模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

中国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价体系和实证分析

我国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价指标体系包括四个层次和三级子系统，内容涉及养老保险人数、机构设置、基金管理和代际平衡四个子目标。应用因子分析模糊综合评价方法对我国1990-2001年养老保险建设状况进行评价，本文认为基金管理，行政管理和代际失衡是影响我国可持续养老保险发展的主要因素。     

黄河三角洲土地质量模糊综合评价

针对土地复杂性、模糊性的特征,本文采用模糊数学中“多级模糊综合评判”的方法进行了黄河三角洲土地质量评价,并对其科学性和可行性作了探讨。     

The aggregation pheromone ofIps duplicatus and its role in competitive interactions withI. typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Summary Ips duplicatus withI. typographus co-inhabiting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) would benefit from a pheromone blend distinct from that of the larger competitorI. typographus. GC-MS analysis showed thatI. duplicatus males feeding in the host produced ipsdienol (Id),cis-verbenol (cV),trans-verbenol (tV), myrtenol (Mt), andE-myrcenol (EM) and traces of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MB).I. duplicatus produced Id in approximately racemic form (48.9-54.5% (+)-(S)-isomer). The amounts of Id and EM released over a 9 day period had a maximum of 250 and 5 ng/h/male, respectively, on day 2. Exposure ofI. duplicatus males to myrcene and -pinene resulted in the production of small amounts of Id, cV, tV, Mt, andtrans-pinocarveol, but not of EM. In laboratory bioassays with walking beetles, the pheromone component Id alone was weakly attractive while EM was inactive, but in binary combination with Id strongly synergized attraction. A combination of EM and Id at a release rate equivalent to 100–200 males was more attractive in the field than 70 unmated males in a spruce log. The addition of myrcene ( a suggested pheromone precursor of Id) to Id did not enhance trap caches, while addition of EM increased catches > 10-fold. Subtracting EM from a blend of Id, EM, cV and MB drastically reduced trap catches while subtraction of cV or MB or both had no significant effect. Addition of EM over a wide concentration range to the synthetic pheromone ofI. typographus did not reduce the attraction of females of this species in the laboratory. A two-species pheromone interaction field test releasingI. typographus pheromone components (MB + cV) at 10–1000 male equivalents (ME) andI. duplicatus pheromone (Id + EM) at 0, 10–1000 ME in all possible combinations showed both positive intraspecific dose-response effects and an interspecific inhibition. Higher release rates of EM appeared to inhibitI. typographus, especially males. In a tree colonization model, the response of the two competing species to their respective pheromones show a good separation during the mass-attack with a small initial cross-attraction. It remains to be shown whether either of the two pheromone systems have in fact evolved in the present sympatry, or if they are an incidental effect of ancestry of these phylogenetically distantIps.     

MnO2/Al2O3催化剂-微气泡臭氧体系催化降解喹啉及其机理

制备了纳米MnO₂,并以Al₂O₃为载体制备了掺杂型MnO₂/Al₂O₃颗粒催化剂.催化剂焙烧温度和时间分别为500℃和4 h、MnO₂质量分数为8%时,催化剂具有最高的臭氧催化氧化活性.SEM分析表明,纳米MnO₂均匀分布于Al₂O₃载体表面.MnO₂/Al₂O₃催化剂的比表面积（BET）为183.22 m²·g^-1,平均孔容为0.27 cm³·g^-1,平均孔径为4.87 nm.建立了MnO₂/Al₂O₃催化剂-微气泡臭氧催化反应体系,研究了该体系对喹啉的降解去除效果及其机理.臭氧微气泡的平均粒径为61.7 μm.微气泡臭氧投量为30 mg·L^-1时,反应60 min后喹啉去除率能达到95%以上;反应20 min后,MnO₂/Al₂O₃催化剂-微气泡臭氧体系对实际煤化工废水二级出水的TOC去除率可达到55%以上.以叔丁醇作为分子探针,证明了羟基自由基（·OH）氧化作用在臭氧微气泡催化氧化体系中对喹啉的降解起到主导作用.     

