Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Dynamics and Causation of Environmental Equity, Locally Unwanted Land Uses, and Neighborhood Changes

/ Why are some environmental risks distributed disproportionately in the neighborhoods of the minorities and the poor? A hypothesis was proposed in a recent study that market dynamics contributed to the current environmental inequity. That is, locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) make the host communities home to more poor people and people of color. This hypothesis was allegedly supported by a Houston case study, whereby its author analyzed the postsiting changes of the socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhoods surrounding solid waste facilities. I argue that such an analysis of postsiting changes alone is insufficient to test the causation hypothesis. Instead, I propose a conceptual framework for analysis of environmental equity dynamics and causation. I suggest that the presiting neighborhood dynamics and the characteristics of control neighborhoods be analyzed as the first test for the causation hypothesis. Furthermore, I present theories of neighborhood change and then examine alternative hypotheses that these theories offer for explaining neighborhood changes and for the roles of LULUs in neighborhood changes. These alternative hypotheses should be examined when analyzing the relationship between LULUs and neighborhood changes in a metropolitan area. Using this framework of analysis, I revisited the Houston case. First, I found no evidence that provided support for the hypothesis that the presence of LULUs made the neighborhoods home to more blacks and poor people, contrary to the conclusion made by the previous study. Second, I examined alternative hypotheses for explaining neighborhood changes-invasion-succession, other push forces, and neighborhood life-cycle; the former two might offer better explanation.KEY WORDS: Environmental equity and justice; Locally unwanted lane uses; Siting; Market dynamics; Invasion-succession; Neighborhood changes     

Climate hazards: Lessons from recent events in the United States

Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored.     

2006—2018年中国省级以上开发区的空间分布特征变化

以新的国土空间规划语境为背景,基于核密度估计、标准差椭圆法和分类统计对我国2006—2018年省级以上开发区的密度分布特征变化、发展重心轴向的变化和主体功能区视角下的分布变化做了分析。研究表明：该阶段我国省级以上开发区空间分布的东西差距得到一定缓解,仍存在东部连片集聚、西部据点集中的模式差异。开发区分布的总体重心已经向西北方向移动,发展轴向则由原来的南北轴向转向了东南—西北轴向。从主体功能区视角来看,开发区空间分布格局呈现出外围扩散与局部缩减的动态调整。开发区规模的增长主要集中在重点开发区域,缩减主要发生在生态功能区域。这些新变化将为我国国土空间土地利用优化和国土空间管控实践提供重要参考。     

Biodegradability: An assessment of commercial polymers according to the Canadian method for anaerobic conditions

The degradation of several biodegradable polymers was measured as a result of exposure to an anaerobic medium. The polymers investigated included materials based upon polylactic acid, polylactone, and poly(hydroxy butyrate/valerate) as well as those incorporating starch-based materials. The degradation was monitored by methane and carbon dioxide evolution. In addition, the physical and chemical changes were noted as a result of exposure. These measurements included changes in mass, dimension, and molecular weight. FTIR, UV-vis, proton, and¹³C NMR spectra were also recorded prior to and after exposure. The results clearly indicated that several biological and chemical degradation processes were occurring with the biodegradable polymers studied.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Second National Meeting, August 19–21, 1993, Chicago, Illinois.Issued as NRCC No. 37549.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。     

气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望

本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容，以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的４ 次缔约方会议的结果； 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制（ＣＤＭ） 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同，以及ＣＤＭ 的特点、方法学与技术问题； 第三部分分析了ＣＤＭ 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给；最后就ＣＤＭ 的实施作了展望。     

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in China induced by greenhouse effect

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.     

Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives

To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches.