Environmental disasters,migration and displacement. Insights and developments from L’Aquila's case

This paper analyses the environmentally-induced migration and displacement resulting from L’Aquila's earthquake of 2009. After a general critical overview of the social science literature on this topic, the main changes in the migration system are analysed looking at the roots and trajectories of the forced human displacement that followed the earthquake, and reflecting on the challenges related to post-earthquake demographic movements and post-disaster resettlement. Through the analysis of the pre disaster (2002–2008) and recovery period (2009–2013) data, this paper offers a general model of how environmental disaster might affect migration and displacement and suggests the main challenges related to the post-disaster governance. Relying on ISTAT data on internal migration in Italy this paper argues that the post-seismic recovery period is characterized by a strong increase of out-flows from L’Aquila to other provinces, within the Abruzzo region and outside it, in particular toward the closest regions (Latium, Campania).     

Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

Floater mortality within settlement areas can explain the Allee effect in breeding populations

The Allee effect (the positive relationship between population growth rate and population size) is a constraint of some animal populations at low numbers, which increases their likelihood of extinction because of a decrease in reproduction and/or survival. We were able to demonstrate that the Allee effect can be the result of a mortality increase affecting floaters (i.e. dispersing individuals able to enter as breeders in the reproductive population when a breeding territory or a potential mate – owner of a suitable breeding territory – becomes available). Previously, potential mechanisms underlying Allee effects were always related to the breeding portion of a population only. In contrast, our understanding of or solutions to population declines due to the Allee effects can reside elsewhere, away from breeding territories.     

The self‐built ecovillage in L'Aquila,Italy: community resilience as a grassroots response to environmental shock

The paper applies the community resilience approach to the post‐disaster case of Pescomaggiore, an Italian village affected by the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009. A group of residents refused to accept the housing recovery solutions proposed by the government, opting for autonomous recovery. They developed a housing project in the form of a self‐built ecovillage, characterised by earthquake‐proof buildings made of straw and wood. The project is a paradigmatic example of a community‐based response to an external shock. It illustrates the concept of ‘community resilience’, which is widely explored in the scientific debate but still vaguely defined. Based on qualitative methodologies, the paper seeks to understand how the community resilience process can be enacted in alternative social practices such as ecovillages. The goal is to see under which conditions natural disasters can be considered windows of opportunity for sustainability.     

Double Allee Effects and Extinction in the Island Fox

Abstract:  An Allee effect (AE) occurs in populations when individuals suffer a decrease in fitness at low densities. If a fitness component is reduced (component AE), per capita population growth rates may decline as a consequence (demographic AE) and extinction risk is increased. The island fox ( Urocyon littoralis ) is endemic to six of the eight California Channel Islands. Population crashes have coincided with an increase in predation by Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We propose that AEs could render fox populations more sensitive and may be a likely explanation for their sharp decline. We analyzed demographic data collected between 1988 and 2000 to test whether fox density (1) influences survival and reproductive rates; (2) interacts with eagle presence and affects fox fitness parameters; and (3) influences per capita fox population trends. A double component AE simultaneously influenced survival (of adults and pups) and proportion of breeding adult females. The adult survival AE was driven by predation by eagles. These component AEs led to a demographic AE. Multiple-component AEs, a predation-driven AE, and the simultaneous occurrence of both component and demographic AEs in a mammal are all previously unreported processes. Populations below 7 foxes/km² could have suboptimal population growth rates due to the demographic AE, and AEs may have contributed to the dramatic declines in three fox populations. Because fox densities in critically endangered populations are well below this level, removing Golden Eagles appears necessary to prevent a predation-driven AE. Conservationists should also be aware of AEs when planning the release of captive foxes. More generally, our findings highlight the danger of overlooking AEs in the conservation of populations of rare or threatened species.     

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

Italy is an earthquake‐prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009—the primary case study in this evaluation—seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years.