MnFe2O4磁性纳米棒非均相Fenton催化降解水中四环素的研究

采用水热合成法成功制备出MnFe₂O₄磁性纳米棒（s-MnFe₂O₄）,并考察了商品化的Fe₃O₄、MnFe₂O₄和合成的s-MnFe₂O₄纳米棒这3种磁性纳米颗粒作为非均相Fenton催化剂降解水中四环素抗生素的性能.同时,采用X射线衍射（XRD）、透射电镜（TEM）、N₂吸附-脱附、振动样品磁强计（VSM）及X射线光电子能谱（XPS）等技术对催化剂的理化性质进行了表征.非均相Fenton催化降解四环素的结果表明,s-MnFe₂O₄具有最高的催化活性,反应180 min,四环素的去除率可以达到87.6%,TOC的去除率达到47.5%.自由基捕获试验证实了羟基自由基（·OH）是非均相Fenton氧化过程中的主要活性物种.s-MnFe₂O₄磁性纳米棒的高催化活性归因于其表面拥有较高含量的Mn³⁺和Fe²⁺物种,它们的存在能加速界面电子的转移效率,从而促进·OH的生成.合成的s-MnFe₂O₄催化剂具有良好的稳定性,循环使用6次,四环素的去除率仅从87.6%降低到80.2%,且氧化过程中活性组分的流失很少.     

外源8''-炔基脱落酸强化东南景天吸收重金属的研究

为探究脱落酸类似物8''-炔基脱落酸[8''-（C₂H）ABA]强化东南景天富集重金属的效应,通过水培的方法研究了外源8''-（C₂H）ABA分别对Cd（20 mg·L^-1）、Zn（160 mg·L^-1）单一胁迫下东南景天Cd/Zn积累和生理特性的影响,以及初步探讨了8''-（C₂H）ABA在植物重金属胁迫响应中的作用.实验结果表明：与天然ABA相比,外源8''-（C₂H）ABA能达到与ABA类似的作用效果,且对Cd胁迫下东南景天促进效果好于Zn;在Cd胁迫下,与对照相比,外源8''-（C₂H）ABA能显著增加东南景天根、叶中的Cd含量（44.2%、27.5%）,以及光合色素（10.7%）和叶中过氧化物酶（SOD）活性（52.9%）、超氧化物歧化酶（POD）（24.7%）和过氧化氢酶（CAT）活性（27.9%）抗氧化酶活性,使可溶性糖（SS）（13%）和游离脯氨酸（Pro）（37.4%）含量增加,而叶中丙二醛（MDA）（40%）含量明显降低.上述结果表明,一定浓度的8''-（C₂H）ABA可以提高东南景天抗氧化酶活性来增强其对重金属Cd的抗性及吸收和转运能力,在强化东南景天修复重金属污染方面具有应用潜力.     

中国原油进口来源国供应安全的定量评估

原油供给安全在中国国家安全中占有重要地位,对其定量评估可为防范风险提供政策参考。采用事件数据分析法定量测度中国与21个主要原油进口来源国之间的双边关系,结果表明：中国与大多数原油贸易伙伴的关系处于中低水平,但近十多年总体保持上升趋势,原油进口存在一定的政治关系风险但趋于下降。选用资源、政治、经济、运输、军事5个方面的11个指标,通过组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用集对分析方法评估中国21个原油进口来源国的供应安全度,并识别主要障碍因子。结果表明：21国供应安全度存在较大差异。部分中东国家、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦供应安全度较高,多数非洲国家和亚太国家供应安全度较低。供应国的原油资源状况、运输风险、政治风险是制约多数国家供应安全的主要障碍因素。为防范风险,中国需坚持开展多边“能源外交”,扩大战略石油储备等多方面施策方针。