A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

A multi-path routing-inventory problem for a closed-loop supply chain considering the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles

In this paper, the inventory-routing problem is studied for a closed-loop supply chain. This closed-loop supply chain considers suppliers, manufacturers, whole-sellers, and disposal centers. To formulate this problem, a mixed integer linear programming model is proposed. This mathematical model minimizes the total costs of the supply chain, including the fixed and variable costs of vehicles, and holding inventory costs of final products and scraps. The proposed model considers the road roughness degree, multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which increases its flexibility and the quality of solutions. Then, two symmetry-breaking constraints are proposed to reduce the complexity of the mathematical model. In order to evaluate the integrity of the proposed model, 20 instances of different sizes are randomly generated and solved. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to five key features of the problem, such as the impact of the symmetry-breaking constraints on the CPU time, multi-path setting, fixed cost of vehicles, heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, and lost sales. The results indicate that the consideration of multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles improves the quality of solutions significantly.     

Experience in quantitative analysis of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka

Quantitative methods have been applied to the study of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka. The results show that Samarskaya Luka is a floristically heterogeneous area in which six elementary floras can be distinguished. This area has been assessed as a floristically autonomous formation, and its floristic representativeness was estimated.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Industrial Cluster Upgradation of Regenerated Resources in Miluo City

With China's rapid economic growth, ecological construction and environmental protection become increasingly important. The regenerated resources industry is an effective way to solve problems, such as resources depletion, energy shortage, and pollution, and it also has strategic importance for the construction of a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society. The regenerated resources industry has been established in Miluo for long time, which includes a recycling system, a processing and utilization system, and a refuse decontamination system. An industrial cluster is in its early stage of development. In order to solve current problems, such as short industrial chain, low processing rate, and low added value, the industrial cluster should be dynamically upgraded by means of technology innovation, chain nucleus creation, and chain extension. We think the industrial cluster of regenerated resources will become a local brand for Miluo, from which other regions or cities will gain valuable experiences and inspirations.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

焦化废水处理过程中固相物质的形成及处置方法评价

焦化废水处理过程中产生的焦油、污泥和结晶杂盐等固相物质,既有资源属性,又有污染特性,但目前缺乏基于能源、经济及环境影响方面的评估.本研究阐述了3类固相物质的形成机制,建立了质量当量计算及处置方法评价模型.以宝武集团韶关钢铁股份有限公司焦化厂（二期）焦化废水处理工程的A/O/H/O（厌氧/好氧/水解/好氧）流化床工艺作为考察对象,利用工程运行参数和水质统计数据进行固相物质的产量推算,结果发现,焦油、物化污泥、生物污泥（含水率为80%）和工业杂盐的产率分别为0.186、5.80、4.24和1.97 kg·m^-3.通过处置方法评价模型明确了焦油焚烧、污泥热解、结晶杂盐分盐提纯后工业应用是最佳处置方案,在60 m³·h^-1废水处理规模的固相物质处置过程中,每年约产生1177 MWh的能源,获得135.0万元的经济效益,排放627.0 t CO₂,表明能源回收、经济效益和环境影响的协同存在.     

国内外饮用水余氯限值及监测方法的研究进展

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间大规模使用含氯消毒剂,其残留可能对水环境及人体健康造成影响.我国饮用水水源地质量标准并未设置余氯项目及其浓度限值,且缺乏统一的余氯现场快速分析方法标准.为公共卫生事件发生期间的水质余氯监测与评价提供参考,对国内外饮用水标准余氯限值、实验室标准分析方法、现场快速分析方法等进行汇总分析,结果表明:①不同国家和地区以及WHO（World Health Organization,世界卫生组织）在饮用水标准中分别设置了出厂水中余氯限值（范围为0.1~2.0 mg/L）、管网末梢水中余氯限值（范围为0.1~1.8 mg/L）及饮用水中余氯最大允许浓度（范围为4~5 mg/L）.②比色法、容量法因其具有反应迅速且稳定、准确度及精密度较高等优点而成为国内外实验室主要标准或推荐分析方法,高效液相色谱法检出限最低,灵敏度最高,可用于余氯痕量分析.③余氯现场快速分析方法多以比色法为主,在线监测方法多为电化学方法,但缺乏统一的标准方法.研究显示,国外饮用水标准中余氯最大允许浓度为5 mg/L,WHO推荐高风险环境下的管网末梢余氯浓度最低为0.5 mg/L,建议尽快开展水质余氯现场监测方法标准化研究.      

有机垃圾厌氧消化泡沫产生机理及控制方法

为了分析厌氧消化泡沫的产生机理和控制方法有助于解决有机垃圾厌氧消化起泡问题,本文调研了近年来报道的厌氧消化系统起泡现象,并从底物特性、反应器构造及运行条件和消化过程相关特性3方面分析了不同底物、工艺和环境条件下厌氧消化反应器的起泡机理;讨论了丝状菌指数、表面张力、粘度、有机负荷、起泡趋势和泡沫稳定性等参数作为起泡风险评价指标的合理性;介绍和比较了4类消泡方法（物理法、机械法、生物法和化学法）的消泡原理及优缺点.目前,除污泥厌氧消化系统外,其他有机垃圾厌氧消化系统起泡的主要因素尚不明确,而这也限制了泡沫控制方法的开发.后期探索关键起泡微生物或研究生物表面活性物质与起泡的相关性,将有助于从新的角度揭示起泡机理,并开发出针对性更强的泡沫控制方法.     

用灰色聚类法对荔湾湖水质富营养化程度的评价

灰色聚类法把湖泊系统当作一个灰色系统来研究,将灰色聚类理论应用于湖泊富营养化程度的评价中,以广州市荔湾湖为例,建立不同的聚类指标所拥有的隶属函数,确定聚类权重值,求得最大聚类系数及聚类结果,得出用灰色聚类法进行湖泊水质富营养化评价,既能体现水质等级界线的模糊性,又能充分利用信息,避免了模糊数学法的不合理之处。因而,灰色聚类法是一种简便、客观、可靠的方法。