Experimental and natural changes in the peacock's (Pavo cristatus) train can affect mating success

Petrie et al. (1991) demonstrated a correlation between the degree of elaboration of peacocks' trains and their mating success, and also showed that this correlation occurred because females preferred to mate with the male that had the most elaborate train of those sampled on the lek. Although these data suggest that female choice is responsible for non-random mating in this species, they do not conclusively show that train morphology is the cue that females respond to, because they do not rule out the possible influence of another unidentified variable which is correlated with train elaboration. This paper presents an experimental test of the importance of the peacock's train in determining male mating success. If the number or arrangement of eye-spots in the peacock's train influences mating success, then changing the number of eye-spots should change mating success. This prediction was tested in an experiment where the trains of male peafowl (Pavo cristatus) were manipulated by removing a number of eye-spots between mating seasons. Peacocks with eye-spots removed showed a significant decline in mating success between seasons compared with a control group. This result, together with the observational data, supports the hypothesis that the peacock's train has evolved, at least in part, as a result of female choice.     

Determinants of male mating success in the red bishop (Euplectes orix)

We studied sexual selection in the red bishop, Euplectes orix, a colonial, polygynous weaverbird widely distributed over sub-Saharan Africa. Male reproductive success measured in terms of the number of nests accepted by females and the number of eggs and nestlings in all the nests on a male's territory varied considerably. The standardized variance (variance/mean²) in male reproductive success ranged from 0.505 to 1.737 in different years, indicating a high potential for sexual selection in this species. An analysis of genetic parentage for 432 nestlings by non-radioactive, multilocus DNA fingerprinting confirmed that male reproductive success (number of young sired on the territory) in this species can be reliably estimated by the measures introduced above. In all 4 study years there was a strong positive correlation between male mating success and the total number of nests that males built in their territories. The number of nests built can be partitioned into the number of weeks a male held a territory and his nest-building performance. Both factors exert a significant positive effect on male mating success and in combination explained between 53.3 and 86.3% of the variation in male reproductive success. Male morphological characters were found to be of no importance. Males that established a territory in the following season built more nests and held their territories for longer than males that did not establish a territory in the following season, suggesting that these measures might be indicators of male condition and quality. Male nest-building performance (number of nests built per week) seems to be unrelated to male condition or quality. Received: 8 January 1999 / Received in revised form: 7 June 1999 / Accepted: 13 June 1999     

Alternative mating tactics in the Italian treefrog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hyla intermedia</Emphasis>

As in many lekking anurans, Italian treefrog males use two mating tactics: they can attract females by calling vigorously or be satellites, that is, they can remain silent in proximity of a calling male and try to intercept females attracted by their neighbour. We investigated the factors that affected the expression of this mating tactic. Consistent with the conditional mating tactic hypothesis, satellites were smaller than average and smaller than their parasitised calling males. They spent a larger-than-average number of nights at the breeding site, where most of them were also observed calling. Moreover, satellites showed lower call rates and lower mating success than those of males they parasitise but not lower than those of males they did not parasitise. Overall, these results, together with those derived from the analyses of the seasonal and spatial distribution of males, provide evidence for a non-random association between satellites and calling males and are consistent with the hypothesis that satellites have spectral and temporal acoustic preferences that parallel those of females. By adopting the less-successful satellite mating tactic, competitively inferior males can nevertheless maximise their potential reproductive fitness by sexually parasitising the most attractive chorusing males.     

Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

基于APJE-SLIM的海运人因失误概率的确定

安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因.为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率.在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM 相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析.结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率.利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率.