A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Spatial variations in daily average CO2 concentrations above wetland surface of Xianghai National Nature Reserve, China

Horizontal and vertical variations of daily average CO2 concentration above the wetland surface were studied in Xianghai National Nature Reserve of China in August, 2000. The primary purpose was to study spatial distribution characteristics of CO2 concentration on the four levels of height(0.1 m, 0.6 m, 1.2 m and 2 m) and compare the differences of CO2 concentration under different land covers. Results showed that daily average CO2 concentration above wetland surface in Xianghai National Natural Reserve was lower than that above other wetlands in northeast China as well as the worldwide average, suggesting that Xianghai wetland absorbed CO2 in August and acted as“sink” of CO2. The horizontal variations on the four levels of height along the latitude were distinct, and had the changing tendency of“decreasing after increasing” with the increase of height. The areas with obvious variations were consistent on different levels of height,and those with the highest variations appeared above surface of shore, sloping field, Typha wetland and Phragmites wetland; the vertical variations were greatly different, with the higher variations in Phragmites wetland and Typha wetland, and the lands near the shore and the sloping field with the lower variations. Spatial variations of daily average CO2 concentrations above wet!and surface were affected by surface qualities and land covers.     

滇池福保湾沉积物不同形态磷的垂向分布

应用SMT连续提取法分析滇池福保湾柱状沉积物的磷(P)形态,探讨P形态的垂向分布特征.沉积物中总磷 (TP)含量高,最高达4　200 mg/kg, 无机磷 (IP)是TP的主要部分,占TP的52%～91%, 铁/铝结合态磷 (Fe/Al-P)是IP的主要部分,占IP的55%～94%.同一湖区不同采样点的沉积物P形态的垂向变化不同,湖湾北端近河口处和南端远离河口处的沉积物中Fe/Al-P, IP, 有机磷 (OP)和TP含量随深度增加而增加,6～11 cm 层的含量最高,这与近年来入湖河流污染负荷削减和河堤阻隔导致P入湖量减少有关.河口处沉积物的钙结合态磷 (Ca-P)含量随深度增加而增加,最南端沉积物的Ca-P含量随深度增加而减少.离河口较远的沉积物中,Fe/Al-P, IP, OP,TP和Ca-P均随深度增加而减少.各点沉积物P形态的变化受该点人类活动带来的入湖污染物量的影响较大,距河口最远处的沉积物中P形态随深度变化不如其他点明显.      

曝气强度对膜生物反应器污泥混合液可滤性的影响

主要研究了曝气强度对膜生物反应器(MBR)膜污染的影响.2套MBR采用恒流出水模式连续运行60 d,曝气强度分别为500及100 L/h,应用死端过滤装置来检测不同阶段污泥混合液的可滤性.实验中对不同曝气强度下的溶解性微生物代谢产物(SMP)分子质量分布、颗粒粒径分布、胞外聚合物(EPS)含量进行了测定.结果表明,过高的曝气强度将恶化污泥混合液的可滤性,增加了膜污染速率.进一步研究表明,曝气强度的增加导致了污泥混合液上清液中相对分子质量>10000的SMP浓度的增加,此部分大分子有机物浓度直接影响了污泥混合液的可滤性.过高的曝气强度也导致了污泥絮体中1～10μm细小颗粒和EPS含量的增加.     

2种动物对复合垂直流人工湿地基质中磷形态的影响

分别向复合垂直流人工湿地下行流池和上行流池中加入蚯蚓和泥鳅,研究动物加入后人工湿地基质中磷形态及去除效率的变化。结果表明,加入蚯蚓后,下行流池基质中铁铝磷(Fe/Al-P)、钙磷(Ca-P)、有机磷和总磷的含量显著增加(p<0.05);加入泥鳅后,上行流池基质中Fe/Al-P含量无显著性变化,钙磷、有机磷、总磷含量增加。人工湿地加入蚯蚓后,基质中Ca-P占总磷的百分比下降,Fe/Al-P和有机磷占总磷的百分比增加;加入泥鳅后,基质中Ca-P占总磷的百分比也下降,而有机磷占总磷的百分比升高,该结果表明,蚯蚓和泥鳅促进了基质中Ca-P向有机磷的转化。加入蚯蚓的人工湿地对磷的去除率高于未加蚯蚓的人工湿地,其原因之一可能与加入蚯蚓后人工湿地基质总磷含量增加有关。     

热电厂双膜法中水深度处理回用系统膜污染机制分析

以某热电厂实际规模的双膜法中水回用系统为考察对象,对膜污染结构、形貌、组成与特征进行了研究。结果表明：污染物以有机-无机-微生物复合形式存在,形成致密的膜污染层,无机物主要以P、S、Ca、Si、Mg为主,存在垂直分布特征;有机污染物以腐殖质类、蛋白质、微生物代谢产物为主,且研究发现RO过程富里酸类物质主要为微生物源。碱性清洗液具有更佳的膜污染清洗效果。通过分析可知：微生物污染是膜污染暴发的关键原因,其以杆菌和球菌为主,且具有显著的垂直分布特征;表层微生物主要是α和β变形菌,底层中γ变形菌丰度显著增加。微生物污染垂直分布的主要原因是杀菌和化学清洗过程的选择作用,γ变形菌是先锋微生物,是形成稳定膜污染层的关键物种。因此,控制微生物的滋生是RO中水深度处理的关键,这个过程主要包括预处理工艺的选择和优化杀菌、阻垢和化学清洗策略等。     

