.9%和5.9%~26.0%,尤其对宁波、青岛和深圳等港口城市空气质量的影响显著,主要是由于港口较高的船舶排放以及气象传输两方面原因造成的;如果考虑船舶排放清单的总量不确定性,船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.0~3.1,2.1~5.5,0.3~0.9μg/m³的波动;考虑船舶排放清单的时空分配不确定性,船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.9~15.7,5.1~29.3,0.6~2.5μg/m³的波动.可见,船舶排放清单的不确定性对沿海城市船舶排放贡献影响量化有明显的影响.所以在评估船舶排放对港口城市空气质量的影响时,要考虑船舶排放清单的不确定性,尤其是时空分配的不确定性.而合理的时空分配能够提高船舶排放清单的质量和对沿海空气质量模拟的准确性.     

考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

微波消解-ICP-OES联合测AZ61镁合金中Zn、Mn、Al的不确定度分析

目的研究AZ61镁合金中合金元素成分分析过程中的不确定度因素,以提高分析结果的准确性。方法采用微波消解仪消解样品,以电感耦合等离子体发射光谱仪(ICP-OES)测定AZ61镁合金中锌、锰、铝元素的含量。分析测试过程中产生不确定度的因素,并且进行评定和计算。结果采用微波消解-ICP-OES法测定镁合金中锌、锰、铝元素的含量时,测量不确定度主要由样品溶液稀释、移液枪、标准曲线以及测试的重复性引起,AZ61镁合金主要的合金成分为锌(1.1270%±0.0433%)、锰(0.1797%±0.0064%);铝(6.4468%±0.2029%)。结论对分析过程中产生的不确定度因素进行分析及评定,可以确保分析结果的可靠性以及准确性,从而更好地控制镁合金的性能,提高镁合金的装备环境适应性。     

Development of monitoring technology for airborne particulate matter

Particulate matter suspended in the air has adverse effects onhuman health. Its level of concentration is an important parameter in evaluating the degree of hazard it poses to the atmosphere. Conventional methods used in measuring particulatematter are often filter-based, which indicates some disadvantagesbecause such a base requires labor and time. In this study, to achieve real-time measurements, a new electrical method was developed for measuring PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. The basicprinciple is to electrically charge particles passing through thePM inlet using a corona charger and measure the currents createdby charged particles to obtain the number concentration of particulate matter. A new type inlet based on the particle cupimpactor configuration was designed and its performance was evaluated. A unipolar diffusion charger was developed and thecharger's efficiency was determined experimentally in terms ofPn, which represents the penetration through the charger,P, times the average charge number acquired by a particle,n, for different particle sizes. The correlation was constructed between the PM10 (or the PM2.5) mass concentrationsand the electrical currents due to particles, which were chargedby the diffusion charger.     

evaluation of a measurement method for forest vegetation in a large-scale ecological survey

We evaluate a field method for determining species richness andcanopy cover of vascular plants for the Forest Health MonitoringProgram (FHM), an ecological survey of U.S. forests. Measurementsare taken within 12 1-m² quadrats on 1/15 ha plots in FHM.Species richness and cover are determined for four height classes(strata) within each quadrat and aggregated by stratum over the entireplot. We estimated (1) the agreement between experienced trainers andinexperienced technicians who collected the data on this survey(accuracy) and (2) the agreement among the technicians (precision) forresults on species richness and cover from 3 test plots at 3 timeintervals. The methods appear to be highly precise, although somediscrepancies with the values obtained by the trainers were found.Trainers found significantly more species in the ground stratum (0–0.6 m) and measured significantly more cover in the uppermost stratum(>4.9 m). The proportion of variation due to measurement error andtemporal variability was less than 13% for species richness (all strata)and cover (all but one stratum). This indicates that the method issuitable for monitoring changes in species richness and canopy coverfor a large-scale synoptic monitoring project such as FHM.     

丙烯腈含量的测定改进

总结了常用测定丙烯腈原料含量方法存在的不足，提出了以１００减去水分和有机杂质的方法来确定丙烯腈含量。并对瓣老测定方法进行对比验证，结果表明，改进的方法操作简单，数据准确，可行。     

用S型皮托管测固定污染源排气参数的方法探讨

针对固定污染源排气监测实际工作用S型皮托管测定静压方法有争议的问题进行了理论分析和低速风洞试验。结果表明,用S型皮托管测固定污染源排气静压的平行法和垂直法二方法都在不影响排气量和污染物排放量测定结果的范围内;用全压与平行法静压差作为动压来计算流速可影响较大。     

中国华北地区冬季大气污染物航空测量(Ⅰ)——空中气态污染物污染特征研究

为掌握致酸大气污染物ＳＯ２ 和ＮＯｘ 的空间浓度分布，并探讨上述污染物扩散、迁移和传输规律，进而研究其在酸性降水形成过程中的作用，在“八五”期间酸性降水的研究中，针对中国华北地区城市和工业集中以及ＳＯ２ 和ＮＯｘ 等酸性大气污染物排放量大的特点，以石家庄及其以东地区为飞行区域，进行了华北地区冬季空中ＳＯ２ 和ＮＯｘ 污染特征的航空测量。通过测定发现在华北地区１－５ ｋｍ 左右的空中存在着ＳＯ２ 和ＮＯｘ 高浓度污染空域，同时ＳＯ２ 存在着高浓度汇集区