A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

The place of nature in conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts are gaining importance in contemporary conservation scholarship such that conservation may have entered a conflict hype. We attempted to uncover and deconstruct the normative assumptions behind such studies by raising several questions: what are conservation conflicts, what justifies the attention they receive, do conservation-conflict studies limit wildlife conservation, is scientific knowledge stacked against wildlife in conservation conflicts, do conservation-conflict studies adopt a specific view of democracy, can laws be used to force conservation outcomes, why is flexibility needed in managing conservation conflicts, can conservation conflicts be managed by promoting tolerance, and who needs to compromise in conservation conflicts? We suggest that many of the intellectual premises in the field may defang conservation and prevent it from truly addressing the current conservation crisis as it accelerates. By framing conservation conflicts as conflicts between people about wildlife or nature, the field insidiously transfers guilt, whereby human activities are no longer blamed for causing species decline and extinctions but conservation is instead blamed for causing social conflicts. When the focus is on mitigating social conflicts without limiting in any powerful way human activities damaging to nature, conservation-conflict studies risk keeping conservation within the limits of human activities, instead of keeping human activities within the limits of nature. For conservation to successfully stop the biodiversity crisis, we suggest the alternative goal of recognizing nature's right to existence to maintenance of ecological functions and evolutionary processes. Nature being a rights bearer or legal person would imply its needs must be explicitly taken into account in conflict adjudication. If, even in conservation, nature's interests come second to human interests, it may be no surprise that conservation cannot succeed.     

Research on flow assurance of deepwater submarine natural gas pipelines: Hydrate prediction and prevention

The formation of hydrate will lead to serious flow assurance problems in deepwater submarine natural gas transmission pipelines. However, the accurate evaluation model of the hydrate blocking risk for submarine natural gas transportation is still lacking. In this work, a novel model is established for evaluating the hydrate risk in deepwater submarine gas pipelines. Based on hydrate growth-deposition mechanism, the mathematical model mainly consists of mass, momentum and energy conservation equations. Meantime, the model results are obtained by finite difference method and iterative technique. Finally, the model has been applied in the production of deepwater gas field (L Gas Field) in China, and the sensitivity analysis of relevant parameters has been carried out. The results show that: (a). The mathematical model can well predict the hydrate blockage risk in deepwater natural gas pipelines after verification. (b). Hydrate is easily formed at the intersection of horizontal pipeline and vertical riser, and the maximum blocking position often occurs in middle of the riser. (c). The hydrate blockage degree and length of hydrate formation region (HFR) decrease with the increase of gas transport rate. (d). The hydrate blockage degree and length of HFR decrease with the increase of gas transport temperature. (e). The hydrate blockage degree and length of HFR increase with the extension of horizontal pipeline. (f). Injecting inhibitors can effectively inhibit hydrate formation and blockage, but the improvement of transmission measures can significantly reduce the dosage of inhibitor. It is concluded that measures such as increasing gas transportation rate and temperature, shortening horizontal pipeline length, optimizing inhibitor injection point and injection rate can play a safe, economic and efficient role in hydrate preventing and controlling.     

Development and evaluation of RAMP I – a practitioner’s tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1?h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.     

A new leak location method based on leakage acoustic waves for oil and gas pipelines

In order to study a new leak detection and location method for oil and natural gas pipelines based on acoustic waves, the propagation model is established and modified. Firstly, the propagation law in theory is obtained by analyzing the damping impact factors which cause the attenuation. Then, the dominant-energy frequency bands of leakage acoustic waves are obtained through experiments by wavelet transform analysis. Thirdly, the actual propagation model is modified by the correction factor based on the dominant-energy frequency bands. Then a new leak detection and location method is proposed based on the propagation law which is validated by the experiments for oil pipelines. Finally, the conclusions and the method are applied to the gas pipelines in experiments. The results indicate: the modified propagation model can be established by the experimental method; the new leak location method is effective and can be applied to both oil and gas pipelines and it has advantages over the traditional location method based on the velocity and the time difference. Conclusions can be drawn that the new leak detection and location method can effectively and accurately detect and locate the leakages in oil and natural gas pipelines.     

分层开采工艺对地表沉降的影响研究

分层开采是厚煤开采的经典工艺,这种工艺对地表沉降的影响比较复杂。通过测试原岩物理力学参数,利用有限元软件flac3D对分层和一次采全高时地表沉降进行了数值模拟。结果表明,如果采高较小,砌体梁距煤层较近,且采完上分层后长时间停采,给顶板再生留足时间,分层开采较一次采全高对地表沉降影响要小。     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.