Environmental degradation by mud in tropical estuaries

In wet tropical countries, the intense rainfall and the lack of effective restrictions on human activities in the river catchment leads to increased rates of soil erosion. This has increased the sediment loads many times over from the natural level. As a result, estuarine and coastal waters are becoming increasingly muddy with associated losses for society in terms of increased flooding and a degradation of the environment, the fisheries and the economic use of these waters. It is suggested that science-based models be used to predict the fate of mud in estuaries and coastal waters when planning development in river catchments, particularly in wet tropical countries. This would help integrate land and water management. Modelling technology is demonstrated by a combination of field and model studies in four turbid tropical estuaries, namely the Fly River in Papua New Guinea, the Mekong River in Vietnam, the Cimanuk River in Indonesia, and Hinchinbrook Channel in Australia. The final model is adapted to local conditions and extensively uses data assimilation especially for open boundary conditions. There can be a feedback between the hydrodynamics and the mud dynamics when the system silts; in wet tropical countries this can occur rapidly, sometimes in only 30 years. Electronic Publication     

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Review of water-energy-food Nexus tools to improve the Nexus modelling approach for integrated policy making

The synergies and trade-offs between the water, energy, and food sectors are represented by the Water-Energy-Food Nexus. The Nexus Approach is an integrated decision making practice that can be used by policy makers to optimize these synergies and manage trade-offs. In this paper, the direction of the Nexus Approach regarding the development of modelling tools is explored. The objective of this paper is to review the existing Nexus modelling tools used for integrated policy making to determine and to help policy makers, practitioners, and agencies trying to implement the Nexus Approach to identify a tool that is most suited to their modelling needs. The predominant capabilities of the current tools lie in the understanding of Nexus complexity, consideration of financial elements in the tools, recognition of the importance of multiple Nexus Approach directions, incorporation of different time scales, and enhanced tool accessibility. The main limitations are the extensive data requirements of current tools, and the poor synergy between tools assessing individual Nexus areas. This enhanced overview of the existing tools allows policy makers to maximize the synergies between the Nexus areas, to avoid consumption dilemmas, and to facilitate sustainable development.     

On the hydro-dispersive equivalence between multi-layered mineral barriers

In the context of municipal solid waste and hazardous waste disposal, the notion of "equivalence" between different barrier designs appears in regulatory documents from several industrialized countries. While in the past, equivalence has been thought of mainly in terms of contaminant travel times, in recent years it has been defined more in terms of the magnitude of a disposal site's potential impact on groundwater resources. This paper presents some original analytical solutions to the problem of contaminant migration through a multi-layered mineral barrier. The solutions account for the two major mechanisms of subsurface contaminant migration, namely, advection and diffusion-dispersion. An example application using the proposed solutions and a numerical model illustrates how one multi-layered mineral barrier can be considered superior to another from a strictly hydro-dispersive viewpoint. The influence of partial saturation of the mineral barrier is investigated using a numerical solution to the Richards equation for unsaturated flow. It is emphasized that conclusions relative to the superiority of one multi-layered barrier, with respect to another, should not only consider hydro-dispersive aspects, but also other processes such as the mechanical and chemical evolutions of the different barrier components. Although such phenomena are poorly addressed by existing models, failure to take them into account, at least in a qualitative fashion, may lead to unconservative conclusions with respect to barrier equivalence.     

Long-range transport and re-circulation of pollutants in the western Mediterranean during the project Regional Cycles of Air Pollution in the West-Central Mediterranean Area

