Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

基于L-THIA模型的四川省濑溪河流域非点源污染负荷分析

非点源污染是造成流域水环境恶化的重要原因之一,掌握非点源污染的时空分布特征是流域水环境污染防治和流域综合管理的基础性工作.为落实国家《水污染防治行动计划》,四川省启动了濑溪河等流域综合治理达标方案编制工作,探明濑溪河流域非点源污染负荷及其分布特征是该方案编制的前提.以四川省境内濑溪河流域为研究区域,基于GIS（地理信息系统）,利用L-THIA（long-term hydrologic impact assessment,长期水文影响评价）模型,基于2015年土地利用地图数据、土壤水文数据以及长时间序列（2009—2014年）逐日降雨数据,调整模型参数,使模型模拟径流量符合水文站监测数据,进而模拟2014—2015年流域内的非点源污染负荷空间分布.L-THIA模型模拟得到濑溪河流域径流量约为5.10×108 m3,和控制水文站实测径流量相比,模型模拟相对误差为5%,表明模型模拟质量较好,模拟结果可信度较高.结果表明,流域内TP、NH₃-N、COD_Cr非点源污染负荷分别为204.10、353.12、5 162.53 t;农业用地对研究区的非点源污染影响最大,林地最小;根据濑溪河水系分布特点将研究区划分为16个控制单元,各控制单元TP、NH₃-N、COD_Cr的空间分布特征及比例相似,研究区非点源污染平均负荷强度为3.72 t/km2,TP、NH₃-N、COD_Cr的输出范围分别为（0.08~0.15）（0.14~0.27）（2.19~3.89）t/km2.研究显示,流域非点源污染产生量的估算和空间分布特征的揭示为编制濑溪河流域水污染治理方案提供了科学参考.      

Simulating the impacts of land-use changes on non-point source pollution in Lugu Lake watershed

Protection of the water quality of Lugu Lake is important because it is a unique geographic and cultural resource. Not only point source pollution but also non-point source pollution contribute to degradation of water quality. A GIS-NPS model, with long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA), was used to evaluate long-term implications of land-use change impacts on non-point source (NPS) pollution. The land-use patterns of 1995 and 2005 were analysed to determine the changes in Lugu Lake watershed. A 30-year (1974–2003) precipitation dataset was used to estimate mean annual surface runoff and NPS pollutant loads. The contributions of different land-use categories to average annual runoff and NPS pollutant production were assessed with a unit contribution index (UCI). Results show loss of agricultural land (by 44.9%), while forest, grass/pasture and residential land increased to different degrees from 1995 to 2005. At the same time, annual average NPS pollutants, TN, TP, TSS and BOD loads all decreased, while heavy metal lead increased by 6.87%. The UCI formulated in this research was a more useful method to assess land-use impact on NPS pollutants than simple investigations of the percentage land-use change. Agricultural and residential land changes had more impact on NPS pollutants and were identified as the main source types. Suggestions on regulating land uses and management proposals for protecting lake water quality in Lugu Lake watershed are made.     

Long-Term Impacts of Land-Use Change on Non-Point Source Pollutant Loads for the St. Louis Metropolitan Area, USA

A land-use-change simulation model (LEAM) and a non-point-source (NPS) water quality model (L-THIA) were closely coupled as LEAMwq in order to determine the long-term implications of various degree of urbanization on NPS total nitrogen (TN), total suspended particles (TSP), and total phosphorus (TP) loads. A future land-use projection in the St. Louis metropolitan area from 2005 to 2030 using three economic growth scenarios (base, low, and high) and a long-term precipitation dataset were used to predict the mean annual surface runoff and mean annual NPS pollutant loads in the region. Results show mean annual TN increases of 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.14% by 2030 compared to 2000 under the base, high, and low scenarios, respectively. TSP and TP showed similar trends with different magnitudes. Corresponding changes in annual mean surface runoff were shown to be lower than expected, which might be attributed to the small-scale conversion pattern of land uses. In the most dramatic change (high growth) scenario, the runoff would increase across time but at varying rates, and temporal pollutant loads would result in a more complicated pattern than in the other scenarios. This is attributed to the complex interactions between event mean concentrations of pollutants and the magnitude of changes in land-use acreages. By integrating L-THIA with LEAM, LEAMwq was found to be a useful planning tool to illustrate in a quick and simple manner how future water quality is connected to decision-making on future land-use change.     

汉阳非点源污染控制区划

城市非点源污染控制区划是控制和管理非点源污染、实现城市可持续发展的重要前提.在探讨城市非点源污染控制区划的原则与方法的基础上,结合城市可持续发展原则、非点源污染敏感性优先原则、非点源污染控制方向相似原则,以武汉市汉阳区为例,尝试了基于L-THIA模型,以GIS空间分析技术为平台,城市非点源污染敏感性评价为核心的定量区划方法.将汉阳划分出4个非点源污染控制区,分区结果可为区域非点源污染控制决策提供科学依据.     

