Communicating risk for vulnerable groups: a case study of the Mano community’s strategies for collective knowledge to action

This paper discusses the emergent interest in risk communication as a strategy for disaster risk reduction. Communication plays an essential role in understanding risk, but studies suggest that people often do not respond in the way that risk experts anticipate. For risk communication to be effective, vulnerable communities need to understand risk within the local context as well as in terms of sustainability. Risk messages offer communities a way to enhance their collective knowledge of existing vulnerabilities, leading them towards alternative solutions for action. A longitudinal study of the Mano community development approach and its recovery from the 1995 Kobe earthquake illustrates how risk communication dynamics contributed to the community’s sustainable risk reduction. The study concludes that risk communication is a collaborative way for a community to work with risk experts, own their risk information, influence existing policies and practices, develop solutions to reduce vulnerability, and ultimately enhance a community’s capacity for managing future risk.     

由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

阪神地震与日本地震保险的发展

以日本 1 995年 1月 1 7日阪神大地震为例 ,介绍了日本地震保险事业的发展历史和现状 ,希望为我国地震保险事业的发展提供一些有益的借鉴。     

日本阪神地震中海港码头,河流堤岸的震害及其教训

介绍了日本阪神地震中海港码头、河流堤岸的破坏类型和受灾状况,初步分析了破坏原因,对今后码头、堤岸的抗震防灾提出了建议．     

Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake

This paper provides a framework for assessing empirical patterns of urban disaster recovery through the use of statistical indicators. Such a framework is needed to develop systematic knowledge on how cities recover from disasters. The proposed framework addresses such issues as defining recovery, filtering out exogenous influences unrelated to the disaster, and making comparisons across disparate areas or events. It is applied to document how Kobe City, Japan, recovered from the catastrophic 1995 earthquake. Findings indicate that while aggregate population regained pre‐disaster levels in ten years, population had shifted away from the older urban core. Economic recovery was characterised by a three to four year temporary boost in reconstruction activities, followed by settlement at a level some ten per cent below pre‐disaster levels. Other long‐term effects included substantial losses of port activity and sectoral shifts toward services and large businesses. These patterns of change and disparity generally accelerated pre‐disaster trends.     

按带头地震和倍九法对1995年日本阪神大震的预报进行回顾性讨论

1995年日本阪神7．2级大震损失惨重。震后日本官方改变了以预报为基础的防震减灾计划．这一改变对全世界地震预报的信心起了很大的削弱作用．本文以阪神大震极震区震前9d的氡气突跳异常以及1946年12月21日南海8．1级地震（距阪神约150km）为依据,按我们早期提出的倍九律和带头地震来讨论阪神大震的预报．我们的结论是临震预报不要放弃,应继续前进。     

Estimation of the amount of dry deposition in an urban area (Kobe city, Japan) by the inferential method

The amount of dry deposition of SO₂(g) and HNO₃(g) in an urban area in Japan has been estimated by the inferential method. The mean annual dry deposition of SO₂(g) (2.91 kgS/ha/year) was close to or less than that in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) of the U.S. (3.59 kgS/ha/year). The mean annual dry deposition of HNO₃(g) (10.8 kgN/ha/year) was approximately six times larger than that in CASTNet (1.85 kgN/ha/year). The proportions of dry/(dry+wet) deposition for sulfur and nitrogen were 0.301 and 0.785, respectively.     

从阪神震害看沈阳市的防震减灾对策

通过对日本阪神震害的主灾区神户市与中国沈阳市在人口、经济发展状况及地震背景等方面的对比，指出了沈阳市潜在的地震灾害危险，并参考神户在防震灾规划中所存在的失误，提出了沈阳市应采取的防震减灾措施和对策．     

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre‐disaster and post‐recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy‐making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.     

21世纪东京都的地震问题分析及其防震防灾对策思考

在广泛收集资料的基础上 ,对日本关东、阪神二次大地震作了概述 ,并将其灾情作了比较与分析。进而提出了日本首都的地震危险性问题 ,针对东京这样的政治、经济、文化、人口等高度集中的大都市的特点 ,提出几点防震减灾建议。并希望以上分析工作能对中国大城市的防震减灾工作有一点启示。