During the warm season (March–September), high ozone concentrations have been reported at the coastal and mountain monitoring stations of the eastern Iberia coast (Millán et al., J. Geophys. Res. 102 (D7) 8811, J. Appl. Meteorol. 4 (2000) 487). The vegetation protection threshold of current Directive 92/72/EEC and the World Health Organisation guideline for the protection of crops and semi-natural vegetation are systematically exceeded during the whole period. The main objective of the present study is to search for the origin of these chronic pollution levels: to search for the reason(s) for such high O₃ concentrations during such a long period. A mesoscale model is used to reproduce the diurnal cycle of winds and stability/layering over the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB), at a sufficient space/temporal resolution, under a typical recursive synoptic condition during the warm season: data from the flight tracks of the European Project—Regional Cycles of Air Pollution in the West-Central Mediterranean Area—are used to substantiate the model results. Times of residence and the final distribution of pollutants entering the WMB are estimated using single-particle Lagrangian trajectories and a multiple-particle dispersion model. Our results show that the marine boundary layer and the lower troposphere in the region between the Balearic Islands and eastern Iberia are subject to a flow regime that tends to accumulate pollutants within large circulations, covering the entire western basin. We have also shown a diurnal pulsation of the Tramontana/Mistral wind regime, which can transport new pollutants into the area (background concentrations of 50–65 ppb of O₃ of continental European origin) that are added to local emissions and re-circulated within the coastal breezes at eastern Iberia for periods of more than five days. Local emissions and wind configuration contribute to increase the O₃ concentrations up to 100 ppb and even more.     

Integrated analysis of the effects of agricultural management on nitrogen fluxes at landscape scale

The integrated modelling system INITIATOR was applied to a landscape in the northern part of the Netherlands to assess current nitrogen fluxes to air and water and the impact of various agricultural measures on these fluxes, using spatially explicit input data on animal numbers, land use, agricultural management, meteorology and soil. Average model results on NH₃ deposition and N concentrations in surface water appear to be comparable to observations, but the deviation can be large at local scale, despite the use of high resolution data. Evaluated measures include: air scrubbers reducing NH₃ emissions from poultry and pig housing systems, low protein feeding, reduced fertilizer amounts and low-emission stables for cattle. Low protein feeding and restrictive fertilizer application had the largest effect on both N inputs and N losses, resulting in N deposition reductions on Natura 2000 sites of 10% and 12%, respectively.     

Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada

Estimating prediction uncertainty for a single tree-based model is hindered by the complex structure of these models. In this paper, we addressed this issue with a case study applied to northern hardwood stands in Québec, Canada. SaMARE is a stochastic single tree-based model that was designed for these types of stands. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the model can provide a mean predicted value and its confidence limits for some plot-level attributes.The mean predicted values were compared to observed values in terms of bias and accuracy. In addition to these common statistics, we compared nominal coverage of Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals with real (observed) coverage to verify the adequacy of the simulated uncertainty. A comparison was made using several plot-level attributes, which exhibited an increasing discriminative complexity. This complexity ranges from coarse attributes, such as all-species basal area, up to more complex ones, such as basal area for stems of a particular species and with sawlog potential.The results showed that in terms of absolute value, biases were small, but could be relatively high with respect to the average observed value when the discriminative complexity of the attribute increased. The comparison between nominal and real coverage of confidence intervals gave satisfactory results for all-species plot-level attributes. However, for some species-specific attributes, the Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals overestimated the real coverage.     

Different proxies for the reactivity of aquatic sediments towards oxygen: A model assessment

Information on benthic carbon mineralization rates is often derived from the analysis of oxygen microprofiles in sediments. To enable a direct comparison of different sediment environments, it is often desirable to characterize sediments by a single proxy that expresses their “reactivity” towards oxygen. For this, there are three commonly used proxies: the oxygen penetration depth (OPD), the oxygen flux at the sediment-water interface (DOU), and the maximum volumetric oxygen consumption rate (R_max). The OPD can be directly determined from the oxygen depth profile, while the DOU is usually obtained by a linear fit to the oxygen gradient either in diffusive boundary layer. The oxygen consumption rate R_max requires the fitting of a reactive-transport model to the data profile. This article shows that the OPD alone is a suboptimal proxy, because it shows a strong dependence on the half-saturation constant K_s, and secondly, because it is sensitive to the particular re-oxidation conditions right above the oxic-anoxic interface. Similarly, the volumetric oxygen consumption rate R_max is rather strongly dependent on the kinetic model formulation employed. To show this we fitted three different (Bouldin, Blackman and Monod) kinetics to the same oxygen data profiles. When fitting these models, the R_max values obtained differed by 20% for exactly the same oxygen profile. Accordingly, if one reports R_max values, it is crucial to specify the kinetic model alongside. Overall, DOU emerges as sediment reactivity proxy which is the least model dependent.