Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

Estimation of heavy metal emission fluxes on the territory of the NIS

As the result of our research, the specific procedures to use emission factor methodology were developed and applied for trace metal emission evaluation into the atmosphere over the territory of the former Soviet Union. The existing data on heavy metal emissions were revised as background information from official sources and expert estimations. Source categories and different initial information as well as the concept of spatial emission distribution were defined and observed. The calculated atmospheric emissions of lead, cadmium and mercury were produced among the main source categories of 12 NIS countries for 1990, 1995 and 1997, using modified emission coefficients.Total cadmium emissions into the atmosphere from determined source categories were estimated as 388.4 tonnes in 1990 for the whole domain with reduction by up to 207.0 tonnes per year for 1997. Mercury emissions were estimated as equal to 303.2 tonnes in 1990 and 159.8 tonnes in 1997. Lead emission amounted to 24903.0 tonnes in 1990, and 9652.5 tonnes in 1997.The results of the evaluation demonstrated the general trends of atmospheric heavy metal emissions with a greater decrease during the first half of the 1990s followed later by the rather stable level to be explained by recession in industrial activity and fuel consumption in NIS in that period. The significant spatial variations of atmospheric emissions over vast territories are described based on the results of their distribution according to 1×1 degree grid with remarkably higher values in the location of industrial cities.     

Comparing differential tolerance of native and non-indigenous marine species to metal pollution using novel assay techniques

Recent research suggests anthropogenic disturbance may disproportionately advantage non-indigenous species (NIS), aiding their establishment within impacted environments. This study used novel laboratory- and field-based toxicity testing to determine whether non-indigenous and native bryozoans (common within marine epibenthic communities worldwide) displayed differential tolerance to the common marine pollutant copper (Cu). In laboratory assays on adult colonies, NIS showed remarkable tolerance to Cu, with strong post-exposure recovery and growth. In contrast, native species displayed negative growth and reduced feeding efficiency across most exposure levels. Field transplant experiments supported laboratory findings, with NIS growing faster under Cu conditions. In field-based larval assays, NIS showed strong recruitment and growth in the presence of Cu relative to the native species. We suggest that strong selective pressures exerted by the toxic antifouling paints used on transport vectors (vessels), combined with metal contamination in estuarine environments, may result in metal tolerant NIS advantaged by anthropogenically modified selection regimes.     

表面活性剂（LAS＆NIS）的环境安全性评价

阴离子表面活性剂直链烷基苯磺酸盐(LAS)和非离子表面活性剂(NIS)是产量和消耗量都相当大的两类表面活性剂。文章从生物降解性、毒性及在环境和生物体内的累积性3个方面分析了它们的环境安全性，认为表面活性剂对环境会产生不同程度的影响。LAS对动植物有毒害，在环境中和生物体内有累积(尽管易降解)，应引起重视；NIS中脂肪醇聚氧乙烯醚(APEO)的降解产物毒性高、降解速度慢，对环境有很大的危害。