A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

A multi-path routing-inventory problem for a closed-loop supply chain considering the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles

In this paper, the inventory-routing problem is studied for a closed-loop supply chain. This closed-loop supply chain considers suppliers, manufacturers, whole-sellers, and disposal centers. To formulate this problem, a mixed integer linear programming model is proposed. This mathematical model minimizes the total costs of the supply chain, including the fixed and variable costs of vehicles, and holding inventory costs of final products and scraps. The proposed model considers the road roughness degree, multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which increases its flexibility and the quality of solutions. Then, two symmetry-breaking constraints are proposed to reduce the complexity of the mathematical model. In order to evaluate the integrity of the proposed model, 20 instances of different sizes are randomly generated and solved. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to five key features of the problem, such as the impact of the symmetry-breaking constraints on the CPU time, multi-path setting, fixed cost of vehicles, heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, and lost sales. The results indicate that the consideration of multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles improves the quality of solutions significantly.     

Industrial Cluster Upgradation of Regenerated Resources in Miluo City

With China's rapid economic growth, ecological construction and environmental protection become increasingly important. The regenerated resources industry is an effective way to solve problems, such as resources depletion, energy shortage, and pollution, and it also has strategic importance for the construction of a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society. The regenerated resources industry has been established in Miluo for long time, which includes a recycling system, a processing and utilization system, and a refuse decontamination system. An industrial cluster is in its early stage of development. In order to solve current problems, such as short industrial chain, low processing rate, and low added value, the industrial cluster should be dynamically upgraded by means of technology innovation, chain nucleus creation, and chain extension. We think the industrial cluster of regenerated resources will become a local brand for Miluo, from which other regions or cities will gain valuable experiences and inspirations.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

Mulberry-silkworm food chain--a templet to assess heavy metal mobility in terrestrial ecosystems

Assessment of the food chain mobility of heavy metals inthe natural ecosystem receives more attention nowadays. Inthe present study, mulberry-silkworm food chain has beenfocused as a templet to assess the biomobility of heavymetals in soil-higher plant-insect hierarchy. Both in thecase of Cd and Cu treatments, higher mobility wasobserved in the level-1 (soil–root) followed by level-3(leaf–larva), level-4 (larvae–faecal) and level-2(root–leaf). Consequently, roots accumulated more amountsof Cd and Cu, with a limited transport to the leaves.Among the two metals (Cd and Cu) tested, in the plant,the transfer potential of Cd exceeds that of Cu. Whereasin the case of leaf–larval transfer, Cu precedes overCd. Accumulation of Cd and Cu in all the levels (1–4)tested showed a concentration dependent increase, except inthe level 4 (larva–faecal) of Cd treatment where adeclining trend was noticed.     

农药污染与朱鹮

通过对我国重点保护的一级野生动物“东方宝石”-朱鹮栖息地农药污染状况的调查及研究表明:朱鹮已被通过生物链受到农药的污染,应引起有关方面的重视。     

中国东南沿海的地质构造特征

本文主要论述了中国东南大地构造演化特征。晋宁旋回,南北板块碰撞,形成近东西向构造格局、转换块间带及交结盆地。加里东旋回至印支旋回,东南地壳由非成熟性地壳逐渐向稳定性大陆地壳过渡。陆壳的生长是以两个外隆为中心呈环带状向外扩张。燕山旋回,大陆破坏和改造,形成大陆边缘的流纹岩链。显示了地壳生长为多旋回前进演化的特征。     

基于[火用]分析法的矿区工业生态链物质能量流动研究

从工业生态学角度研究矿区工业生态系统的工业代谢和工业生态链，建立矿区物质循环与能量流动[火用]分析和[火用]效率模型。根据生态效率的理念，矿区发展需要五项关键支撑技术，为合理选择煤炭的产业链延伸途径打下理论基础，促进矿区可持续发展。     

新疆D矿田金矿资源定量评价

本文在建立D矿田找矿信息层次模型基础上,确定矿田统计单元划分和地质变量提取的赋值原则,将该矿田划分出466个统计单元,提取25个地质变量并进行二态赋值,而后应用数量化理论Ⅲ。特征分析法及勃尔法等方法,建立了矿田金矿资源定量评价模型,定位预测了45个勘探靶区。     

Verification of carrier status for Becker muscular dystrophy from analysis of a blighted ovum

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used on material from a blighted ovum to confirm indirectly the carrier status of a woman with a family history of Becker muscular dystrophy. Conventional testing including creatine kinase levels, muscle biopsy, and EMG had been inconclusive, and on the basis of one elevated creatine kinase level, the woman had been designated a possible carrier. Ultrasound examination at 10 weeks of pregnancy indicated a blighted ovum, from which DNA was subsequently extracted and subjected to PCR testing for determination of sex and genotypic status with respect to the known familial deletion of the dystrophin gene. The blighted ovum was found to have a Y chromosome and also to be deleted for at least exon 6 of the dystrophin gene, indirectly indicating that the mother most likely carried the family mutation for Becker muscular dystrophy.