CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

梯齿形桥梁伸缩缝U形弯曲件的成形技术

此文介绍一种新型桥梁伸缩缝关键零件U形弯曲件的成形技术.通过对该零件的变形分析和采用合理的工艺措施,使得这一成形难度较大的弯曲件一次压制获得成功.     

Web开发中使用数据库连结池技术

数据库连接池的基本思想就是为数据库连接建立一个"缓冲池".预先在缓冲池中放入一定数量的连接,当需要建立数据库连接时,只需从"缓冲池"中取出一个,使用完毕之后再放回去.我们可以通过设定连接池最大连接数来防止系统无尽的与数据库连接.更为重要的是我们可以通过连接池的管理机制监视数据库的连接数量、使用情况、为系统开发、测试及性能调整提供依据.     

电热管焊接接头挤压裂纹的分析

针对电热管焊接接头挤压产生的裂纹 ,通过采用金相显微镜观察其金相组织并用直读光谱对原材料成分进行化学成分分析 ,排除了成分、焊接工艺规范等的影响。经过对挤压过程分析 ,发现应力集中点是产生裂纹的主要原因 ,并提出了改进的方法     

水深变化对波高与周期联合概率密度分布影响的分析

本文研究了水深的变化以波高与周期联合概率密度分布造成影响。本文将２３６组实测数据按水深因子Ｈ的大小进行了分组，分别对其进行了谱分析和统计分析，得到了各组数据的联合分布图。利用数值模拟的方法扩大水深因子的变化幅度，得到了模拟联合分布图。研究发现，水深因子的改变不会对联合分布构成大的影响，因此得现一般水的波高与周期联合概率密度分布模式适用于浅海的结论。     

气相连通罐组群罐燃爆风险定量评估技术研究

炼化企业气相连通罐组存在群罐重大火灾风险,需要采取系统评估、层层设防的思路进行防控。采用HALOPA技术,结合中国石化风险矩阵标准,建立基于风险的气相连通罐组重大燃爆风险控制准则、不同罐容的事故后果等级划分标准、各类保护措施的风险消减因子和燃爆事件可能性评估方法以及相关重要设计要求。案例分析表明,VOCs气相连通罐组群罐燃爆风险定量评估方法可对群罐火灾风险进行快速量化评估,可用于气相连通罐组的风险评估和工程安全设计。     

城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

基于析因设计的多种重金属对发光菌联合毒性研究

文章采用析因设计的方法,研究沉积物水浸提液掺杂的多种重金属Cu、Cd、Zn、Pb和Ni对发光菌的联合毒性。通过对试验结果进行方差分析和多元线性回归,建立了重金属浓度和发光菌发光抑制率的关系模型:T=97.983Cu+41.111Cd-27.297Zn+129.869Pb+16.715Ni-5 803.639Cu*Cd+2 270.182Cd*Zn-6 411.870Cd*Pb-675.052Cd*Ni-3 108.544Pb*Ni+15 9552.434Cd*Pb*Ni+274 718.434Zn*Pb*Ni。模型分析结果表明:Zn对联合毒性产生负的影响,Cu、Cd、Pb、Ni对联合毒性具有正的贡献;Cd*Zn二元交互作用和Cd*Pb*Ni、Zn*Pb*Ni三元交互作用表现为协同作用,Cu*Cd、Cd*Pb、Cd*Ni、Pb*Ni二元交互作用表现为拮抗作用,而重金属四元和五元交互作用对联合毒性的贡献不显著。上述重金属联合毒性的作用可为沉积物中重金属复合污染控制提供参考。