Study on the Non-point Source Pollution in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Basin

The Taoer River basin is the epitome in the west of Northeast China and it is one of the most fragile and sensitive ecoregions. Thus, protection of water quality of the Taoer River is important. Not only point source pollution but non-point source (NPS) pollution results in deteriorating water quality. In this study, long-term hydrologic impact assessment model was used to evaluate the impacts of land use change impacts on NPS pollution, and the replacement cost method was used to calculate the economic loss caused by NPS pollution. Through analyzing the NPS pollutant loads of different land categories and the economic loss, the article puts forward that there exists a close relationship between land-use types and NPS pollution, and agricultural pollution is the main component of the NPS pollution in this area. The results of this study can provide decision-making basis for agricultural development and land-use change.     

浏阳河土地利用变化对非点源污染负荷的影响

以红壤丘陵区典型流域——浏阳河流域为研究区域,利用1986、2000、2005年3个时段的土地利用数据,分析土地利用方式的变化,并结合土壤普查图和降雨数据,在RS和GIS的支持下,利用长期水文影响评价(L-THIA)模型,评估区域长期水文响应,采用相似流域的营养盐输出系数估算非点源污染负荷。结果表明,从1986～2005年期间,林地和草地有向城镇、农村居民点用地和农业用地转化的趋势,其中农业用地由13.75%增加到20%左右,城镇用地和农村居民用地分别由原来的1.34%和0.10%变为2.56%和0.80%,期间非点源污染敏感区面积不断扩大,污染负荷不断增加,TN由1986年的675.56 t增加到2005年的1 001.02 t,TP从15.52 t增加到了23.41 t。     

基于模型模拟的城市非点源污染控制措施设计

目前针对城市小流域进行非点源污染控制措施去污效果的模拟研究处于起步阶段.利用L-THIA模型模拟武汉市汉阳地区三角湖流域2个小汇水单元（Sj1、Sj2）不同土地利用类型上的非点源污染物累积量,模拟得出1次典型降雨前Sj1和Sj2中污染物总量分别为1 .82×10⁴ kg、1 .38×10⁵ kg.基于“源-汇”和格局与过程相互作用理论,针对降雨前2 h内产生的径流,从源、污染物迁移过程和汇3个阶段采取绿色屋顶、草地、多孔路面、渗透渠、植被过滤带和湿塘等多种BMPs及其组合,进行去污效果模拟.结果显示经系列化BMPs处理后进入三角湖的污染物量占Sj1、Sj2总污染物量的14 .65%和6 .57%,控制措施效果比较明显.在流域或区域尺度上,利用L-THIA模型可以在工程建设之前进行效果预测模拟,以减少不必要的风险.     

基于L-THIA模型的市桥河流域非点源氮磷负荷分析

以番禺市桥河流域为研究对象,利用现场建立的不同土地利用类型的径流场实测降雨径流数据,对长期水文影响评价模型(L-THIA)的主要参数进行校正,模拟计算该流域非点源氮磷负荷量,并分析土地利用和降雨变化对氮磷负荷输出的影响.结果表明,市桥河流域内非点源氮磷污染高负荷区主要集中在农业用地和城镇用地,单位面积污染负荷输出最高的为农业用地.从1995~2010年,流域非点源氮磷负荷呈增加趋势,TN增加了17.91%,而TP的增加幅度达到了25.30%.随着流域城镇化的迅速发展,城镇用地明显增加,所占比例达到了43.94%,2010年对负荷总量的贡献率也已超过40%,几乎与农业用地持平,这也是近15年来流域内农业用地面积虽然有所降低,但污染负荷总量仍然增加的主要因素.流域内降雨主要集中在汛期,因而汛期非点源氮磷负荷亦远高于非汛期,占全年比例超过了85%.不同降雨类型发生次数与污染负荷的Pearson相关分析表明,日降雨量大于20 mm的降雨是造成流域内非点源氮磷污染的主要降雨类型.     

基于L-THIA模型的温榆河流域非点源污染负荷变化分析

为研究温榆河流域城市化过程中土地利用变化对非点源污染负荷的影响,基于GIS(地理信息系统)和RS(遥感),利用二次开发改进后的长期水文影响评价(L-THIA)模型,采用实地测得的EMC(事件平均浓度)数据,模拟了1992年和2009年非点源污染负荷量.结果表明,1992-2009年的城市化过程中商业用地、交通用地和住宅用地分别增加了13.95％、20.46％和85.76％,农业用地和水域分别减少40.04％和9.64％,导致非点源污染负荷量(总磷除外)明显增加.其中,总氮增加了3.31％,氨氮增加了12.20％,BOD5(5日生化需氧量)增加了11.87％,CODMn(化学需氧量)增加了7.62％,TOC(总有机碳)增加了15.46％,总磷下降了12.84％.交通用地、商业用地的非点源污染产出能力最强,应该成为非点源污染的重点控制区域.