A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

方头柱塞冷挤镦工艺及模具设计

分析了硬铝合金方头柱塞件的冷挤镦工艺 ,设计了方头柱塞冷挤镦件图 ,计算及选用了毛坯形状及尺寸 ,验算了许可变形程度 ,选择了冷成形用的设备 ,拟制了冷挤镦工艺前的毛坯处理并设计了方头柱塞冷挤镦模具结构。     

Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data-A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake

Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000？8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth（SD） 〉 electrical conductivity （EC）. Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data（chlorophyll-α prediction） and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.     

后张梁管道摩阻损失测试技术与数据处理

针对常规测试中存在的问题 ,改进了管道摩阻损失的测试方法 ,消除了喇叭口等因素影响 ,使得管道摩阻测试更加合理和准确。介绍了后张法预应力管道摩阻损失的计算 ,结合秦沈客运专线双线整孔简支箱梁的管道摩阻损失测试 ,利用最小二乘原理对测试数据进行处理 ,得到了摩阻系数 μ和k的计算公式 ,所得参数为施工提供了依据。最后讨论了摩阻系数对张拉控制应力的影响 ,提出现场测试的一般性原则和要求。     

某型机襟翼舱下壁板蒙皮腐蚀原因分析与修理措施研究

目的研究某型机襟翼舱下壁板蒙皮产生腐蚀损伤的原因,分析腐蚀危害性,制定腐蚀修补方案,提出后续腐蚀防护与控制的建议措施。方法首先现场仔细检查结构的腐蚀状况,然后分别从结构设计与选材、服役环境分析、腐蚀产物分析3个方面研究结构腐蚀产生的成因,并且针对性地制定腐蚀部位的补强修理方案。结果在襟翼舱局部高温湿热环境下形成的内部冷凝水,夹杂大气环境中的Cl~-污染侵袭,导致壁板蒙皮材料LY12铝合金产生了晶间剥落腐蚀。结论老龄飞机机体结构腐蚀成因复杂多样,准确界定腐蚀原因是制定腐蚀防护与控制措施的关键。     

飞机环控系统典型故障分析

环控系统解决了飞机座舱的供气、调温和增压问题,座舱的压力制度按3个阶段进行。通过典型的飞机环控系统故障,对座舱压力调节机理进行了分析,介绍了座舱压力调节过程,分析了导致飞行员耳膜疼痛、座舱压力持续下降的原因,提出了预防故障发生的建议。     

自然贮存环境下某型控制舱贮存寿命评估

目的评估自然贮存环境下某型控制舱贮存寿命。方法针对历年统计的控制舱成败型、不完全故障数据,假设其服从指数分布族、Weibull分布族、极值分布族、对数正态分布族,结合工程实际处理异常数据、"倒挂"数据,采用极小x2估计对分布函数的参数进行估计,采用极小x2检验对各分布函数的合理性进行验证,计算"服从不同自由度下的x2分布随机变量"检验的拟合优度。结果得到了控制舱贮存可靠性分布函数。结论通过统计的故障数据,验证了所提出数学模型评估方法的适用性和正确性,得到了在置信度为0.90、可靠度为0.95条件下控制舱的自然贮存寿命。     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

基于方波溶出伏安法的电化学传感器检测水体中痕量铅

基于方波溶出伏安法运用丝网印刷电极探索了一种利用电化学传感器检测水样中痕量铅的方法.得到了该检测方法的最佳参数:方波频率30 Hz,振幅80 mV,电位增量5 mV;0.5 mol/L的支持电解质(KCl);沉积电位-1.1 V,沉积时间400 s.在该优化条件下,在浓度为25 ～ 500μg/L范围内溶出峰电流与铅离子浓度呈良好的线性关系(R2=0.9945).对于几种其他金属离子的干扰实验结果表明,Mn2的存在严重抑制铅离子的峰电流.     

Electrochemical study of the fungicide acibenzolar-s-methyl and its voltammetric determination in environmental samples

The electrochemical behavior of new generation fungicide acibenzolar-s-methyl (S-methyl 1,2,3-benzothiadiazole-7-carbothioate, ASM) on the hanging mercury drop electrode (HMDE) was investigated using square wave adsorptive stripping voltammetry. This method of determination is based on the irreversible reduction of ASM at the HMDE. The well-defined ASM peak was observed at ?0.4 V (vs. Ag/AgCl) in BR buffer at pH 2.2. The reduction peak current was proportional to concentration of ASM from 1.0 × 10^?8 to 6.0 × 10^?8 mol L^?1 with detection and quantification limit 3.0 × 10^?9 and 1.0 × 10^?8 mol L^?1, respectively. The applicability of the developed method for analysis of spiked samples of tap water, river water, and soil is illustrated. The effect of adsorption on the mercury electrode was studied in detail using the AC impedance method. Possible interferences with other common pesticides and heavy metal ions were examined. Clarification of the electrode mechanism was made using cyclic voltammetry (CV) technique.