SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

湖北省2008年初低温雨雪冰冻过程气候特征分析

2008年初，湖北省出现了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害，直接经济损失高达110亿元以上，有必要对灾害期间的气候特征进行系统、科学的分析和总结。对湖北省76个气象站2008年1月12日～2月3日气温、降水（雪）、日照以及低温持续日数等要素进行时空间差异分析及历史与同期比较，并选取10个代表站历史上所有低温雨雪天气过程，对其过程持续低温日数、最长连续雨雪日数、过程极端低温进行比较分析。结果表明：（1）此次过程的平均气温异常偏低，该省大部为-1～-2℃，比常年同期偏低4～6℃，为各站历史同期最低，其中主要是最高气温异常偏低所致，但极端低温并不低；（2）降雪过程频繁，雨雪量异常偏多；（3）低温冰冻持续时间长，该省大部在16～22 d，位于历史第一；（4）日照异常偏少。持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势是湖北省大范围低温雨雪天气的直接原因。     

Selecting Socio-Economic Metrics for Watershed Management

The selection of social and economic metrics to document baseline conditions and analyze the dynamic relationships between ecosystems and human communities are important decisions for scientists, managers, and watershed citizens. A large variety of social and economic data is available but these have limited use without theoretical frameworks. In this paper, several frameworks for reviewing social-ecosystem relations are offered, namely social sanctions, sense of place, civic structure, and cultural differences. Underlying all of these frameworks are attitudes, beliefs, values, and norms that affect which questions are asked and which indicators are chosen. Much work and significant challenges remain in developing a standard set of spatially based socio-economic metrics for watershed management.     

环境价值的循环模式初探

环境污染对环境产生的负价值与环境保护对环境产生的正价值相互作用、相互抵消的运动过程，体现了环境整体价值在人类经济社会活动影响下的具体演化模式。文章探讨了环境价值的循环途径、环境资源价值的模型，并对模型进行了具体分析，以期帮助人们提高对环境价值的认识。     

不同曝气位点对微氧强化硫酸盐还原-反硝化脱硫效果及群落结构的影响

微氧强化硫酸盐还原-反硝化脱硫(SR-DSR)工艺因具有同步处理废水中COD、NO~-_3、SO■生成S~0且运行成本低、流程短的优势而受到关注.但因不同曝气方式而在反应器中形成的不同微氧区的位置对反应器运行效能、S~0转化率和群落结构的影响尚不明确.因此,本文以5 mL·min~(-1)·L~(-1)曝气速率、10.4 mmol·L~(-1)硫酸钠、31 mmol·L~(-1)乳酸钠和8 mmol·L~(-1)硝酸钾连续运行膨胀颗粒污泥床(EGSB)反应器,对比研究了回流槽中(底部)曝气(微氧区位于反应器下部)和反应区上部曝气(微氧区分别位于反应器上部和下部但DO更低)运行稳定后,反应器的运行效能、S~0转化率和功能微生物的演替规律.结果表明,上部曝气时乳酸盐去除率为100%,出水中乙酸盐浓度为9.1 mmol·L~(-1),丙酸盐浓度为3.7 mmol·L~(-1),NO~-_3去除率为100%,出水中NO~-_2浓度为0.35 mmol·L~(-1),SO■去除率为84%,出水中S~(2-)浓度为2.6 mmol·L~(-1),S~0转化率为59%.与底部曝气相比,上部曝气时出水中乙酸盐和丙酸盐浓度分别升高2.2和1.9 mmol·L~(-1),NO~-_2浓度下降0.15 mmol·L~(-1),S~(2-)浓度降低0.5 mmol·L~(-1),SO■去除率和S~0转化率分别下降6%和1%.上部曝气时,反应器下部和上部均存在相对减弱的微氧环境,使得反应器中硫酸盐还原菌(SRB)Desulfomicrobium和Desulfobulbus的总丰度分别增加9%和5%,硫氧化反硝化菌(soNRB)Halothiobacillaceae和Sulfurovum的丰度均减小3.1%,异养反硝化菌(hNRB)Comamonas的丰度升高0.2%,互营菌Synergistaceae的丰度减少37%.其中,反应器下部的SRB和soNRB总丰度分别升高28%和3%,为SO■还原和S~0转化提供了充分条件,而反应器上部的微氧环境又减弱了SO■还原过程,从而降低了反应器出水中的S~(2-).因此,在碳源充足的条件下,可以采取反应器上部曝气的方式创造微氧环境,既可以保证较高的S~0转化率,又可以减少出水中S~(2-)和NO~-_2的浓度.     

