Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

加强城市灾害应急管理能力建设确保城市的可持续发展

本文通过对我国城市化与经济发展的关系,分析了我国城市面临的灾害形势及城市应急管理中存在的问题,提出了加强城市应急能力建设的途径,可供国内各大中城市参考和借鉴.     

Influence of new town development on the urban heat island - The case of the Bundang area

Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island.     

抚顺生态城市建设的现状与措施

介绍生态平衡城市的基本条件及抚顺市在建设生态平衡型城市中的基本状况的基础上提出了相关的措施。根据归纳和调查目前抚顺市在经济发展的9项指标中只有2项，环境保护指标15项中只有8项满足生态平衡型城市方面的指标。这说明抚顺市在这方面还存在着很大差距，于是文中进一步提出了相关建议和措施。     

论可持续发展与城市发展战略

分析了传统发展观和发展模式存在的局限性和严重缺陷，介绍了可持续发展战略的形成过程，核心思想和基本内涵，以及对未来世界发展的重大影响力。以上海城市发展为对象，提出了建设国际大都市中应当特别重视解决城市规划、产业结构调整、大力发展第三产业、推行工业清洁生产。改善城市能源结构和优先发展城市环境建设等方面重大问题和所应采取的对策措施。     

Characteristics of air particulate matter and their sources inurban and rural area of Beijing, China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｒｅｉｓａｇｒｏｗｉｎｇａｗａｒｅｎｅｓｓｔｏｔｈｅｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｃｅｏｆａｉｒｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎｉｎｍａｊｏｒｃｉｔｅｓ.Ａｎｕｍｂｅｒｏｆｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｈａｖｅｓｈｏｗｎｔｈａｔｔｈｅｃｏｎｃｅｎｔｒａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｒａｃｅｅｌｅｍｅｎｔｓｉｎｔｈｅｕｒｂａｎａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｅｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｅｌｅｖａｔｅｄｂｙ ｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎ ,ａｎｄｔｈｅｒｅｆｏｒｅ ,ｔｈｅｈｉｇｈｅｓｔｃｏｎｃｅｎｔｒａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｃｏｎｔ…     

The common language of space: a way of looking at the social,economic and environmental functioning of cities on a common basis

１　ＳｏｍｅｑｕｅｓｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄａｎｓｗｅｒｓａｂｏｕｔｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｉｔｙＴｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｓｅｎｔｅｎｃｅｉｎａｎｙｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓｃｉｅｎｃｅｏｆｃｉｔｉｅｓｕｓｕａｌｌｙｃｏｎｔａｉｎｓｔｈｅｗｏｒｄ“ｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｉｔｙ”．Ｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｏｂｖｉｏｕｓｆｏｒｍｓｔｈｉｓｔａｋｅｓｉｓｔｈｅｓｈｅｅｒｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌａｎｄｓｐａｔｉａｌｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｉｔｙｏｆｔｈｅｃｉｔｙａｓａｎｏｂｊｅｃｔ．Ｔｈｅｒｅｉｓ,ｈｏｗｅｖｅｒ,ｉｎｍｏｓｔｕｒｂａｎｒｅｓ…     

昆明城市生态河道建设探讨

在城市河道治理过程中，由于只片面强调防洪、排水，忽略了河道的其他功能，致使河道越挖越宽、越挖越深、越修越直，而河水越来越臭、越来越脏。建设生态河道是解决这些问题的唯一出路，既要顾及河道排洪、防洪等基本功能，又要保持河道生态系统的完整性。     

城市可持续性:欧洲城市改造的经验与启示

全球化和城市化使得世界城市发展面临着严重的生态环境问题与挑战,城市可持续性是解决这些问题的根本出路.本文利用欧洲城市改造的案例对城市可持续性进行了分析和研究,通过城市可持续性的原则、特点和影响因素分析,重点讨论了欧洲地方环境行动计划,以及项目特点、预算来源、战略目标、管理形式和行动计划与方案,指出切实可行的行动计划、普遍的公众参与、充足的资金来源、相关利益人的协作体、信息技术应用是城市可持续性和竞争力提升的根本保证.     

基于灰色预测模型的合肥市城市生活垃圾产量预测

随着合肥市经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的普遍提高,生活和生产过程中产生的日益增多的城市生活垃圾,已成为困扰城市发展、污染市容环境、影响市民生活的社会问题.通过对合肥市城市生活垃圾现状的分析,得出合肥市城市垃圾产生量是逐年增长的,每年3月、5月和8月为垃圾高产期,2月和4月为相对较少月份.在现状分析基础上建立灰色预测模型并用其对未来城市生活垃圾产量进行预测,结果表明合肥市到2030年城市垃圾产量将达到222.47万吨.