3种组合工艺处理农村生活污水

进行了厌氧折流板反应器-垂直潜流人工湿地(ABR-VSFCW)、复合厌氧反应器-水平潜流人工湿地(HAR-HSFCW)、膨胀颗粒污泥床-人工快速渗滤系统(EGSB-CRI)3种组合工艺处理农村生活污水的研究。结果表明,在温度为10~29℃,进水COD为325.3~386.5 mg/L的条件下,3种组合工艺对COD均有较高的处理效果,当厌氧段HRT大于16 h时,3种组合工艺出水COD浓度均达到了我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)一级B标准;EGSB-CRI、HAR-HSFCW对TP的去除效果较好,出水TP浓度均达到了我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002) 一级B标准, 且显著优于ABR-VSFCW,ABR-VSFCW出水TP浓度达到了二级标准; ABR-VSFCW、HAR-HSFCW、EGSB-CRI出水NH4+-N浓度分别为25.24~42.20、29.59~41.60和9.80~15.35 mg/L,其出水NH4+-N浓度达到了我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)二级标准;3种组合工艺对TN的去除效果无明显差异,去除率仅为23.9%~46.4%。因此,EGSB-CRI对农村生活污水的处理效果最好,HAR-HSFCW次之,ABR-VSFCW较差。     

大气污染物对流垂直输送作用的探讨

利用一个欧拉型硫沉降模式探讨了积云对硫污染物的对流垂直输送作用．结果表明,积云引起的垂直气流是造成大气污染物浓度分布及输送通量变化的重要因素．对流垂直输送可使硫污染物在高层出现大浓度区,浓度的增加率为５０％—４００％,中层和低层的浓度相应也有所变化．积云区内南北剖面上的通量也因对流输送作用在高层出现了大值中心．     

Vertical and temporal distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus and relationship with their influencing factors in aquatic-terrestrial ecotone： a case study in Taihu Lake, China

Vertical and temporal distributions of N and P in soil solution in aquatic-terrestrial ecotone （ATE） of Taihu Lake were investigated, and the relations among N, P, ORP （oxidation reduction potential）, TOC, root system biomass and microorganism were studied. As a whole, significant declines in TN, NO3^--N, DON （dissolved organic nitrogen） and TP concentration in soil solution have occurred with increase of the depth, and reached their minima at 60 cm depth, except for NH4^＋-N, which increased with depth. The concentration of TP increased gradually from spring to winter in the topsoil, the maximum 0.08 mg/L presented in the winter while the minimum 0.03 mg/L in spring. In the deeper layer, the concentration value of TP fluctuated little. As for the NO3^--N, its seasonal variation was significant at 20 cm depth, its concentration increased gradually from spring to autumn, and decreased markedly in winter. Vertical and temporal distribution of DON is contrary to that of NO3^--N. The results also show that the variation of N and P in the percolate between adjacent layers is obviously different. The vertical variation ofTN, TP, NO3^--N, NH4^＋-N and DON is significant, of which the variation coefficient of NO3^--N along the depth reaches 100.23%, the highest; while the variation coefficient of DON is 41.14%, the smallest. The results of correlation analysis show that the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus correlate significantly with TOC, ORP, root biomass and counts of nitrifying bacteria. Most nutrients altered much from 20 to 40 cm along the depth. However, DON changed more between 60 and 80 cm. Results show that soil of 0-60 cm depth is active rhizoplane, with strong capability to remove the nitrogen and phosphorus in ATE. It may suggest that there exists the optimum ecological efficiency in the depth of above 60 cm in reed wetland. This will be very significant for ecological restoration and reestablishment.     

降雨对香溪河库湾主要藻种原位生长的影响

为明晰蓄水期降雨对三峡库区香溪河支流主要藻种原位生长的影响因素,本文在三峡水库降雨前后采用原位培养装置(培养笼)对铜绿微囊藻、小球藻和栅藻生物量变化特征进行原位培养实验.结果表明:①研究期间(2017年10月4～18日)降雨期与非降雨期水动力条件存在显著性差异(ANOVA,P 0. 05),降雨期间3种主要藻种Chl-a总量、比生长速率均显著小于非降雨期(ANOVA,P 0. 05),表明降雨对藻类生长起一定的抑制作用;相关分析结果指出,表征垂向掺混的4个水动力参数与3种藻种比生长速率呈显著/极显著负相关关系,表明水动力条件中剪切力τ、垂向紊流黏性系数Vr和垂向紊流扩散系数Vt的改变是导致藻类迅速衰亡的关键因素;②降雨前培养装置内混合层深度较低(1～2 m),降雨后(10月10～18日)混合层深度明显上升(大于5 m),同时降雨期叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度显著低于非降雨期(ANOVA,P 0. 05).相关分析结果表明,光混比与3种藻种的比生长速率呈显著/极显著正相关,表明降雨导致水体垂向扰动增强,混合层不断扩大,打破了水体原有的水温分层从而抑制藻类的生长增殖;③降雨量、水温、光照强度、总氮(TN)和溶解性总氮(DTN)在降雨期与非降雨期均存在显著差异(ANOVA,P 0. 05),相关分析表明,降雨带来降雨量、水温、光照强度、总氮(TN)和溶解性总氮(DTN)改变是影响3种主要藻种比生长速率的关键环境参数.