湿式氧化技术处理炼油厂碱渣废水

考察了湿式氧化法处理运行过程 ,以及相关参数的控制方案。在实现装置出水、废气达标排放的前提下 ,稳定控制装置运行是可以实现的。如后续有酸化除酚工艺和SBR工艺进行再处理 ,则应选用温度 (14 5± 5 )℃ ,压力控制在 0 6～ 0 .7MPa的湿式氧化法     

Specific Contributions of Politics,Economics, and Toxicology in Setting Socially Consensual Limit Values

/ Limit values are legal limits for the concentrations of substances in the environment. They must be agreed upon in a consensual procedure between science, economics/technology, and political forces. This is a crucial political precondition for their social acceptance. The arguments put forward to justify their expediency and numerical level are based not only on risk-benefit considerations but also on the aspect of the technical avoidability of direct and indirect exposure. The critical assessment of the direct benefit of specified exposures falls within the responsibility of economics/technology, whereas criteria for their potential adverse effects (direct and indirect) are provided by medicine/biochemistry and/or ecology. Within this concept, the avoidance of nonbeneficial-even if not openly adverse-exposure is the essential aim of environmental hygiene and should be promoted by politics/science. In general, society or segments thereof reject adverse, accept beneficial, and tolerate unavoidable exposure. Conflicts of interest arise when different groups of society simultaneously define a given exposure as being adverse, beneficial, and unavoidable. Therefore, from the viewpoint of society as a whole, an optimal exposure lies as far as reasonably achievable at a level lower than known or plausible adverse effect thresholds (as defined by toxicology or ecology). This optimal level of exposure must be determined using a transparent and, hence, public procedure.KEY WORDS: Legal limit values; Benefit threshold; Social acceptance; Social tolerability; Adverse effect threshold; Avoidable exposure; Tolerance threshold; Environmental hygiene     

涉外企业的货币经营风险管理

结合涉外企业投入与产出所处市场的分割程度或一体化程度,分析了当地企业、进口企业、出口企业或全球经营企业所面临的货币经营风险;对计量涉外企业货币经营风险的方法进行比较,认为管理层估计法对于计量货币经营风险以及制定相应的竞争对策有着重要作用;分别从金融性套期保值、经营性套期保值和营销策略等视角讨论货币经营风险的管理。笔者认为:金融性套期保值通过锁定涉外企业的外币现金流出或流入,可部分抵消涉外企业的货币经营风险暴露;经营性套期保值通过调整企业的经营业务并尽可能多地增加经营现金流,可从根本上提高涉外企业适应汇率变化的能力;通过影响涉外企业及其竞争对手所处的经营环境,营销策略有助于降低涉外企业的货币经营风险暴露。     

城市烟花爆竹安全监控与业务管理综合信息系统的研究和开发

对城市烟花爆竹安全监控与业务管理综合信息系统的需求进行分析;提出了网络化信息管理系统的设计架构和功能设置;并设计开发了城市烟花爆竹安全监控与业务管理综合信息系统,将先进的网络通讯技术、数据实时采集技术、组态技术、安全监控与预警技术和基于W eb的信息管理软件开发技术进行集成设计;实现了基于烟花爆竹仓库现场实时数据监测结果的多媒体联动、多用途智能报警监视硬件设备和配套的业务管理软件的信息融合。