WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

Projections of hospitalised fall-related injury in NSW, Australia: impacts on the hospital and aged care sectors

Projections of the number, rate and cost of fall-related hospitalised injuries for individuals aged 65 years and older in New South Wales (NSW), Australia were estimated to 2051 for two scenarios: (1) demographic change only using 2008 admission rates; and (2) modelled change using negative binominal regression taking into account current trends in admission rates. Based on demographic change alone, the number and cost of fall injury hospitalisations among older people is expected to increase almost three-fold by 2051. Transfers to permanent residential aged care will also increase 3.2 fold. However, if the fall-related hospitalisation rate sustains its current trend, these increases are projected to be more than ten-fold by 2051. Even with demographic change alone, there will be a significant impact on the resources required to care for older people suffering a fall injury hospitalisation over the next forty years in NSW. The impact on the hospital and aged care sectors will be considerable unless significant improvements occur in the prevention and treatment of fall-related injury in older people.     

Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

Optimizing investment strategies for mangrove plantations by considering biological and economic parameters

Coastal deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar (formerly Burma) is addressed through the promotion of native-species mangrove plantations on cleared land formerly sustaining natural mangrove forests. To date there are no attempts to determine the optimal mangrove plantation strategy to maximize economic returns for private or communal plantation owners. We integrated empirical biological and economic data to suggest optimal mangrove plantation strategies in the region. We censused 4-yr oldAvicennia officinalis mangrove plantations in two townships to calculate survival and growth rates of mangroves planted using different techniques across an inundation gradient. We used the calculated rates to forecast the production of fuelwood, poles and posts at 10, 13 and 15 yr after establishment. We calculated the compound rate of growth for the three commodities over a 7-yr period, and then forecast commodity price for the same harvest intervals. Integration of those parameters in our model led us to conclude that both profit and the internal rate of return would be greatest for plantations of seedlings raised in polyethylene bags as opposed to bare-root or direct propagule planting. Therefore, the use of potted seedlings should be promoted, despite higher initial costs. The optimal rotation period varies according to ground level and planting technique. Optimizing economic returns for coastal plantations does not necessarily require a sacrifice of ecological benefits. Due to a discrepancy between official conversion quotes and local real value no conversion estimate in USD is given.     

Optimizing investment strategies for mangrove plantations by considering biological and economic parameters

Coastal deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar (formerly Burma) is addressed through the promotion of native-species mangrove plantations on cleared land formerly sustaining natural mangrove forests. To date there are no attempts to determine the optimal mangrove plantation strategy to maximize economic returns for private or communal plantation owners. We integrated empirical biological and economic data to suggest optimal mangrove plantation strategies in the region. We censused 4-yr oldAvicennia officinalis mangrove plantations in two townships to calculate survival and growth rates of mangroves planted using different techniques across an inundation gradient. We used the calculated rates to forecast the production of fuelwood, poles and posts at 10, 13 and 15 yr after establishment. We calculated the compound rate of growth for the three commodities over a 7-yr period, and then forecast commodity price for the same harvestintervals. Integration of those parameters in our model led us to conclude that both profit and the internal rate of return would be greatest for plantations of seedlings raised in polyethylene bags as opposed to bare-root or direct propagule planting. Therefore, the use of potted seedlings should be promoted, despite higher initial costs. The optimal rotation period varies according to ground level and planting technique. Optimizing economic returns for coastal plantations does not necessarily require a sacrifice of ecological benefits. Due to a discrepancy between official conversion quotes and local real value no conversion estimate in USD is given.     

Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong,but why?

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The principal objectives of the present study are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 non-fuel minerals covered in the earlier study, and, then, to attempt to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand: income, technological, regulatory and other public policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals are: aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.This follow-up study begins with a discussion of the need for long-term projections of minerals. This section also includes a summary of the major determinants of the long-term demand for, and supply of, minerals, and a review of some of the earlier assessments of mineral needs and availability.Section 3 of the article begins with a short summary of the World Input–Output Model, the main methodological tool used in the earlier study that was developed by Prof. Wassily Leontief, the 1973 Nobel laureate in economics, and the way in which non-fuel minerals were represented in that system. This section also provides a summary of other global modeling efforts of non-fuel minerals that were carried out at a similar point in time for a similar interval.Section 4 presents the actual population, GDP and per capita GDP changes over the 1970–2000 time interval compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the projected and observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight non-fuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared to the observed global consumption rates for the year 2000, the differences range from +43% for nickel to +229% for potash.Section 5 discusses the apparent reasons for the differences between the projected and observed global consumption rates of these non-fuel minerals that include differences in the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, changes in recycling rates (for the metallic minerals), technological change, and regulatory or other public policy changes that have affected mineral use over the 30-year-interval ending in 2000.In light of the data and analysis presented in Sections sec# and sec#, the article concludes with some remarks, made almost a quarter of a century ago, by Prof. Leontief on the need and justification for long-term projections.